# market_model.xlsx 中文阅读版

- 原始文件：`source_repo/submissions/o3/w1_t2/submission/market_model.xlsx`
- 处理方式：本地提取原文并添加中文结构说明
- 阅读提示：这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 中文结构说明

这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 原文提取

## 工作表：Inputs

Parameter | Units | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F | 2029F | 2030F
NZ Population | millions | 5.08 | 5.12 | 5.17 | 5.21 | 5.25 | 5.29 | 5.33 | 5.37 | 5.41
Per-capita egg consumption | eggs/person/yr | 235 | 238 | 240 | 242 | 244 | 246 | 248 | 250 | 252
Domestic egg consumption | mn eggs |  | =C3*C2 | =D3*D2 | =E3*E2 | =F3*F2 | =G3*G2 | =H3*H2 | =I3*I2 | =J3*J2
National layer flock | mn hens | 3.8 | 3.75 | 3.65 | 3.6 | 3.55 | 3.52 | 3.5 | 3.48 | 3.48
Average lay rate | eggs/hen/yr | 330 | 330 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325
Egg production | mn eggs |  | =C5*C6 | =D5*D6 | =E5*E6 | =F5*F6 | =G5*G6 | =H5*H6 | =I5*I6 | =J5*J6
Surplus / (Deficit) | mn eggs |  | =C7-C3 | =D7-D3 | =E7-E3 | =F7-F3 | =G7-G3 | =H7-H3 | =I7-I3 | =J7-J3
Colony cages mix | % of hens | 70 | 60 | 50 | 40 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0
Barn mix | % of hens | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 45 | 55 | 60 | 60
Free-range mix | % of hens | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40
Aurora flock | k hens | 550 | 540 | 530 | 520 | 520 | 520 | 520 | 520 | 520
Aurora flock share | % |  | =C12*1e3/(C5*1e6) | =D12*1e3/(D5*1e6) | =E12*1e3/(E5*1e6) | =F12*1e3/(F5*1e6) | =G12*1e3/(G5*1e6) | =H12*1e3/(H5*1e6) | =I12*1e3/(I5*1e6) | =J12*1e3/(J5*1e6)
Feed cost index | 2024=100 | 95 | 102 | 100 | 103 | 105 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110
Farm-gate egg price | NZD/dozen | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.85 | 3.9 | 3.95 | 4

## 工作表：Market Forecast

Year | Egg Production (mn) | Domestic Consumption (mn) | Surplus/(Deficit) (mn) | Colony % | Barn % | Free-range %
2022 | =Inputs!C7 | =Inputs!C3 | =Inputs!C8 | =Inputs!C9 | =Inputs!C10 | =Inputs!C11
2023 | =Inputs!D7 | =Inputs!D3 | =Inputs!D8 | =Inputs!D9 | =Inputs!D10 | =Inputs!D11
2024 | =Inputs!E7 | =Inputs!E3 | =Inputs!E8 | =Inputs!E9 | =Inputs!E10 | =Inputs!E11
2025E | =Inputs!F7 | =Inputs!F3 | =Inputs!F8 | =Inputs!F9 | =Inputs!F10 | =Inputs!F11
2026F | =Inputs!G7 | =Inputs!G3 | =Inputs!G8 | =Inputs!G9 | =Inputs!G10 | =Inputs!G11
2027F | =Inputs!H7 | =Inputs!H3 | =Inputs!H8 | =Inputs!H9 | =Inputs!H10 | =Inputs!H11
2028F | =Inputs!I7 | =Inputs!I3 | =Inputs!I8 | =Inputs!I9 | =Inputs!I10 | =Inputs!I11
2029F | =Inputs!J7 | =Inputs!J3 | =Inputs!J8 | =Inputs!J9 | =Inputs!J10 | =Inputs!J11
2030F | =Inputs!K7 | =Inputs!K3 | =Inputs!K8 | =Inputs!K9 | =Inputs!K10 | =Inputs!K11

## 工作表：Transition Scenarios

Scenario | 2025 Colony % | 2027 Colony % | Notes
Base | 40 | 15 | Gradual transition per retailer pledge
Slow | 50 | 25 | Delayed capex results
Accelerated | 30 | 5 | Early conversion and decommissioning

## 工作表：Sensitivities

Variable | Low | Base | High | Units
Per-capita consumption growth | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | pct pts/yr
Feed cost index trend | -1 | 0 | 1 | index pts/yr
Farm-gate price elasticity | -0.2 | -0.15 | -0.1 | elasticity

## 工作表：Aurora Detail

Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F | 2029F | 2030F
Flock (k hens) | =Inputs!C12 | =Inputs!D12 | =Inputs!E12 | =Inputs!F12 | =Inputs!G12 | =Inputs!H12 | =Inputs!I12 | =Inputs!J12 | =Inputs!K12
Production (mn eggs) | =Aurora Detail!B2*Inputs!C6/1000 | =Aurora Detail!C2*Inputs!D6/1000 | =Aurora Detail!D2*Inputs!E6/1000 | =Aurora Detail!E2*Inputs!F6/1000 | =Aurora Detail!F2*Inputs!G6/1000 | =Aurora Detail!G2*Inputs!H6/1000 | =Aurora Detail!H2*Inputs!I6/1000 | =Aurora Detail!I2*Inputs!J6/1000 | =Aurora Detail!J2*Inputs!K6/1000

## 工作表：Readme

NZ Egg Market Model v1.0
------------------------------------------------------------
This workbook provides a historical view (2022-2024) and a five-year forward forecast (2025-2030) of the New Zealand shell-egg market.
Key features:
 • Editable Inputs sheet – update yellow cells as new diligence data arrives. Formulas will cascade.
 • Transition Scenarios – alternative colony-cage exit paths to test sensitivity.
 • Sensitivities – key demand and cost levers exposed for quick toggling.
 • Aurora Detail – isolates Aurora Eggs data for share analyses.
Assumptions are preliminary and must be validated in confirmatory diligence.