# market_model.xlsx 中文阅读版

- 原始文件：`source_repo/submissions/gpt-5-5/w1_t2/submission/market_model.xlsx`
- 处理方式：本地提取原文并添加中文结构说明
- 阅读提示：这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 中文结构说明

这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 原文提取

## 工作表：Assumptions

Project Albatross - NZ Egg Market Model |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Preliminary outside-in model for Aurora Eggs: historical sizing, 5-year forecast, cage-free transition scenarios and cost/supply sensitivities. Currency in NZD unless noted. Blue cells are refreshable assumptions; formulas are calculated on the other tabs. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Visual convention and model scope |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Cell category | Visual treatment | Reviewer note |  | Model scope | Historical FY22A-FY25E; forecast FY26F-FY30F. FY25 is estimated because public/Aurora latest full actuals in the source pool are FY24. The workbook keeps both retail-shelf top-down and calibrated all-channel producer/channel-pool views so the top-down vs bottom-up gap is visible rather than hidden. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Hardcoded input / assumption | Blue font on light-blue fill | Refresh as diligence arrives; source/vintage shown in Source column. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Same-tab calculation | Black font, no fill | Formula references cells on same worksheet. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Cross-sheet reference | Green font | Formula references another worksheet. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Key output | Bold on light-green fill | Primary model output read by deal team. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Source index used for refreshable assumptions |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Source / file | Date / vintage | Inputs used | Reliability / caveat |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora Eggs draft preliminary IM | 28 Feb 2026 | FY22-FY24 revenue/EBITDA/volume, sell-side FY25-FY30 revenue path, claimed capex and transition status | Sell-side; must be pressure-tested |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Broker outreach + Halberd internal brief | 20 Apr / 4 May 2026 | 610k layer hens, 40/30/30 production mix, ~70% retail, #2 share 17-19% | Broker/internal screening; triangulate |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Calthorpe expert transcripts Parts 1-3, 4, 5, 7 | 6-19 May 2026 / supplier annex 3 Jun 2026 | Flock, channel mix, premium path, conversion capex/timing, unit economics, input-cost sensitivities | Expert view; source of current-era estimates |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | EPFNZ / Marsden transcript | 7 May 2026 | 229 eggs per capita, official 3.4-3.5M flock, 33/33/34 official mix, channel shares, Phase 2 framing | Industry association; no company-level data |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | ACII Wave 11 + Egg Addendum | Feb-Mar 2026 | Per-capita forecast, dietary tailwinds, plant-based displacement, trade-down and WTP | Consumer survey; commissioned cut |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | RetailIQ NZ Q1 2026 scan | 1 Jan-31 Mar 2026 | Shelf prices, tier volumes within scan, own/cross elasticity | Q1-only scan; use prices/elasticity, not sole sizing anchor |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | NZ supermarket cage-free commitments summary | Compiled Sep 2025 | Foodstuffs and Woolworths packaged shell-egg cage-free deadline end-2027 | Public commitments, private-sector not regulation |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Halberd central financial assumptions | Apr 2026 | New Zealand CPI 2.7% | House view, quarterly refresh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Demand and channel assumptions |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Input | Unit | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | Source / vintage / note
 | NZ population | M people | 5.12729340789191 | 5.17343904856293 | 5.22 | 5.26698 | 5.31438282 | 5.36221226538 | 5.41047217576842 | 5.45916642535033 | 5.50829892317849 | 
 | Per-capita egg consumption | eggs/person/yr | 224 | 226 | 227 | 229 | 230 | 232 | 233 | 234 | 235 | 
 | Plant-based displacement - Base | % gross demand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.01 | 
 | Plant-based displacement - Downside | % gross demand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.018 | 0.025 | 
 | Plant-based displacement - Upside | % gross demand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 
 | Retail grocery volume share | % total volume | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 
 | Foodservice volume share | % total volume | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 
 | Industrial volume share | % total volume | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 
 | Direct / institutional / other share | % total volume | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 
Production-system, price and sizing anchors |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Input | Unit | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | Source / vintage / note
 | Colony share | % layer flock / volume | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.4 | 0.4 |  |  |  |  | 
 | Barn share | % layer flock / volume | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.2 |  |  |  |  | 
 | FR commodity share | % layer flock / volume | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.36 |  |  |  |  | 
 | Pasture / specialty share | % layer flock / volume | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |  |  |  |  | 
 | Avg retail shelf price - historical top-down | NZ$/doz | 5.75 | 6.05 | 6.3997614506501 | 6.7 |  |  |  |  |  | 
Point assumptions (base / low / high) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Input | Unit | Base | Low / downside | High / upside | Source / vintage / note |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 retail shelf price - colony | NZ$/doz | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 | Calthorpe Part 4 (13 May 2026): colony dozen retails ~NZ$5.40-5.80; midpoint NZ$5.60. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 retail shelf price - barn | NZ$/doz | 7 | 6.8 | 7.2 | Calthorpe Part 4: barn dozen retails ~NZ$6.80-7.20; RetailIQ Q1 2026 supports NZ$7-8 shelf depending banner. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 retail shelf price - pasture/specialty | NZ$/doz | 14 | 13 | 15 | RetailIQ NZ Q1 2026 scan: pasture-raised 1-doz packs around NZ$13.99-14.99; midpoint rounded. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 foodservice price - colony | NZ$/doz | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4 | Calthorpe Part 4: foodservice barn gate NZ$3.80-4.20 plus distributor margin; colony/value product assumed at lower end. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 foodservice price - barn | NZ$/doz | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | Calthorpe Part 4: producer gate NZ$3.80-4.20 + 12-18% distributor margin; midpoint channel price approx. NZ$4.60. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 industrial price - colony | NZ$/doz | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | Calthorpe Part 4: industrial shell producer gate NZ$3.20-3.60/doz; colony/value assumed at midpoint. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 industrial price - barn | NZ$/doz | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 | Calthorpe Part 4 industrial shell range; barn assumed slight premium to colony. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 direct / DTC price - colony | NZ$/doz | 6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | Deal-team estimate for farmgate/direct channel; direct is small residual, premium-weighted. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 direct / DTC price - barn | NZ$/doz | 7.5 | 7 | 8 | Deal-team estimate cross-checked against RetailIQ Q1 2026 shelf price levels; low model weight. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 direct / DTC price - FR commodity | NZ$/doz | 9.5 | 9 | 10 | Deal-team estimate; direct/free-range carries above-retail premium at farmgate/DTC specialty outlets. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 direct / DTC price - pasture/specialty | NZ$/doz | 15 | 14 | 16 | RetailIQ Q1 2026 + ACII WTP; specialty premium is small but high-price. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Annual price inflation / pass-through | % pa | 0.027 | 0.015 | 0.05 | Halberd central financial assumptions (Apr 2026): New Zealand CPI 2.7%; low/high sensitivity for input-cost pass-through. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY26 all-channel bottom-up anchor | NZ$M | 540 | 535 | 545 | Calthorpe Part 3 (11 May 2026): bottom-up production/channel value approx. NZ$535-545M; model calibrates raw price x volume to midpoint. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY24 retail top-down anchor | NZ$M | 455 | 445 | 465 | Antipodean Agri research Q3 2025 / Calthorpe Part 3: NZ retail shell-egg market approx. NZ$455M for FY24. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Top-down to all-channel uplift | % retail value | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.25 | Calthorpe Part 3: bottom-up exceeds retail-only top-down by approx. 19%; gap is foodservice, industrial, own-use/institutional/direct. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | National layer flock - FY26 current | M hens | 3.75 | 3.4 | 3.9 | Calthorpe Part 1/2: current bottom-up 3.7-3.8M vs official MPI 3.4-3.5M; use 3.75M central. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Layer productivity | eggs/hen/yr | 300 | 290 | 305 | EPFNZ (7 May 2026): 290-305 eggs/layer/yr; Calthorpe bottom-up uses 300. |  |  |  |  |  | 
Free-range premium path by scenario |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Scenario | Source / mechanic | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F |  |  |  |  | 
 | Base case | Calthorpe Part 3 central path 18% FY26 -> 14% FY27 -> 12% FY28; downside 8-10% if barn oversupply; upside 14-15% if marginal barn capacity does not arrive. | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |  |  |  |  | 
 | Upside / tight supply | Calthorpe Part 3 central path 18% FY26 -> 14% FY27 -> 12% FY28; downside 8-10% if barn oversupply; upside 14-15% if marginal barn capacity does not arrive. | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 |  |  |  |  | 
 | Downside / delay | Calthorpe Part 3 central path 18% FY26 -> 14% FY27 -> 12% FY28; downside 8-10% if barn oversupply; upside 14-15% if marginal barn capacity does not arrive. | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 |  |  |  |  | 
Consumer sensitivity, Aurora data and cost / supply sensitivities |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Input | Unit | Base | Low / downside | High / upside | Source / vintage / note |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FR commodity own-price elasticity | elasticity | -1.34 | -1.1 | -1.6 | RetailIQ NZ Q1 2026 scan: FR commodity own-price elasticity -1.34 (0.19), significant at 99%. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Barn own-price elasticity | elasticity | -0.81 | -0.6 | -1 | RetailIQ NZ Q1 2026 scan: barn own-price elasticity -0.81 (0.21). |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Barn -> FR cross-price elasticity | elasticity | 0.62 | 0.5 | 0.75 | RetailIQ NZ Q1 2026 scan: when barn prices rise, FR commodity gains; matrix row Barn -> column FR commodity +0.62. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FR -> barn cross-price elasticity | elasticity | 0.71 | 0.55 | 0.85 | RetailIQ NZ Q1 2026 scan: when FR commodity prices rise, barn gains; matrix row FR -> column Barn +0.71. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FR buyers actual trade-down | % buyers | 0.21 | 0.2 | 0.25 | ACII Egg Addendum (Mar 2026): 21% of free-range buyers actually switched within 12 weeks of NZ$30/week budget tightening; Calthorpe cites 20-25%. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora layer flock | 000 hens | 610 | 600 | 620 | Broker outreach (20 Apr 2026) and Halberd internal brief (4 May 2026): approx. 610k layer hens. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora colony share | % flock | 0.4 | 0.38 | 0.42 | Broker outreach / internal brief: 40% colony / 30% barn / 30% free-range. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora barn share | % flock | 0.3 | 0.28 | 0.32 | Broker outreach / internal brief: 40% colony / 30% barn / 30% free-range. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora free-range share | % flock | 0.3 | 0.28 | 0.32 | Broker outreach / internal brief: 40% colony / 30% barn / 30% free-range; Calthorpe confirms broad 40/30/30 from Mark McKenna comments. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora retail channel share | % revenue/volume | 0.72 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Calthorpe Part 2: Aurora approx. 72% retail; broker outreach says ~70% retail. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora foodservice share | % revenue/volume | 0.22 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Calthorpe Part 2: Aurora approx. 22% foodservice; broker outreach says ~25%. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora industrial share | % revenue/volume | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | Calthorpe Part 2: Aurora approx. 5% industrial; broker outreach says ~5%. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora direct / other share | % revenue/volume | 0.01 | 0 | 0.02 | Residual to sum channel mix; direct/farmgate not a focus for Aurora. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Conversion capex / colony bird | NZ$/bird | 55 | 45 | 65 | Calthorpe Part 2: NZ$45-65/bird all-in; Aurora expected mid-range NZ$52-58; EPFNZ corroborates low-40s to high-60s. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Consent lead time | months | 6 | 4 | 12 | Calthorpe Part 2: like-for-like 4-6 months if no notification; 9-12 months if public notification. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Physical build time | months | 15 | 12 | 18 | Calthorpe Part 2 / EPFNZ: 12-18 months once consents granted; Aurora likely 14-16 if existing envelopes reused. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | DOC / pullet lead time | months | 7.5 | 6 | 9 | Calthorpe Part 2 and supplier annex: 6-9 months order-to-delivery for meaningful pullet/DOC orders. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Equipment lead time | months | 11 | 9 | 14 | Supplier exposure annex / Calthorpe Part 7: 9-14 months for full barn fit-out from order to commissioning. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Feed cost per dozen | NZ$/doz | 1.98 | 1.85 | 2.1 | Supplier exposure annex (3 Jun 2026): FY24 feed cost NZ$1.85-2.10/doz depending system. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Feed share of variable cost | % variable cost | 0.6 | 0.55 | 0.65 | Supplier exposure annex / Calthorpe Part 7: feed 55-65% of variable cost. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | 10% grain spike margin hit | bps of revenue | 0.0095 | 0.008 | 0.011 | Supplier exposure annex: 10% spot grain spike compresses Aurora gross margin 80-110 bps for one to two quarters before pass-through. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Electricity tariff step-up | % increase | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0.22 | Supplier exposure annex: late-2027/28 tariff renewal risk +18-22% cumulative electricity inflation. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Electricity margin hit | bps of revenue | 0.0185 | 0.015 | 0.022 | Supplier exposure annex: 150-220 bps margin headwind on colony/barn lines if pass-through lags. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Labour share of variable cost | % variable cost | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0.22 | Supplier exposure annex: Aurora labour approx. 18-22% of variable cost. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Labour wage shock | % wage increase | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.07 | Sensitivity for migrant-policy / wage pressure through 2026-28; source: supplier exposure annex. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | ETS re-inclusion exposure - Aurora | NZ$M pa | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | Supplier exposure annex: if agriculture re-included, Aurora annual exposure NZ$0.5-1.5M depending scope/free allocation. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Delay revenue hit - Aurora 12mo | NZ$M | 14 | 10 | 18 | Calthorpe Part 3: if 244k colony birds lose retail access, approx. NZ$14M annual revenue hit. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Delay EBITDA hit - Aurora 12mo | NZ$M | 3.5 | 3 | 4 | Calthorpe Part 3: 12-month slippage could cost NZ$3-4M EBITDA; midpoint NZ$3.5M. |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Refresh note | When management data arrives, update blue assumption cells first, then check green outputs on the Forecast and Transition Scenarios tabs. The model intentionally preserves contested source tensions: official 2022 mix vs current expert read; sell-side capex/timeline vs expert capex/timeline; broker free-range premium vs retail-buyer evidence. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Historical Sizing

Historical market sizing (top-down and bottom-up bridge) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Uses FY24 NZ$455M retail shell-egg market as the top-down anchor; the residual uplift to all-channel reflects foodservice, industrial, direct/institutional and own-use volumes that are invisible in retail-only data. FY25 is a bridge estimate. |  |  |  |  |  | 
Metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | Source / calc note | 
A. Top-down retail shelf market |  |  |  |  |  | 
NZ population | =Assumptions!D25 | =Assumptions!E25 | =Assumptions!F25 | =Assumptions!G25 | Treasury demographic baseline / 0.9% pa short-run assumption. | 
Per-capita egg consumption | =Assumptions!D26 | =Assumptions!E26 | =Assumptions!F26 | =Assumptions!G26 | ACII Wave 11 actual/projection; FY22-FY23 estimated from EPFNZ trend. | 
Gross egg demand | =B8*B9/12 | =C8*C9/12 | =D8*D9/12 | =E8*E9/12 | Population × per-capita / 12. | 
Retail volume share | =Assumptions!D30 | =Assumptions!E30 | =Assumptions!F30 | =Assumptions!G30 | Retail share 72% within EPFNZ/Calthorpe 70-75% range. | 
Retail egg volume | =B10*B11 | =C10*C11 | =D10*D11 | =E10*E11 | Gross demand × retail share. | 
Avg retail shelf price | =Assumptions!D41 | =Assumptions!E41 | =Assumptions!F41 | =Assumptions!G41 | FY24 solved to tie NZ$455M; other years estimated until retailer history arrives. | 
Retail shelf market size | =B12*B13 | =C12*C13 | =D12*D13 | =E12*E13 | Retail top-down shelf value: retail dozens × avg shelf price. | 
YoY retail market growth |  | =C14/B14-1 | =D14/C14-1 | =E14/D14-1 | Growth in retail shelf market. | 
All-channel uplift vs retail-only | =Assumptions!$D$60 | =Assumptions!$D$60 | =Assumptions!$D$60 | =Assumptions!$D$60 | 19% uplift from retail top-down to all-channel Calthorpe bottom-up. | 
All-channel market value | =B14*(1+B16) | =C14*(1+C16) | =D14*(1+D16) | =E14*(1+E16) | All-channel market value estimate; use as broader market-size lens. | 
Non-retail / missing channel value | =B17-B14 | =C17-C14 | =D17-D14 | =E17-E14 | Value missing from retail-only lens (foodservice, industrial, own-use, direct). | 
B. Channel segmentation (value allocation of all-channel market) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Channel value (NZ$M) | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | Method / note | 
Retail grocery | =B14 | =C14 | =D14 | =E14 | Retail shelf top-down value from section A. | 
Foodservice | =B18*Assumptions!D31/(Assumptions!D31+Assumptions!D32+Assumptions!D33) | =C18*Assumptions!E31/(Assumptions!E31+Assumptions!E32+Assumptions!E33) | =D18*Assumptions!F31/(Assumptions!F31+Assumptions!F32+Assumptions!F33) | =E18*Assumptions!G31/(Assumptions!G31+Assumptions!G32+Assumptions!G33) | Non-retail gap allocated by channel volume shares. | 
Industrial | =B18*Assumptions!D32/(Assumptions!D31+Assumptions!D32+Assumptions!D33) | =C18*Assumptions!E32/(Assumptions!E31+Assumptions!E32+Assumptions!E33) | =D18*Assumptions!F32/(Assumptions!F31+Assumptions!F32+Assumptions!F33) | =E18*Assumptions!G32/(Assumptions!G31+Assumptions!G32+Assumptions!G33) | Non-retail gap allocated by channel volume shares. | 
Direct / institutional / other | =B18*Assumptions!D33/(Assumptions!D31+Assumptions!D32+Assumptions!D33) | =C18*Assumptions!E33/(Assumptions!E31+Assumptions!E32+Assumptions!E33) | =D18*Assumptions!F33/(Assumptions!F31+Assumptions!F32+Assumptions!F33) | =E18*Assumptions!G33/(Assumptions!G31+Assumptions!G32+Assumptions!G33) | Residual includes direct, institutional and own-use; split is provisional. | 
Total all-channel | =SUM(B23:B26) | =SUM(C23:C26) | =SUM(D23:D26) | =SUM(E23:E26) | Check: equals all-channel market value. | 
C. Production-system segmentation (retail value proxy) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Production system retail value (NZ$M) | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | Method / note | 
Colony | =B14*(Assumptions!D37*0.8)/(Assumptions!D37*0.8+Assumptions!D38*1+Assumptions!D39*1.3+Assumptions!D40*2) | =C14*(Assumptions!E37*0.8)/(Assumptions!E37*0.8+Assumptions!E38*1+Assumptions!E39*1.3+Assumptions!E40*2) | =D14*(Assumptions!F37*0.8)/(Assumptions!F37*0.8+Assumptions!F38*1+Assumptions!F39*1.3+Assumptions!F40*2) | =E14*(Assumptions!G37*0.8)/(Assumptions!G37*0.8+Assumptions!G38*1+Assumptions!G39*1.22+Assumptions!G40*2) | Volume mix × relative price index; official FY22 mix and current-era drift are source-contested. | 
Barn | =B14*(Assumptions!D38*1)/(Assumptions!D37*0.8+Assumptions!D38*1+Assumptions!D39*1.3+Assumptions!D40*2) | =C14*(Assumptions!E38*1)/(Assumptions!E37*0.8+Assumptions!E38*1+Assumptions!E39*1.3+Assumptions!E40*2) | =D14*(Assumptions!F38*1)/(Assumptions!F37*0.8+Assumptions!F38*1+Assumptions!F39*1.3+Assumptions!F40*2) | =E14*(Assumptions!G38*1)/(Assumptions!G37*0.8+Assumptions!G38*1+Assumptions!G39*1.22+Assumptions!G40*2) | Barn index = 1.00. | 
Free-range commodity | =B14*(Assumptions!D39*1.3)/(Assumptions!D37*0.8+Assumptions!D38*1+Assumptions!D39*1.3+Assumptions!D40*2) | =C14*(Assumptions!E39*1.3)/(Assumptions!E37*0.8+Assumptions!E38*1+Assumptions!E39*1.3+Assumptions!E40*2) | =D14*(Assumptions!F39*1.3)/(Assumptions!F37*0.8+Assumptions!F38*1+Assumptions!F39*1.3+Assumptions!F40*2) | =E14*(Assumptions!G39*1.22)/(Assumptions!G37*0.8+Assumptions!G38*1+Assumptions!G39*1.22+Assumptions!G40*2) | Free-range index uses 30% historical premium and FY25 compression. | 
Pasture / specialty | =B14*(Assumptions!D40*2)/(Assumptions!D37*0.8+Assumptions!D38*1+Assumptions!D39*1.3+Assumptions!D40*2) | =C14*(Assumptions!E40*2)/(Assumptions!E37*0.8+Assumptions!E38*1+Assumptions!E39*1.3+Assumptions!E40*2) | =D14*(Assumptions!F40*2)/(Assumptions!F37*0.8+Assumptions!F38*1+Assumptions!F39*1.3+Assumptions!F40*2) | =E14*(Assumptions!G40*2)/(Assumptions!G37*0.8+Assumptions!G38*1+Assumptions!G39*1.22+Assumptions!G40*2) | Specialty/pasture under 5% flock but high price index. | 
Total retail | =SUM(B32:B35) | =SUM(C32:C35) | =SUM(D32:D35) | =SUM(E32:E35) | Check: equals retail shelf market size. | 
D. Aurora historical data and market-share read-through |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | Source / note | 
Aurora revenue | 76.5 | 80.1 | 84.6 | 90.5 | FY22-FY24 actuals + FY25E from Aurora draft IM (28 Feb 2026). | 
Aurora volume | 11.8 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 13.886 | FY22-FY24 from Aurora draft IM; FY25E estimated at +6% volume growth until management volume data arrives. | 
Aurora EBITDA | 8.9 | 9.7 | 10.8 | =E41*D44 | FY22-FY24 from Aurora draft IM; FY25E assumes FY24 margin if not disclosed. | 
Aurora EBITDA margin | =B43/B41 | =C43/C41 | =D43/D41 | =E43/E41 | EBITDA / revenue. | 
Aurora revenue share of all-channel market | =B41/B17 | =C41/C17 | =D41/D17 | =E41/E17 | Revenue / all-channel market value. | 
Aurora volume share of gross egg demand | =B42/B10 | =C42/C10 | =D42/D10 | =E42/E10 | Reported volume / gross national egg demand; lower than 17-19% expert share due definition mismatch / Aurora hidden in public roster. | 
Aurora revenue / dozen | =B41/B42 | =C41/C42 | =D41/D42 | =E41/E42 | Revenue per reported dozen; confirm pack / channel definitions in data room. | 
Aurora implied eggs / layer (FY24 flock basis) | =B42*12/(Assumptions!$D$79/1000) | =C42*12/(Assumptions!$D$79/1000) | =D42*12/(Assumptions!$D$79/1000) | =E42*12/(Assumptions!$D$79/1000) | Reported dozen volume ×12 / 610k flock; a reconciliation flag, not a biological benchmark. | 

## 工作表：Forecast

5-year market forecast and sensitivities |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Forecast is demand-driven (population × per-capita eggs, net of consumer-displacement case), then price/mix is linked to the selected cage-free transition scenario. Use the blue dropdowns to change cases. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Selected transition scenario | Base case |  | Model read | Base case assumes barn-led compliance by end-2027, FR premium compressing from 18% to 12%, and modest plant-based displacement by FY30. Downside combines retailer-deadline slippage with barn oversupply and higher substitution. |  |  | 
Selected demand case | Base |  |  |  |  |  | 
Metric | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | Note | 
A. Demand forecast |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
NZ population | =Assumptions!H25 | =Assumptions!I25 | =Assumptions!J25 | =Assumptions!K25 | =Assumptions!L25 | Treasury/Stats NZ baseline; ~0.9% pa. | 
Per-capita egg consumption | =Assumptions!H26 | =Assumptions!I26 | =Assumptions!J26 | =Assumptions!K26 | =Assumptions!L26 | ACII Wave 11 projections. | 
Gross egg demand | =B9*B10/12 | =C9*C10/12 | =D9*D10/12 | =E9*E10/12 | =F9*F10/12 | Population × per-capita / 12. | 
Plant-based displacement | =IF($B$4="Downside",Assumptions!H28,IF($B$4="Upside",Assumptions!H29,Assumptions!H27)) | =IF($B$4="Downside",Assumptions!I28,IF($B$4="Upside",Assumptions!I29,Assumptions!I27)) | =IF($B$4="Downside",Assumptions!J28,IF($B$4="Upside",Assumptions!J29,Assumptions!J27)) | =IF($B$4="Downside",Assumptions!K28,IF($B$4="Upside",Assumptions!K29,Assumptions!K27)) | =IF($B$4="Downside",Assumptions!L28,IF($B$4="Upside",Assumptions!L29,Assumptions!L27)) | Dropdown selects Base / Downside / Upside displacement path. | 
Net shell-egg demand | =B11*(1-B12) | =C11*(1-C12) | =D11*(1-D12) | =E11*(1-E12) | =F11*(1-F12) | Gross demand net of selected consumer substitution case. | 
YoY net demand growth | =B13/'Historical Sizing'!E10-1 | =C13/B13-1 | =D13/C13-1 | =E13/D13-1 | =F13/E13-1 | Growth versus FY25 (FY26) or prior year. | 
B. Channel volume segmentation (MECE) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail grocery | =B13*Assumptions!H30 | =C13*Assumptions!I30 | =D13*Assumptions!J30 | =E13*Assumptions!K30 | =F13*Assumptions!L30 | Retail share base 72% of volume. | 
Foodservice | =B13*Assumptions!H31 | =C13*Assumptions!I31 | =D13*Assumptions!J31 | =E13*Assumptions!K31 | =F13*Assumptions!L31 | Foodservice 15% of volume. | 
Industrial | =B13*Assumptions!H32 | =C13*Assumptions!I32 | =D13*Assumptions!J32 | =E13*Assumptions!K32 | =F13*Assumptions!L32 | Industrial 10% of volume. | 
Direct / other | =B13*Assumptions!H33 | =C13*Assumptions!I33 | =D13*Assumptions!J33 | =E13*Assumptions!K33 | =F13*Assumptions!L33 | Direct/institutional/own-use explicit 3% residual. | 
Check - total | =SUM(B18:B21) | =SUM(C18:C21) | =SUM(D18:D21) | =SUM(E18:E21) | =SUM(F18:F21) | Check equals net shell-egg demand. | 
C. Production-system mix from selected transition scenario |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Colony share | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$C$6:$C$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A26) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$D$6:$D$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A26) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$E$6:$E$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A26) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$F$6:$F$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A26) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$G$6:$G$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A26) | Current FY26 estimate 40% colony; scenario moves cohort by end-2027. | 
Barn share | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$C$6:$C$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A27) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$D$6:$D$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A27) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$E$6:$E$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A27) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$F$6:$F$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A27) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$G$6:$G$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A27) | Barn is the primary lower-cost conversion destination in Base. | 
Free-range commodity share | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$C$6:$C$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A28) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$D$6:$D$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A28) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$E$6:$E$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A28) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$F$6:$F$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A28) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$G$6:$G$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A28) | Commodity FR is premium-bearing but price-elastic. | 
Pasture / specialty share | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$C$6:$C$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A29) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$D$6:$D$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A29) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$E$6:$E$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A29) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$F$6:$F$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A29) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$G$6:$G$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A29) | Pasture/specialty small but high-price/durable. | 
Check - system mix | =SUM(B26:B29) | =SUM(C26:C29) | =SUM(D26:D29) | =SUM(E26:E29) | =SUM(F26:F29) | Check should equal 100%. | 
Stranded colony share | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$C$6:$C$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A31) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$D$6:$D$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A31) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$E$6:$E$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A31) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$F$6:$F$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A31) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$G$6:$G$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A31) | Post-deadline colony share forced out of retail in Downside. | 
FR premium over barn | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$C$6:$C$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A32) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$D$6:$D$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A32) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$E$6:$E$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A32) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$F$6:$F$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A32) | =SUMIFS('Transition Scenarios'!$G$6:$G$29,'Transition Scenarios'!$A$6:$A$29,$B$3,'Transition Scenarios'!$B$6:$B$29,$A32) | Scenario-specific premium path; central 18%→14%→12%. | 
D. Price/mix build and market-size forecast |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail shelf price - colony | =Assumptions!$D$46*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0 | =Assumptions!$D$46*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1 | =Assumptions!$D$46*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2 | =Assumptions!$D$46*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3 | =Assumptions!$D$46*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4 | Calthorpe Part 4 midpoint inflated by NZ CPI. | 
Retail shelf price - barn | =Assumptions!$D$47*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0 | =Assumptions!$D$47*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1 | =Assumptions!$D$47*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2 | =Assumptions!$D$47*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3 | =Assumptions!$D$47*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4 | Barn shelf price midpoint inflated by NZ CPI. | 
Retail shelf price - FR commodity | =B37*(1+B32) | =C37*(1+C32) | =D37*(1+D32) | =E37*(1+E32) | =F37*(1+F32) | Barn shelf price × scenario FR premium. | 
Retail shelf price - pasture/specialty | =Assumptions!$D$48*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0 | =Assumptions!$D$48*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1 | =Assumptions!$D$48*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2 | =Assumptions!$D$48*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3 | =Assumptions!$D$48*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4 | RetailIQ Q1 2026 specialty price midpoint. | 
Weighted retail shelf price | =SUMPRODUCT(B26:B29,B36:B39) | =SUMPRODUCT(C26:C29,C36:C39) | =SUMPRODUCT(D26:D29,D36:D39) | =SUMPRODUCT(E26:E29,E36:E39) | =SUMPRODUCT(F26:F29,F36:F39) | System-mix weighted retail shelf price. | 
Retail shelf market value (unscaled) | =B18*B40 | =C18*C40 | =D18*D40 | =E18*E40 | =F18*F40 | Retail top-down shelf-value lens; not calibrated. | 
Foodservice weighted channel price | =B26*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+B27*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+B28*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)*(1+B32*0.8))+B29*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0) | =C26*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+C27*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+C28*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)*(1+C32*0.8))+C29*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1) | =D26*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+D27*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+D28*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)*(1+D32*0.8))+D29*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2) | =E26*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+E27*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+E28*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)*(1+E32*0.8))+E29*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3) | =F26*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+F27*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+F28*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)*(1+F32*0.8))+F29*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4) | Weighted by production system; FS prices lower than retail shelf. | 
Foodservice channel value (raw) | =B19*B42 | =C19*C42 | =D19*D42 | =E19*E42 | =F19*F42 | Foodservice volume × weighted FS price. | 
Industrial weighted channel price | =B26*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+B27*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+B28*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)*(1+B32*0.3))+B29*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0) | =C26*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+C27*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+C28*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)*(1+C32*0.3))+C29*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1) | =D26*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+D27*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+D28*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)*(1+D32*0.3))+D29*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2) | =E26*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+E27*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+E28*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)*(1+E32*0.3))+E29*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3) | =F26*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+F27*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+F28*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)*(1+F32*0.3))+F29*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4) | Industrial price; lower/no full welfare premium. | 
Industrial channel value (raw) | =B20*B44 | =C20*C44 | =D20*D44 | =E20*E44 | =F20*F44 | Industrial volume × weighted industrial price. | 
Direct/other weighted channel price | =B26*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+B27*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+B28*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+B29*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0) | =C26*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+C27*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+C28*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+C29*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1) | =D26*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+D27*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+D28*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+D29*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2) | =E26*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+E27*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+E28*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+E29*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3) | =F26*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+F27*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+F28*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+F29*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4) | Small direct/other channel, premium-weighted. | 
Direct/other channel value (raw) | =B21*B46 | =C21*C46 | =D21*D46 | =E21*E46 | =F21*F46 | Direct/other volume × weighted price. | 
Raw all-channel value before retail-access haircut | =SUM(B41,B43,B45,B47) | =SUM(C41,C43,C45,C47) | =SUM(D41,D43,D45,D47) | =SUM(E41,E43,E45,E47) | =SUM(F41,F43,F45,F47) | Raw price × volume before scenario-specific stranded colony haircut. | 
Retail-access haircut on stranded colony volume | =B13*B31*Assumptions!H30*MAX(0,B36-(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)) | =C13*C31*Assumptions!I30*MAX(0,C36-(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)) | =D13*D31*Assumptions!J30*MAX(0,D36-(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)) | =E13*E31*Assumptions!K30*MAX(0,E36-(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)) | =F13*F31*Assumptions!L30*MAX(0,F36-(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)) | Downside only: colony after 2027 loses retail access and shifts toward industrial outlet value. | 
Raw all-channel value after haircut | =B48-B49 | =C48-C49 | =D48-D49 | =E48-E49 | =F48-F49 | Raw all-channel value after retail-access haircut. | 
Calibration factor to Calthorpe bottom-up anchor | =Assumptions!$D$58/B50 | =$B$51 | =$B$51 | =$B$51 | =$B$51 | Calibration to Calthorpe bottom-up anchor; update when data improves. | 
Calibrated all-channel market size | =B50*B51 | =C50*C51 | =D50*D51 | =E50*E51 | =F50*F51 | Primary market-size forecast (all-channel calibrated). | 
YoY calibrated market growth | =B52/'Historical Sizing'!E17-1 | =C52/B52-1 | =D52/C52-1 | =E52/D52-1 | =F52/E52-1 | Growth in calibrated market size. | 
Implied Aurora revenue share (sell-side path) | =96.8/B52 | =103.5/C52 | =110.7/D52 | =118.4/E52 | =126.7/F52 | Aurora sell-side revenue path / calibrated market size; tests 17-19% share claim. | 
E. Calibrated value segmentation (MECE by channel and production system) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail grocery value (calibrated) | =(B41-B49)*B51 | =(C41-C49)*C51 | =(D41-D49)*D51 | =(E41-E49)*E51 | =(F41-F49)*F51 | Retail value less stranded-volume haircut, then calibrated. | 
Foodservice value (calibrated) | =B43*B51 | =C43*C51 | =D43*D51 | =E43*E51 | =F43*F51 | Foodservice value calibrated. | 
Industrial value (calibrated) | =B45*B51 | =C45*C51 | =D45*D51 | =E45*E51 | =F45*F51 | Industrial value calibrated. | 
Direct / other value (calibrated) | =B47*B51 | =C47*C51 | =D47*D51 | =E47*E51 | =F47*F51 | Direct/other value calibrated. | 
Total channel value | =SUM(B58:B61) | =SUM(C58:C61) | =SUM(D58:D61) | =SUM(E58:E61) | =SUM(F58:F61) | Check equals calibrated market size. | 
Colony value (calibrated, post-haircut) | =B13*B26*((Assumptions!H30)*B36+(Assumptions!H31)*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+(Assumptions!H32)*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+(Assumptions!H33)*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0))*B51-B49*B51 | =C13*C26*((Assumptions!I30)*C36+(Assumptions!I31)*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+(Assumptions!I32)*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+(Assumptions!I33)*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1))*C51-C49*C51 | =D13*D26*((Assumptions!J30)*D36+(Assumptions!J31)*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+(Assumptions!J32)*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+(Assumptions!J33)*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2))*D51-D49*D51 | =E13*E26*((Assumptions!K30)*E36+(Assumptions!K31)*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+(Assumptions!K32)*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+(Assumptions!K33)*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3))*E51-E49*E51 | =F13*F26*((Assumptions!L30)*F36+(Assumptions!L31)*(Assumptions!$D$49*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+(Assumptions!L32)*(Assumptions!$D$51*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+(Assumptions!L33)*(Assumptions!$D$53*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4))*F51-F49*F51 | Colony value net of retail-access haircut. | 
Barn value (calibrated) | =B13*B27*((Assumptions!H30)*B37+(Assumptions!H31)*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+(Assumptions!H32)*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+(Assumptions!H33)*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0))*B51 | =C13*C27*((Assumptions!I30)*C37+(Assumptions!I31)*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+(Assumptions!I32)*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+(Assumptions!I33)*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1))*C51 | =D13*D27*((Assumptions!J30)*D37+(Assumptions!J31)*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+(Assumptions!J32)*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+(Assumptions!J33)*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2))*D51 | =E13*E27*((Assumptions!K30)*E37+(Assumptions!K31)*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+(Assumptions!K32)*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+(Assumptions!K33)*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3))*E51 | =F13*F27*((Assumptions!L30)*F37+(Assumptions!L31)*(Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+(Assumptions!L32)*(Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+(Assumptions!L33)*(Assumptions!$D$54*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4))*F51 | Barn value. | 
Free-range commodity value (calibrated) | =B13*B28*((Assumptions!H30)*B38+(Assumptions!H31)*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)*(1+B32*0.8))+(Assumptions!H32)*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)*(1+B32*0.3))+(Assumptions!H33)*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0))*B51 | =C13*C28*((Assumptions!I30)*C38+(Assumptions!I31)*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)*(1+C32*0.8))+(Assumptions!I32)*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)*(1+C32*0.3))+(Assumptions!I33)*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1))*C51 | =D13*D28*((Assumptions!J30)*D38+(Assumptions!J31)*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)*(1+D32*0.8))+(Assumptions!J32)*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)*(1+D32*0.3))+(Assumptions!J33)*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2))*D51 | =E13*E28*((Assumptions!K30)*E38+(Assumptions!K31)*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)*(1+E32*0.8))+(Assumptions!K32)*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)*(1+E32*0.3))+(Assumptions!K33)*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3))*E51 | =F13*F28*((Assumptions!L30)*F38+(Assumptions!L31)*((Assumptions!$D$50*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)*(1+F32*0.8))+(Assumptions!L32)*((Assumptions!$D$52*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)*(1+F32*0.3))+(Assumptions!L33)*(Assumptions!$D$55*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4))*F51 | FR commodity value; premium path selected in scenario. | 
Pasture / specialty value (calibrated) | =B13*B29*((Assumptions!H30)*B39+(Assumptions!H31)*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+(Assumptions!H32)*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0)+(Assumptions!H33)*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^0))*B51 | =C13*C29*((Assumptions!I30)*C39+(Assumptions!I31)*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+(Assumptions!I32)*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1)+(Assumptions!I33)*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^1))*C51 | =D13*D29*((Assumptions!J30)*D39+(Assumptions!J31)*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+(Assumptions!J32)*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2)+(Assumptions!J33)*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^2))*D51 | =E13*E29*((Assumptions!K30)*E39+(Assumptions!K31)*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+(Assumptions!K32)*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3)+(Assumptions!K33)*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^3))*E51 | =F13*F29*((Assumptions!L30)*F39+(Assumptions!L31)*(8.5*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+(Assumptions!L32)*(4*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4)+(Assumptions!L33)*(Assumptions!$D$56*(1+Assumptions!$D$57)^4))*F51 | Pasture/specialty value. | 
Total system value | =SUM(B64:B67) | =SUM(C64:C67) | =SUM(D64:D67) | =SUM(E64:E67) | =SUM(F64:F67) | Check equals calibrated market size. | 
F. Consumer-demand sensitivity (FY30 volume cases) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Demand case | FY30 plant-based displacement | FY30 net demand (M doz) | Delta vs base | Mechanic / note |  |  | 
Upside | =Assumptions!J29 | =Assumptions!J25*Assumptions!J26/12*(1-B74) | =C74-$C$75 | No plant-based displacement; provenance and retailer assortment shield shell eggs. |  |  | 
Base | =Assumptions!J27 | =Assumptions!J25*Assumptions!J26/12*(1-B75) | =0 | Partial displacement as plant-based remains niche but grows in flexitarian segment. |  |  | 
Downside | =Assumptions!J28 | =Assumptions!J25*Assumptions!J26/12*(1-B76) | =C76-$C$75 | 2.5% displacement by FY30, consistent with top end of ACII contingent risk if retailers range mainstream SKUs. |  |  | 
Sensitivity | Input | Formula / read | Illustrative impact |  |  |  | 
FR commodity price +5% | =Assumptions!$D$74 | FR own-price elasticity × +5% price move | =B81*5% |  |  |  | 
Barn price +5% | =Assumptions!$D$76 | Barn->FR cross-price elasticity × +5% barn price move | =B82*5% |  |  |  | 
Budget trade-down | =Assumptions!$D$78 | Actual FR buyers switching to barn/colony under NZ$30/wk budget event | =B83 |  |  |  | 
G. Cost-side and supply-side sensitivities (Aurora impact, NZ$M) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Sensitivity | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | Mechanic / source | 
Feed grain +10% - Base | =96.8*Assumptions!$D$94*0.5 | =103.5*Assumptions!$D$94*0.5 | =110.7*Assumptions!$D$94*0.5 | =118.4*Assumptions!$D$94*0.5 | =126.7*Assumptions!$D$94*0.5 | Supplier annex: 10% spot grain spike compresses gross margin 80-110 bps for one to two quarters; base uses 95 bps for half-year lag. | 
Feed grain +10% - Low | =96.8*Assumptions!$E$94*0.5 | =103.5*Assumptions!$E$94*0.5 | =110.7*Assumptions!$E$94*0.5 | =118.4*Assumptions!$E$94*0.5 | =126.7*Assumptions!$E$94*0.5 | Low bps case. | 
Feed grain +10% - High | =96.8*Assumptions!$F$94*0.5 | =103.5*Assumptions!$F$94*0.5 | =110.7*Assumptions!$F$94*0.5 | =118.4*Assumptions!$F$94*0.5 | =126.7*Assumptions!$F$94*0.5 | High bps case. | 
Electricity step-up - Base | =0 | =0 | =110.7*(D26+D27)*Assumptions!$D$96 | =118.4*(E26+E27)*Assumptions!$D$96 | =126.7*(F26+F27)*Assumptions!$D$96 | Late-2027/28 tariff renewal: 150-220 bps margin hit on colony/barn lines; zero before FY28. | 
Electricity step-up - Low | =0 | =0 | =110.7*(D26+D27)*Assumptions!$E$96 | =118.4*(E26+E27)*Assumptions!$E$96 | =126.7*(F26+F27)*Assumptions!$E$96 | Low bps case. | 
Electricity step-up - High | =0 | =0 | =110.7*(D26+D27)*Assumptions!$F$96 | =118.4*(E26+E27)*Assumptions!$F$96 | =126.7*(F26+F27)*Assumptions!$F$96 | High bps case. | 
Labour wage shock - Base | =96.8*Assumptions!$D$97*Assumptions!$D$98*0.5 | =103.5*Assumptions!$D$97*Assumptions!$D$98*0.5 | =110.7*Assumptions!$D$97*Assumptions!$D$98*0.5 | =118.4*Assumptions!$D$97*Assumptions!$D$98*0.5 | =126.7*Assumptions!$D$97*Assumptions!$D$98*0.5 | Labour 18-22% of variable cost × wage shock × 50% pass-through lag. | 
Labour wage shock - Low | =96.8*Assumptions!$E$97*Assumptions!$E$98*0.5 | =103.5*Assumptions!$E$97*Assumptions!$E$98*0.5 | =110.7*Assumptions!$E$97*Assumptions!$E$98*0.5 | =118.4*Assumptions!$E$97*Assumptions!$E$98*0.5 | =126.7*Assumptions!$E$97*Assumptions!$E$98*0.5 | Low case. | 
Labour wage shock - High | =96.8*Assumptions!$F$97*Assumptions!$F$98*0.5 | =103.5*Assumptions!$F$97*Assumptions!$F$98*0.5 | =110.7*Assumptions!$F$97*Assumptions!$F$98*0.5 | =118.4*Assumptions!$F$97*Assumptions!$F$98*0.5 | =126.7*Assumptions!$F$97*Assumptions!$F$98*0.5 | High case. | 
ETS re-inclusion exposure | =0 | =0 | =Assumptions!$D$99 | =Assumptions!$D$99 | =Assumptions!$D$99 | ETS re-inclusion risk applied FY28+; Aurora NZ$0.5-1.5M annual range in source. | 
12mo delay EBITDA hit | =IF(B31>0,Assumptions!$D$101*(B31/0.1),0) | =IF(C31>0,Assumptions!$D$101*(C31/0.1),0) | =IF(D31>0,Assumptions!$D$101*(D31/0.1),0) | =IF(E31>0,Assumptions!$D$101*(E31/0.1),0) | =IF(F31>0,Assumptions!$D$101*(F31/0.1),0) | Calthorpe Part 3 12-month colony transition slippage EBITDA hit, scaled to scenario stranded share. | 
Aurora sell-side revenue path used in sensitivity rows: FY26 NZ$96.8M, FY27 NZ$103.5M, FY28 NZ$110.7M, FY29 NZ$118.4M, FY30 NZ$126.7M (Aurora draft IM, 28 Feb 2026). |  |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Transition Scenarios

Cage-free transition scenarios |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Named scenarios covering how the national colony cohort, and Aurora's own colony cohort, transition by the end-2027 retailer pledge. These rows feed the Forecast tab scenario selector. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
A. Normalized scenario table (feeds Forecast tab) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Metric | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | Source / mechanic
Base case | Colony share | 0.4 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Barn-led compliant transition: colony cohort exits retail shelves by end-2027; most conversion lands in barn capacity; FR premium compresses per expert central case.
Base case | Barn share | 0.2 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 
Base case | Free-range commodity share | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.4 | 0.41 | 
Base case | Pasture / specialty share | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 
Base case | FR premium over barn | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 
Base case | Stranded colony share | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 
Base case | Conversion capex per colony bird | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 
Base case | Aurora colony share | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 
Upside / tight supply | Colony share | 0.4 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Earlier compliance plus more free-range/specialty conversion; long-tail exits tighten supply and support the free-range premium.
Upside / tight supply | Barn share | 0.2 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 
Upside / tight supply | Free-range commodity share | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 
Upside / tight supply | Pasture / specialty share | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 
Upside / tight supply | FR premium over barn | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 
Upside / tight supply | Stranded colony share | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 
Upside / tight supply | Conversion capex per colony bird | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 
Upside / tight supply | Aurora colony share | 0.4 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 
Downside / delay | Colony share | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 | Consent / DOC / equipment bottlenecks; some colony volume slips beyond the retailer deadline and is forced into lower-price non-retail channels; barn oversupply compresses FR premium.
Downside / delay | Barn share | 0.2 | 0.34 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.6 | 
Downside / delay | Free-range commodity share | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 
Downside / delay | Pasture / specialty share | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 
Downside / delay | FR premium over barn | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 
Downside / delay | Stranded colony share | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 | 
Downside / delay | Conversion capex per colony bird | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 
Downside / delay | Aurora colony share | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 | 
B. Scenario definitions and outputs |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Mechanic | End-2027 compliance | FY28 colony share | FY28 FR premium | Retail-access loss? | Model implication | 
Base case | Barn-led compliant transition: colony cohort exits retail shelves by end-2027; most conversion lands in barn capacity; FR premium compresses per expert central case. | Yes | 0 | 0.12 | No | Most colony capacity converts to barn; market value grows with modest volume and price/mix, but FR premium compresses. | 
Upside / tight supply | Earlier compliance plus more free-range/specialty conversion; long-tail exits tighten supply and support the free-range premium. | Yes | 0 | 0.15 | No | Tighter cage-free supply supports pricing and specialty/FR mix; higher conversion capex. | 
Downside / delay | Consent / DOC / equipment bottlenecks; some colony volume slips beyond the retailer deadline and is forced into lower-price non-retail channels; barn oversupply compresses FR premium. | No | 0.1 | 0.08 | Yes | Post-deadline colony volume receives retail-access haircut; barn oversupply compresses FR premium. | 
C. Aurora colony-to-barn conversion economics |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Metric | Base | Low / downside | High / upside | Formula / source note |  |  | 
Aurora layer flock (000 hens) | =Assumptions!$D$79 | =Assumptions!$E$79 | =Assumptions!$F$79 | Broker outreach / internal brief. |  |  | 
Aurora colony share | =Assumptions!$D$80 | =Assumptions!$E$80 | =Assumptions!$F$80 | 40% colony / 30% barn / 30% FR. |  |  | 
Aurora colony birds (000) | =B42*B43 | =C42*C43 | =D42*D43 | Layer flock × colony share. |  |  | 
Conversion capex / colony bird | =Assumptions!$D$87 | =Assumptions!$E$87 | =Assumptions!$F$87 | Calthorpe/EPFNZ NZ$45-65/bird; Aurora mid-range. |  |  | 
Aurora conversion capex (NZ$M) | =B44*B45/1000 | =C44*C45/1000 | =D44*D45/1000 | Implied capex: highlights sell-side NZ$8-10M vs expert NZ$11-16M tension. |  |  | 
Consent + build + DOC lead time (months) | =Assumptions!$D$88+Assumptions!$D$89 | =Assumptions!$E$88+Assumptions!$E$89 | =Assumptions!$F$88+Assumptions!$F$89 | DOC/pullet lead can run partly in parallel with build; timing risk remains if consents not started. |  |  | 
12-month slippage revenue hit (NZ$M) | =Assumptions!$D$100 | =Assumptions!$E$100 | =Assumptions!$F$100 | Calthorpe Part 3 stranded colony volume math. |  |  | 
12-month slippage EBITDA hit (NZ$M) | =Assumptions!$D$101 | =Assumptions!$E$101 | =Assumptions!$F$101 | Calthorpe Part 3: NZ$3-4M EBITDA hit per year of slippage. |  |  | 
D. Cost-side and supply-side underwriting sensitivities (Aurora lens) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Sensitivity | Mechanic | Base impact | Low | High | Formula / note |  | 
Feed grain spike | 10% spot grain spike; pass-through lag 1-2 quarters | =Forecast!B89 | =Forecast!B90 | =Forecast!B91 | Uses supplier annex 80-110 bps margin hit; Forecast tab calculates impact on Aurora revenue. |  | 
Electricity step-up FY28+ | +18-22% tariff renewal; colony/barn lines most exposed | =Forecast!D93 | =Forecast!D94 | =Forecast!D95 | Uses supplier annex 150-220 bps margin hit on colony/barn revenue after late-2027 tariff renewal. |  | 
Labour wage pressure | Labour 18-22% of variable cost; wage inflation sensitivity | =Forecast!D97 | =Forecast!D98 | =Forecast!D99 | Illustrative annual EBITDA pressure from labour wage shock. |  | 
ETS re-inclusion | Policy reversibility after 2026 election cycle | =Assumptions!$D$99 | =Assumptions!$E$99 | =Assumptions!$F$99 | Supplier annex: Aurora NZ$0.5-1.5M annual exposure depending scope/free allocation. |  | 
DOC / equipment lead times | 6-9 months pullets; 9-14 months equipment; 12-18 months build | Timing risk | No slack | Potential 2Q+ slip | Supply-side sensitivity is modeled through Downside / delay transition scenario and stranded-volume haircut. |  |