Thesis Tracker
description: Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio
positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, and
thesis milestones over time. Use when updating a thesis with new
information, reviewing position rationale, or checking if a thesis is
still intact. Triggers on "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis
still intact", "thesis check", "add data point to [company]", or "review
my positions".
Workflow
Step 1: Define or Load Thesis
If creating a new thesis:
- Company: Name and ticker
- Position: Long or Short
- Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g.,
"Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as
mix shifts to software")
- Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments
- Key risks: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the
thesis
- Catalysts: Upcoming events that could
prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory
decisions)
- Target price / valuation: What's it worth if the
thesis plays out
- Stop-loss trigger: What would make you exit
If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point
or development.
Step 2: Update Log
For each new data point or development:
- Date: When this happened
- Data point: What changed (earnings beat, management
departure, competitor move, etc.)
- Thesis impact: Does this strengthen, weaken, or
neutralize a specific pillar?
- Action: No change / Increase position / Trim /
Exit
- Updated conviction: High / Medium / Low
Step 3: Thesis Scorecard
Maintain a running scorecard:
| Pillar |
Original Expectation |
Current Status |
Trend |
| Revenue growth >20% |
On track |
Q3 was 22% |
Stable |
| Margin expansion |
Behind |
Margins flat YoY |
Concerning |
| New product launch |
Pending |
Delayed to Q2 |
Watch |
Step 4: Catalyst Calendar
Track upcoming catalysts:
| Date |
Event |
Expected Impact |
Notes |
|
|
|
|
Step 5: Output
Thesis summary suitable for:
- Morning meeting discussion
- Portfolio review
- Risk committee presentation
Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent
updates, and current conviction level.
Important Notes
- A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's
not a thesis
- Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming
evidence
- Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has
happened
- If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio
thesis review
- Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced
across sessions