# market_model.xlsx 中文阅读版

- 原始文件：`source_repo/submissions/glm-5-2/w1_t2/submission/market_model.xlsx`
- 处理方式：本地提取原文并添加中文结构说明
- 阅读提示：这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 中文结构说明

这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 原文提取

## 工作表：Cover

 | Halberd Capital Partners  |  Project Albatross |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | NZ Shell-Egg Market Model — Aurora Eggs Ltd |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Preliminary outside-in commercial due diligence  |  Pre-LOI / indicative-bid prep  |  Working model — refresh as diligence arrives |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Purpose | Quantitative foundation for the deal team: historical market size (3 yrs), 5-yr forecast, cage-ban transition scenarios for the colony cohort by end-2027, Aurora flock data, consumer-demand sensitivity, and the cost-side / supply-side sensitivities that bear on the underwriting horizon. |  |  |  |  | 
 | Stage discipline | Preliminary outside-in DD (pre-LOI). Built from public sources, expert interviews, sell-side IM, scan data. No data-room access, no audited financials. Findings, risks and open questions carry equal weight. NO invest / pass / continue-diligence verdict — the IC owns the verdict; the deal team owns the evidentiary surface. |  |  |  |  | 
 | Currency convention | Headline figures in USD (Halberd reporting convention). FX from the central financial assumptions workbook (FY22-25 historical; FY26-30 forecast — applied by year, not flat spot). NZD shown side-by-side as native reference only. |  |  |  |  | 
 | Refreshability | All hardcoded inputs live on the Assumptions tab with source + vintage. Update an input there and the model recalculates. Untraceable inputs are flagged 'vintage TBC'. |  |  |  |  | 
 | Reconciliation | Top-down (retail) vs bottom-up (all-channel production) surfaced and explained, not hidden. The residual gap = foodservice + industrial + institutional/own-use + direct (Calthorpe P3). |  |  |  |  | 
 | Scenarios | ≥3 named transition scenarios (On-Time / Capacity-Gap / Premium-Collapse) with driver, consequence, breakeven. Supply-driven scenarios model the price response (no flat prices). |  |  |  |  | 
 | Sensitivities | Mandatory tables: FX, free-range price-tier trajectory, conversion timing (3 scenarios + breakeven each), plus cost-side (feed grain, electricity) and supply-side (DOC delay, HPAI) sensitivities. |  |  |  |  | 
Tab index |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Tab | Contents |  |  |  |  | 
 | Cover | This page |  |  |  |  | 
 | Legend | Cell-type visual convention |  |  |  |  | 
 | Assumptions | All hardcoded inputs — source + vintage (refresh here) |  |  |  |  | 
 | Market_Sizing | Top-down (retail) + bottom-up (all-channel) + reconciliation; historical 3yr & forecast |  |  |  |  | 
 | Forecast | 5-yr forecast by channel × production system; consumer-demand sensitivity |  |  |  |  | 
 | Transition | Colony-cohort cage-ban transition scenarios to end-2027 (≥3) |  |  |  |  | 
 | Sensitivities | FX / price-tier / conversion-timing tables + cost & supply-side sensitivities |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora | Aurora flock, mix, financials, volume share, capex, EBITDA bridge |  |  |  |  | 
 | Profit_Pool | Retail value-chain profit-pool allocation (Tier 1-4) |  |  |  |  | 
 | Open_Questions | Contested data points & confirmatory-DD open questions |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Legend

Legend — Cell-Type Visual Convention (Halberd analytical standards §10) |  |  |  | 
≥4 cell categories, applied consistently across every tab. A reviewer can read the model without coaching. |  |  |  | 
 | Category | Treatment | Meaning | Example
 | Input (hardcoded) | Blue font on light-blue fill | A hardcoded assumption / input value. Edit these on the Assumptions tab to refresh the model. | 5.22
 | Calculation (same-tab) | Black font, no fill | A formula referencing cells on the SAME tab. | B6*B7
 | Cross-tab reference | Green font, no fill | A formula referencing a cell on ANOTHER tab (e.g. pulls an input from Assumptions). | Assumptions!B6
 | Headline / KPI output | Bold white font on dark-blue fill | A key output / KPI the reader is meant to land on. | $459M
 | Section header | White bold on dark-blue bar | Section divider. | A. Macro
 | Table header | Bold on light grey | Column header row. | FY24A
 | Source / note | Grey italic | Source attribution, vintage, or narrative note. | ACII Wave 11
 | Flagged input | Blue font on amber fill | Contested across sources OR management-claimed / unverified — needs confirmatory validation. | 1.75%
Source attribution & vintage: every hardcoded input on the Assumptions tab carries a named source and a date/vintage. Inputs lacking a date are flagged 'vintage TBC'. This is non-negotiable for a working model on the Halberd shared drive. |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Assumptions

Assumptions & Inputs  —  NZ Shell-Egg Market Model (Aurora Eggs) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Halberd Capital Partners | Project Albatross | Preliminary outside-in CDD | Pre-LOI. Every input carries source + vintage so the deal team can refresh as diligence arrives. Flagged (amber) inputs are contested across sources or management-claimed/unverified. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
A.  Macro inputs — FX, WACC, inflation  (Halberd central financial assumptions workbook) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Parameter | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E |  | Source | Vintage | Notes
FX rate (USD per 1 NZD) | 0.654 | 0.625 | 0.602 | 0.585 | 0.595 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.625 | 0.625 |  | Halberd central financial assumptions — FX_Rates_Historical (FY22-25) & FX_Rates_Forecast (FY26-31) | Apr 2026 | Apply forecast rate by year for multi-year cash flows; do not use flat spot.
NZ WACC (regional hurdle) | 0.105 | x | Halberd central financial assumptions — WACC_by_Region (New Zealand) | Apr 2026 | Apply ±50bps sub-sector risk premium where judgment supports. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
NZ CPI forecast (annual) | 0.027 | pa | Halberd central financial assumptions — Inflation_Forecast (New Zealand) | Apr 2026 | Use for real-vs-nominal translation in long-dated (>3yr) forecasts. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
B.  Demographics — population (Treasury / Stats NZ baseline) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
NZ population, FY24 base | 5.22 | M | Antipodean Agri Research NZ Eggs briefing 2025-09 (OCR): 'population 5.22M, NZ Treasury 2024 demographics' | Mar 2025 | Top-down sizing anchor. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Population growth, pa | 0.009 | pa | Aurora IM S3 (~0.9% pa); Stats NZ median projection | Feb 2026 | Consistent with Stats NZ median; USDA cross-check 5.3M (2023). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Population cross-check (USDA) | 5.3 | M | USDA FAS NZ Retail Foods Annual 2024 — 'Population (millions): 5.3' | 2024 | Directional cross-check only; analyst/Treasury anchor used for build. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
C.  Per-capita egg consumption (ACII Wave 11 / EPFNZ) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Per-capita consumption, FY24 base | 229 | eggs/p/yr | ACII Wave 11 Egg Addendum (national weighted 229); EPFNZ 229 (analyst briefing) | Mar 2026 | Field Sep-Oct 2025. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Per-capita growth — dietary-mix shift | 0.0045 | pa | ACII Wave 11 main vol + Calthorpe P5 (0.4-0.5% pa) | Mar 2026 | Flexitarian 21.4% (Wave 7 14.3%); eggs net beneficiary. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Per-capita growth — demographic-cuisine | 0.0025 | pa | ACII Wave 11 Egg Addendum sec 3 (0.2-0.3% pa) | Mar 2026 | Asian-NZ 268 eggs (+17%); rising 17%->22-24% by 2038. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Per-capita growth — total (derived) | =B17+B18 | pa | Derived (dietary-mix + demographic-cuisine) | — | ≈ +0.6-0.8% pa survey read. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Per-capita growth — IM management claim | 0.0175 | pa | Aurora IM S3 (1.5-2.0% pa protein-substitution) | Feb 2026 | Contested: ~2-3x the ACII survey read (+0.6-0.8%). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
D.  National layer flock & production physics |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
National flock — official (MPI/NAWAC) | 3.45 | M hens | EPFNZ interview; Antipodean briefing (Dec 2022 NAWAC layer-hen survey, 3.4-3.5M) | Dec 2022 | Stale public stat; not refreshed since 2022 census. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
National flock — bottom-up (producer) | 3.75 | M hens | Calthorpe P1/P3 (3.7-3.8M); Hartley Pearce competitor overview (~3.75M) | Mar 2026 | Higher than official; reflects Phase-2 additions not yet in public stats. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Lay rate (eggs / layer / yr) | 300 | eggs | Calthorpe P3; EPFNZ (295-300); Calder (~300 laying / ~280 calendar) | Mar 2026 | Colony upper (295-310), FR lower (285-295), barn mid. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Flock utilisation | 0.9 | % | Calthorpe P3 (90% utilisation, cage-free & colony) | Mar 2026 | Applied to lay rate for saleable dozens. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
E.  Production-system mix (% of flock) — colony / barn / free-range |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Parameter | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E |  | Source | Vintage | Notes
Colony share (base-case path) | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.4 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.02 |  | NAWAC/EPFNZ Dec 2022 (33%); Calthorpe P1 / Antipodean current 40%; forward = managed conversion (colony->barn/FR by end-2027) | Dec 2022 / Mar 2026 | Base case (Managed Conversion). FY25 40% contested: 'colony compressed' yet 40% — see Open Questions.
Barn share (base-case path) | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.23 | 0.2 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0.44 |  | NAWAC/EPFNZ Dec 2022 (33%); Calthorpe current 20%; forward = barn absorbs ~2/3 of colony conversion | Dec 2022 / Mar 2026 | Contested vs 'barn came up some' narrative (current 20%).
Free-range share (base-case path) | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.4 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.54 |  | NAWAC/EPFNZ Dec 2022 (34%); Calthorpe current 40%; forward = FR absorbs ~1/3 of colony conversion | Dec 2022 / Mar 2026 | Free-range now largest segment; premium/pasture is sub-segment.
F.  Channel mix (% of total volume, all-channel) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail grocery | 0.7 | % | Calthorpe P1 (70-75%); EPFNZ (70-75%) | Mar 2026 | Foodstuffs + Woolworths NZ duopoly ~70-80% of grocery. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Foodservice | 0.14 | % | Calthorpe P1/P3 (12-15%) | Mar 2026 | Cafes/hotels/QSR; Bidfood/Gilmours/Service Foods distribute. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Industrial / processor | 0.09 | % | Calthorpe P3 (8-10%); analytical standards (ind gate 30-45% below retail wholesale) | Mar 2026 | Bakeries, mayo, ready-meals; bulk/liquid. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Institutional / own-use | 0.05 | % | Calthorpe P3 (4-6%); never touches a retail price point | Mar 2026 | Schools, prisons, hospitals, defence, farm own-use. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Direct / DTC | 0.02 | % | Calthorpe P1 (2-3%); analytical standards (40-60% above retail shelf) | Mar 2026 | Farmgate, markets, subscriptions; premium-priced. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Channel mix sum (check =100%) | =B35+B36+B37+B38+B39 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
G.  Channel & tier pricing (NZ$ per dozen) — transaction / gate evidence |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail shelf — free-range | 8.5 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P4 (FR retails NZ$8.50); scan data Q1 2026 (Pak'nSave/NW/Countdown FR 8.79-13.79) | Mar 2026 / Q1 2026 | Shelf (consumer-facing). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail shelf — barn | 7 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P4 (barn ~NZ$7.00); scan data (7.59-8.19) | Mar 2026 / Q1 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail shelf — colony | 5.6 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P4 (colony ~NZ$5.60); scan data (6.69-6.99) | Mar 2026 / Q1 2026 | Countdown phasing colony out end-Q2 2026. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail shelf — pasture/premium | 13.5 | NZ$/doz | Scan data Q1 2026 (pasture-raised 13.49-14.99); Calthorpe P4 | Q1 2026 | Distinct premium tier, separate economics. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail wholesale gate — free-range | 5.4 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P4 (FR gate NZ$5.20-5.60, mid 5.40) — transaction price | Mar 2026 | Vivian Hypothesis 1: transaction-price evidence. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail wholesale gate — barn | 4.5 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P4 (barn gate NZ$4.40-4.60) | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail wholesale gate — colony | 3.4 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P4 (colony gate NZ$3.30-3.50) | Mar 2026 | Colony = thinnest $/dozen EBITDA tier. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail wholesale gate — premium | 8 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P4 implied; scan-data premium shelf ÷ markup | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Foodservice gate (barn-equiv) | 4 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P4 (barn into foodservice NZ$3.80-4.20); ~10-15% below retail wholesale | Mar 2026 | Analytical standards: FS gate 10-15% below retail wholesale. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Industrial / processor gate | 2.8 | NZ$/doz | Analytical standards (industrial 30-45% below retail wholesale); Calthorpe P4 | Mar 2026 | Bulk/liquid egg; lowest gate. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Direct / DTC gate | 13 | NZ$/doz | Analytical standards (DTC 40-60% above retail shelf) | Mar 2026 | Premium direct. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Foodservice distributor margin | 0.15 | % | Calthorpe P4 (wholesaler +12-18% on gate) | Mar 2026 | Bidfood/Gilmours/Service Foods. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retailer gross-margin anchor | 0.3 | % | Analytical standards (retailer GM 25-35%; markup 1.33-1.54) | Q2 2024 | Calthorpe P4 gross margin ~36-39% (slightly above anchor) — see Profit Pool. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
H.  Free-range premium over barn (wholesale gate, %) — contested |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Parameter | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E |  | Source | Vintage | Notes
FR premium over barn (gate) | 0.3 | 0.25 | 0.2 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.1 |  | EPFNZ (historical ~30%, compressing); Calthorpe P5 (18->14->12 across FY26-28) | Mar 2026 | Contested vs IM claim of 30%+ sustained. Vivian Hypothesis 1.
FR premium — IM management claim | 0.3 | % | Aurora IM S4 ('30%+ over past decade, expected to remain at/above') | Feb 2026 | Contested: survey+expert show compression to ~12% by FY28. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
I.  Consumer-demand sensitivity (ACII Wave 11 / Calthorpe P5) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Plant-based egg share (current) | 0.005 | % | ACII Wave 11 Egg Addendum sec 1 (<1% nationally) | Mar 2026 | Specialty/free-from channel only. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Plant-based displacement (FY28-30) | 0.02 | % | ACII/Calthorpe P5 (1.5-2.5% of national shell-egg volume) | Mar 2026 | Contingent on mainstream retailer ranging chilled PB egg. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
FR trade-down under budget pressure | 0.225 | % | ACII Egg Addendum sec 2 + Calthorpe P5 (20-25% of FR buyers) | Mar 2026 | Commodity FR exposed; specialty (pasture/omega-3) 4-9%. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Specialty premium trade-down | 0.065 | % | ACII Egg Addendum sec 4 (4-9% switch) | Mar 2026 | Income-skewed; durable. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
J.  NZ producer cost structure (% of net sales; >250k birds, FY23-24) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Feed (% of cash cost) | 0.625 | % | Pacific Agri Advisory NZ Shell-Egg Sector Briefing FY24 sec 3 (60-65% of cash cost) | Oct 2024 | Largest line; vertical-integration target. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Labour (% net sales) | 0.1 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (8-12%) | Oct 2024 | Automation lever; OEE 65-70% mid-pack vs 80%+ top. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Packaging (% net sales) | 0.05 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (4-6%) | Oct 2024 | Procurement lever; Huhtamaki Otahuhu concentrated. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Distribution / freight (% net sales) | 0.07 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (6-8%) | Oct 2024 | Route consolidation, depot footprint. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Depreciation (% net sales) | 0.07 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (6-8%) | Oct 2024 | Capex-amortisation; rises post-Phase-2 build. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Sales / marketing (% net sales) | 0.02 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (1-3%) | Oct 2024 | Low-marketing category. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Other overhead / G&A (% net sales) | 0.09 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (8-10%) | Oct 2024 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA margin — benchmark low | 0.08 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (8-15%, most 10-12%) | Oct 2024 | Aurora adj 14.9% >13% triggers addback scrutiny. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA margin — benchmark high | 0.15 | % | Pacific Agri briefing | Oct 2024 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA margin — cluster | 0.11 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (most 10-12%) | Oct 2024 | Aurora reported 12.8% sits here; adj 14.9% above. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
K.  Input-cost & supply-side sensitivities (Calthorpe P7) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Feed (% of variable cost / doz) | 0.6 | % | Calthorpe P7 (55-65% of variable cost per dozen) | Mar 2026 | Aurora NZ$1.85-2.10/doz FY24. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora feed cost / doz (low) | 1.85 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P7 | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora feed cost / doz (high) | 2.1 | NZ$/doz | Calthorpe P7 | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Feed pass-through lag | 0.5 | months/12 | Calthorpe P7 (4-6 month lag via retailer contract windows) | Mar 2026 | 10% grain spike -> 80-110 bps gross-margin hit 1-2 qtrs. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Grain spike margin impact (10% spike) | 0.0095 | bps/100 | Calthorpe P7 (80-110 bps) | Mar 2026 | Per quarter or two before pass-through. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Electricity (% variable cost) | 0.09 | % | Calthorpe P7 (8-12% barn/colony; 5-8% FR); Aurora ~8-10% | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Electricity inflation (cum CY24-26) | 0.19 | % | Calthorpe P7 (18-20% cumulative) | Mar 2026 | 150-220 bps margin headwind on colony/barn. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Electricity margin impact | 0.0185 | bps/100 | Calthorpe P7 (150-220 bps) | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Electricity step-up (FY28, on line) | 0.2 | % | Calthorpe P7 (Aurora tariff expires late 2027; +18-22% re-tariff FY28) | Mar 2026 | 2027-28 cost step-up risk; carry FY28+. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
NZ feed wheat (low) | 430 | NZ$/t | Calthorpe P7 (NZ$430-510/t CY24-25; spike 540+ in 2023) | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
NZ feed wheat (high) | 510 | NZ$/t | Calthorpe P7 | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
L.  Colony-to-barn conversion / transition timing (Calthorpe P2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Capex per bird (low) | 45 | NZ$/bird | Calthorpe P2; Hartley Pearce (NZ$45-65 all-in) | Mar 2026 | Basic barn fit-out. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Capex per bird (high) | 65 | NZ$/bird | Calthorpe P2 (modern automated barn NZ$58-65) | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Capex per bird — Aurora (mid) | 55 | NZ$/bird | Calthorpe P2 (Aurora mid NZ$52-58, modern colony sheds) | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
DOC lead time (low) | 6 | months | Calthorpe P2 (6-9 months order-to-delivery) | Mar 2026 | No buffer; could lengthen. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
DOC lead time (high) | 9 | months | Calthorpe P2 | Mar 2026 | 16 wks rearing; 2-qtr delay risk (P7). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Physical build (low) | 12 | months | Calthorpe P2 (12-18 months once consents granted) | Mar 2026 | Aurora ~14-16 months (keeping footprints). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Physical build (high) | 18 | months | Calthorpe P2 | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Resource consent (no notification) | 5 | months | Calthorpe P2 (4-6 months) | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Resource consent (notified) | 10.5 | months | Calthorpe P2 (9-12 months if public notification) | Mar 2026 | Worst case start-to-bird-in 24-30 months. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Runway to end-2027 deadline | 19 | months | Calthorpe P2 (≈19 months from interview; consents needed by Q4 2025) | Mar 2026 | Vivian Hypothesis 2; mathematically tight. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
M.  Aurora Eggs — flock, mix, financials (management IM, unverified) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora flock | 610000 | hens | Aurora website; Hartley Pearce competitor overview (~610k birds) | Feb 2026 | Two sites: Waikato (NI) + Canterbury (SI). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora mix — colony | 0.4 | % | Calthorpe P1 (Mark: 40-30-30); IM S4 (FR 30%) | Mar 2026 | Colony = biggest deal risk. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora mix — barn | 0.3 | % | Calthorpe P1 | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora mix — free-range | 0.3 | % | Calthorpe P1; IM S4 (FR 30%) | Mar 2026 | ~50%+ of FR pack is commodity FR (trade-down exposed). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora channel — retail | 0.7 | % | Calthorpe P4 (~70 retail / 25 foodservice / 5 industrial) | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora channel — foodservice | 0.25 | % | Calthorpe P4 | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora channel — industrial | 0.05 | % | Calthorpe P4 | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Parameter | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E |  | Source | Vintage | Notes
Aurora revenue (NZ$M) | 76.5 | 80.1 | 84.6 | 90.5 | 96.8 | 103.5 | 110.7 | 118.4 | 126.7 |  | Aurora IM S2 (FY22-24A); IM S3 forecast (FY25-30E, +7% pa) | Feb 2026 | Management, unverified. Revenue/dozen FY24 = NZ$6.46 (above gate blend — open Q).
Aurora EBITDA reported (NZ$M) | 8.9 | 9.7 | 10.8 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Aurora IM S2 (reported) | Feb 2026 | Adj FY24 = NZ$12.6M (14.9%) — addbacks unverified.
Aurora volume (M dozen) | 11.8 | 12.4 | 13.1 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Aurora IM S2 | Feb 2026 | IM claims 5-7% pa growth FY26-30.
Aurora EBITDA margin FY24 (reported) | 0.128 | % | Aurora IM S2 (12.8%) | Feb 2026 | Adj 14.9% >13% benchmark addback threshold. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora EBITDA margin FY24 (adj) | 0.149 | % | Aurora IM S2 (adj 14.9%) | Feb 2026 | Adjustment schedule in data room (not yet available). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora volume share (bottom-up) | 0.18 | % | Calthorpe P3 (18% all-channel); Hartley Pearce (est 18%) | Mar 2026 | Retail-channel share ~22-23% (more retail-concentrated). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora retail-channel share | 0.225 | % | Calthorpe P3 (~22-23%) | Mar 2026 | Looks bigger via retail lens than all-channel. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora IM volume growth claim | 0.06 | pa | Aurora IM S3 (5-7% pa FY26-30) | Feb 2026 | Pop 0.9% + pcc 1.5-2.0% + share 2-3pp. Contested. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora IM EV (low) | 130 | NZ$M | Aurora IM S7 (NZ$130-170M; 12-14x FY24 adj EBITDA) | Feb 2026 | Sell-side asking; apply comp haircuts (Aurora tab). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora IM EV (high) | 170 | NZ$M | Aurora IM S7 | Feb 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
N.  NZ producer cohort (FY24) — Hartley Pearce / Calthorpe P6 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Producer | Rev NZ$M | Vol share | EBITDA mgn | Ownership / notes |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Mainland Poultry | 240 | 0.27 | 0.15 | PEP (since Jan 2025); full 7-stage stack; 1.2M birds (Navis 2017) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Heyden Farms | 108 | 0.13 | 0.12 | Family (Heyden); 55/45 brand/PL |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Better Eggs | 78 | 0.09 | 0.11 | Family (Anderson); 60/40; specialty side |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Zeagold Foods | 62 | 0.07 | 0.14 | Mainland/PEP eggs division; industrial egg-products; 13-15% |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Henergy Cage Free | 48 | 0.06 | 0.1 | Family (Wilson); pure-play FR; 75%+ branded |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Long-tail / specialty | 305 | 0.2 | 0.1 | >30 producers; facing Phase-2 capex without balance sheet |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Top-5 share (excl Aurora) / Aurora (net-additive) | 62% / 18% |  |  | Top-5 ~62%; long-tail ~20%; Aurora ~18% (additive to public roster). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
O.  Retail value-chain profit pool (% of retail value) — Pacific Agri briefing sec 4 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Tier 1 — primary producer | 0.35 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (30-40%) | Oct 2024 | Depending on channel mix. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Tier 2 — grader/packer/processor | 0.125 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (10-15%) | Oct 2024 | Integrated producers capture in-house. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Tier 3 — distributor/wholesaler | 0.1 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (8-12%) | Oct 2024 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Tier 4 — retailer/channel | 0.425 | % | Pacific Agri briefing (35-50%, largest pool) | Oct 2024 | Retailer EBITDA/doz ~2.5x producer (Calthorpe P4). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Q.  Sizing & forecast calibration inputs (model-build anchors) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Top-down retail market value, FY24 (anchor) | 459 | NZ$M | Antipodean Agri NZ Eggs briefing 2025-09: 'NZ retail shell-egg market ~NZ$459M FY24' | Mar 2025 | Published top-down anchor (pop 5.22M x pcc 229 x retail shelf x uplift). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Bottom-up all-channel value, FY24 (anchor) | 540 | NZ$M | Calthorpe P3: 3.75M flock x 300 eggs x 90% util x weighted channel blend -> NZ$535-545M | Mar 2026 | All-channel production sizing; gap to top-down = non-retail scope. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail price growth (nominal, pa) | 0.015 | pa | Model calibration; net of FR premium compression (modeled separately via fr_prem) | — | Modest nominal; CPI 2.7% is the cost-side anchor. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
National flock growth (pa) | 0.015 | pa | Model assumption; flock expands to track demand (~pop+pcc 1.6%); Phase-2 conversion adds capacity (Calthorpe: 3.7-3.8M rising) | — | 3.75M FY24 -> ~4.1M FY30 (tracks demand). Base gap vs consumption (pcc) remains — see reconciliation. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Adult share of population (memo) | 0.8 | % | ACII Wave 11 per-capita is per ADULT (n=4,287 18+); NZ 18+ ~79-80% | Mar 2026 | Analyst top-down used total-pop x per-capita (slight over-statement); flagged. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Industrial processor markup (first-hand-off) | 0.15 | % | Model assumption; industrial first-hand-off = ind_gate x (1+markup) | — | Processor margin layer (bakeries/mayo/ready-meals). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
P.  Precedent transactions & cross-trade comps (Hartley Pearce / Cal-Maine 10-K) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Navis -> Mainland (2017) | 6.5 | x EBITDA | Hartley Pearce competitor overview; Navis 2017 press release | Mar 2026 | Most useful NZ-scale precedent (Vivian). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
PEP -> Mainland (2025) | 7.25 | x EBITDA | Hartley Pearce (~7.0-7.5x; NZ$340-380M) | Mar 2026 | Mainland full-stack; Aurora lacks stack -> discount. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
PEP -> Mainland EV | 360 | NZ$M | Hartley Pearce (NZ$340-380M) | Mar 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Better Eggs tuck-in (2023) | 8 | NZ$M | Hartley Pearce (NZ$7-9M, ~50k birds) | Mar 2026 | Long-tail consolidation precedent. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Cal-Maine mid-cycle | 10 | x EBITDA | Hartley Pearce (9-11x); Cal-Maine 10-K | Mar 2026 | US pure-play; ~50x Aurora scale -> heavy haircut. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Inghams (broiler adjacency) | 8.5 | x EBITDA | Hartley Pearce (8-9x) | Mar 2026 | Broiler not layer; product-mix haircut. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Cal-Maine layers (May-25) | 48.3 | M hens | Cal-Maine FY25 10-K | May 2025 | ~13x NZ flock; ~79x Aurora flock. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
R.  Scan-data retail cross-check (RetailIQ NZ Q1 2026) — contested volume base |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan retail volume, Q1 2026 | 25 | M dozen | RetailIQ NZ scan data Q1 2026 — Volume tab (Foodstuffs 13.55 + Countdown 11.42 + other 0.03 = 25.0M dozen) | Q1 2026 | Reconciled to retailer category totals ±2% (scan Notes). Q1 is seasonally LOW. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan retail tier mix — colony | 0.083 | % | RetailIQ scan Volume (colony 8.3% of retail) | Q1 2026 | Combines Foodstuffs + Countdown. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan retail tier mix — barn | 0.273 | % | RetailIQ scan Volume (barn 27.3%) | Q1 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan retail tier mix — FR commodity | 0.552 | % | RetailIQ scan Volume (FR-commodity 55.2%) | Q1 2026 | Largest tier-cell. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan retail tier mix — premium | 0.091 | % | RetailIQ scan Volume (pasture-raised 9.1%) | Q1 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan shelf — colony (1doz) | 6.79 | NZ$/doz | RetailIQ scan Pricing (Pak'nSave 6.69 / NW 6.99 / Countdown 6.89) | Q1 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan shelf — barn (1doz) | 7.93 | NZ$/doz | RetailIQ scan Pricing (7.59 / 8.19 / 7.99) | Q1 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan shelf — FR commodity (1doz) | 9.19 | NZ$/doz | RetailIQ scan Pricing (8.79 / 9.59 / 9.39) | Q1 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan shelf — premium (1doz) | 13.99 | NZ$/doz | RetailIQ scan Pricing (Countdown 13.99 / NW 14.99) | Q1 2026 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Stage discipline: preliminary outside-in (pre-LOI). No invest/pass verdict — IC owns the verdict. Flagged (amber) inputs are contested across sources or management-claimed and need confirmatory validation. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Market_Sizing

Market Sizing — Top-Down vs Bottom-Up + Reconciliation |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Top-down = retail channel (consumption-based, analyst anchor NZ$459M FY24). Bottom-up = all-channel production (flock x lay x util; Calthorpe ~NZ$540M). Gap surfaced & explained (non-retail scope + base difference). Scan-data cross-check flagged. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
1.  TOP-DOWN — retail channel (consumption-based; Antipodean Agri anchor NZ$459M FY24) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Driver / metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | Notes
Population (M) | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^-2 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^-1 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^0 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^1 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^2 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^3 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^4 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^5 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^6 | 
Per-capita (eggs/person) | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^-2 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^-1 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^0 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^1 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^2 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^3 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^4 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^5 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^6 | 
  Total consumption (M eggs) | =B6*B7 | =C6*C7 | =D6*D7 | =E6*E7 | =F6*F7 | =G6*G7 | =H6*H7 | =I6*I7 | =J6*J7 | 
  Total consumption (M dozen) | =B8/12 | =C8/12 | =D8/12 | =E8/12 | =F8/12 | =G8/12 | =H8/12 | =I8/12 | =J8/12 | 
Retail share | =Assumptions!$B$35 | =Assumptions!$B$35 | =Assumptions!$B$35 | =Assumptions!$B$35 | =Assumptions!$B$35 | =Assumptions!$B$35 | =Assumptions!$B$35 | =Assumptions!$B$35 | =Assumptions!$B$35 | 
  Retail consumption (M dozen) | =B9*B10 | =C9*C10 | =D9*D10 | =E9*E10 | =F9*F10 | =G9*G10 | =H9*H10 | =I9*I10 | =J9*J10 | 
TOP-DOWN RETAIL VALUE (NZ$M) | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^-2*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^-2*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^-2 | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^-1*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^-1*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^-1 | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^0*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^0*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^0 | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^1*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^1*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^1 | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^2*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^2*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^2 | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^3*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^3*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^3 | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^4*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^4*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^4 | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^5*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^5*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^5 | =Assumptions!$B$142*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^6*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^6*(1+Assumptions!$B$144)^6 | 
  Implied blended retail shelf (NZ$/doz) | =B12/B11 | =C12/C11 | =D12/D11 | =E12/E11 | =F12/F11 | =G12/G11 | =H12/H11 | =I12/I11 | =J12/J11 | 
TOP-DOWN RETAIL VALUE (US$M) | =B12*Assumptions!$B$6 | =C12*Assumptions!$C$6 | =D12*Assumptions!$D$6 | =E12*Assumptions!$E$6 | =F12*Assumptions!$F$6 | =G12*Assumptions!$G$6 | =H12*Assumptions!$H$6 | =I12*Assumptions!$I$6 | =J12*Assumptions!$J$6 | 
Anchor NZ$459M FY24 (Antipodean Agri 2025-09: pop 5.22M x pcc 229 x retail shelf x ~30% uplift). Grown by population + per-capita + modest nominal price growth. Per-capita is per-ADULT (ACII); analyst applied to total pop (slight over-statement — flagged on Assumptions). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
2.  BOTTOM-UP — all-channel production (flock x lay x util; channel x system MECE) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Driver / metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | Notes
National flock (M hens) | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^-2 | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^-1 | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^0 | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^1 | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^2 | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^3 | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^4 | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^5 | =Assumptions!$B$24*(1+Assumptions!$B$145)^6 | 
  Production (M eggs) | =B19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | =C19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | =D19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | =E19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | =F19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | =G19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | =H19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | =I19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | =J19*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26 | 
  Production (M dozen) | =B20/12 | =C20/12 | =D20/12 | =E20/12 | =F20/12 | =G20/12 | =H20/12 | =I20/12 | =J20/12 | 
Channel volume (M dozen) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Retail grocery dozen | =B21*Assumptions!$B$35 | =C21*Assumptions!$B$35 | =D21*Assumptions!$B$35 | =E21*Assumptions!$B$35 | =F21*Assumptions!$B$35 | =G21*Assumptions!$B$35 | =H21*Assumptions!$B$35 | =I21*Assumptions!$B$35 | =J21*Assumptions!$B$35 | 
  Foodservice dozen | =B21*Assumptions!$B$36 | =C21*Assumptions!$B$36 | =D21*Assumptions!$B$36 | =E21*Assumptions!$B$36 | =F21*Assumptions!$B$36 | =G21*Assumptions!$B$36 | =H21*Assumptions!$B$36 | =I21*Assumptions!$B$36 | =J21*Assumptions!$B$36 | 
  Industrial/processor dozen | =B21*Assumptions!$B$37 | =C21*Assumptions!$B$37 | =D21*Assumptions!$B$37 | =E21*Assumptions!$B$37 | =F21*Assumptions!$B$37 | =G21*Assumptions!$B$37 | =H21*Assumptions!$B$37 | =I21*Assumptions!$B$37 | =J21*Assumptions!$B$37 | 
  Institutional/own-use dozen | =B21*Assumptions!$B$38 | =C21*Assumptions!$B$38 | =D21*Assumptions!$B$38 | =E21*Assumptions!$B$38 | =F21*Assumptions!$B$38 | =G21*Assumptions!$B$38 | =H21*Assumptions!$B$38 | =I21*Assumptions!$B$38 | =J21*Assumptions!$B$38 | 
  Direct/DTC dozen | =B21*Assumptions!$B$39 | =C21*Assumptions!$B$39 | =D21*Assumptions!$B$39 | =E21*Assumptions!$B$39 | =F21*Assumptions!$B$39 | =G21*Assumptions!$B$39 | =H21*Assumptions!$B$39 | =I21*Assumptions!$B$39 | =J21*Assumptions!$B$39 | 
Retail dozen by production system |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Colony (retail) | =B23*Assumptions!$B$30 | =C23*Assumptions!$C$30 | =D23*Assumptions!$D$30 | =E23*Assumptions!$E$30 | =F23*Assumptions!$F$30 | =G23*Assumptions!$G$30 | =H23*Assumptions!$H$30 | =I23*Assumptions!$I$30 | =J23*Assumptions!$J$30 | 
  Barn (retail) | =B23*Assumptions!$B$31 | =C23*Assumptions!$C$31 | =D23*Assumptions!$D$31 | =E23*Assumptions!$E$31 | =F23*Assumptions!$F$31 | =G23*Assumptions!$G$31 | =H23*Assumptions!$H$31 | =I23*Assumptions!$I$31 | =J23*Assumptions!$J$31 | 
  Free-range (retail) | =B23*Assumptions!$B$32 | =C23*Assumptions!$C$32 | =D23*Assumptions!$D$32 | =E23*Assumptions!$E$32 | =F23*Assumptions!$F$32 | =G23*Assumptions!$G$32 | =H23*Assumptions!$H$32 | =I23*Assumptions!$I$32 | =J23*Assumptions!$J$32 | 
Channel first-hand-off price (NZ$/doz) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Retail blended shelf | =Assumptions!$B$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$B$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$B$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | =Assumptions!$C$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$C$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$C$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | =Assumptions!$D$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$D$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$D$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | =Assumptions!$E$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$E$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$E$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | =Assumptions!$F$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$F$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$F$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | =Assumptions!$G$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$G$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$G$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | =Assumptions!$H$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$H$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$H$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | =Assumptions!$I$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$I$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$I$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | =Assumptions!$J$30*Assumptions!$B$45+Assumptions!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$44+Assumptions!$J$32*Assumptions!$B$43 | 
  Foodservice (gate x 1+dist) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | =Assumptions!$B$51*(1+Assumptions!$B$54) | 
  Industrial (gate x 1+proc) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | =Assumptions!$B$52*(1+Assumptions!$B$147) | 
  Institutional (gate) | =Assumptions!$B$52 | =Assumptions!$B$52 | =Assumptions!$B$52 | =Assumptions!$B$52 | =Assumptions!$B$52 | =Assumptions!$B$52 | =Assumptions!$B$52 | =Assumptions!$B$52 | =Assumptions!$B$52 | 
  Direct/DTC (gate) | =Assumptions!$B$53 | =Assumptions!$B$53 | =Assumptions!$B$53 | =Assumptions!$B$53 | =Assumptions!$B$53 | =Assumptions!$B$53 | =Assumptions!$B$53 | =Assumptions!$B$53 | =Assumptions!$B$53 | 
Market value at first-hand-off (NZ$M) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Retail value | =B23*B33 | =C23*C33 | =D23*D33 | =E23*E33 | =F23*F33 | =G23*G33 | =H23*H33 | =I23*I33 | =J23*J33 | 
  Foodservice value | =B24*B34 | =C24*C34 | =D24*D34 | =E24*E34 | =F24*F34 | =G24*G34 | =H24*H34 | =I24*I34 | =J24*J34 | 
  Industrial value | =B25*B35 | =C25*C35 | =D25*D35 | =E25*E35 | =F25*F35 | =G25*G35 | =H25*H35 | =I25*I35 | =J25*J35 | 
  Institutional value | =B26*B36 | =C26*C36 | =D26*D36 | =E26*E36 | =F26*F36 | =G26*G36 | =H26*H36 | =I26*I36 | =J26*J36 | 
  Direct value | =B27*B37 | =C27*C37 | =D27*D37 | =E27*E37 | =F27*F37 | =G27*G37 | =H27*H37 | =I27*I37 | =J27*J37 | 
BOTTOM-UP MARKET VALUE (NZ$M) | =B39+B40+B41+B42+B43 | =C39+C40+C41+C42+C43 | =D39+D40+D41+D42+D43 | =E39+E40+E41+E42+E43 | =F39+F40+F41+F42+F43 | =G39+G40+G41+G42+G43 | =H39+H40+H41+H42+H43 | =I39+I40+I41+I42+I43 | =J39+J40+J41+J42+J43 | 
BOTTOM-UP MARKET VALUE (US$M) | =B44*Assumptions!$B$6 | =C44*Assumptions!$C$6 | =D44*Assumptions!$D$6 | =E44*Assumptions!$E$6 | =F44*Assumptions!$F$6 | =G44*Assumptions!$G$6 | =H44*Assumptions!$H$6 | =I44*Assumptions!$I$6 | =J44*Assumptions!$J$6 | 
Producer gate revenue (NZ$M) — what producers book |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Retail blended gate (FR = barn x (1+prem)) | =Assumptions!$B$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$B$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$B$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$B$59) | =Assumptions!$C$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$C$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$C$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$C$59) | =Assumptions!$D$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$D$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$D$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$D$59) | =Assumptions!$E$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$E$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$E$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$E$59) | =Assumptions!$F$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$F$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$F$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$F$59) | =Assumptions!$G$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$G$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$G$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$G$59) | =Assumptions!$H$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$H$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$H$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$H$59) | =Assumptions!$I$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$I$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$I$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$I$59) | =Assumptions!$J$30*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$J$32*Assumptions!$B$48*(1+Assumptions!$J$59) | 
Producer gate revenue (NZ$M) | =B23*B47+B24*Assumptions!$B$51+B25*Assumptions!$B$52+B26*Assumptions!$B$52+B27*Assumptions!$B$53 | =C23*C47+C24*Assumptions!$B$51+C25*Assumptions!$B$52+C26*Assumptions!$B$52+C27*Assumptions!$B$53 | =D23*D47+D24*Assumptions!$B$51+D25*Assumptions!$B$52+D26*Assumptions!$B$52+D27*Assumptions!$B$53 | =E23*E47+E24*Assumptions!$B$51+E25*Assumptions!$B$52+E26*Assumptions!$B$52+E27*Assumptions!$B$53 | =F23*F47+F24*Assumptions!$B$51+F25*Assumptions!$B$52+F26*Assumptions!$B$52+F27*Assumptions!$B$53 | =G23*G47+G24*Assumptions!$B$51+G25*Assumptions!$B$52+G26*Assumptions!$B$52+G27*Assumptions!$B$53 | =H23*H47+H24*Assumptions!$B$51+H25*Assumptions!$B$52+H26*Assumptions!$B$52+H27*Assumptions!$B$53 | =I23*I47+I24*Assumptions!$B$51+I25*Assumptions!$B$52+I26*Assumptions!$B$52+I27*Assumptions!$B$53 | =J23*J47+J24*Assumptions!$B$51+J25*Assumptions!$B$52+J26*Assumptions!$B$52+J27*Assumptions!$B$53 | 
  Value-chain markup (NZ$M) | =B44-B48 | =C44-C48 | =D44-D48 | =E44-E48 | =F44-F48 | =G44-G48 | =H44-H48 | =I44-I48 | =J44-J48 | 
Producer gate revenue (US$M) | =B48*Assumptions!$B$6 | =C48*Assumptions!$C$6 | =D48*Assumptions!$D$6 | =E48*Assumptions!$E$6 | =F48*Assumptions!$F$6 | =G48*Assumptions!$G$6 | =H48*Assumptions!$H$6 | =I48*Assumptions!$I$6 | =J48*Assumptions!$J$6 | 
FR gate = barn gate x (1+FR premium) models premium compression (price response to barn-supply growth). Value-chain markup = retailer + distributor + processor margins (see Profit_Pool). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
3.  SCAN-DATA RETAIL CROSS-CHECK (RetailIQ NZ Q1 2026) — CONTESTED, FLAGGED |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan retail volume, Q1 2026 (M dozen) | =Assumptions!$B$159 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Foodstuffs 13.55 + Countdown 11.42 + other 0.03 (scan Volume).
Annualised x4 (M dozen; pre seasonal-adj) | =B54*4 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Q1 is seasonally LOW (scan Notes) — true annual likely higher.
Scan blended retail shelf (NZ$/doz) | =Assumptions!$B$160*Assumptions!$B$164+Assumptions!$B$161*Assumptions!$B$165+Assumptions!$B$162*Assumptions!$B$166+Assumptions!$B$163*Assumptions!$B$167 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scan-implied retail value at SHELF (NZ$M/yr) | =B55*B56 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Consumer-facing.
Scan-implied retail value at GATE (NZ$M/yr) | =B55*(Assumptions!$B$160*Assumptions!$B$49+Assumptions!$B$161*Assumptions!$B$48+Assumptions!$B$162*Assumptions!$B$47+Assumptions!$B$163*Assumptions!$B$50) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Producer-side.
vs Top-down retail FY24 (NZ$M) | =D12 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
MATERIAL DISCREPANCY: scan-implied annual retail volume (~100M dozen) EXCEEDS total production (~84M dozen, row 'Production (M dozen)') and the consumption-build retail volume (~70M dozen). Scan data is reconciled to retailer category totals ±2% (scan Notes), so the gap is not a panel artefact. Possible: (a) consumption (pcc 229) & flock (3.75M) bases under-state the market; (b) retail share >70% interview anchor; (c) scan over-covers. Confirmatory DD must re-anchor the volume base. Surfaced, not normalized (analytical standards §2.1). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
4.  Reconciliation — top-down (retail) vs bottom-up (all-channel) + Aurora share |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Driver / metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | Notes
Top-down retail (NZ$M) | =B12 | =C12 | =D12 | =E12 | =F12 | =G12 | =H12 | =I12 | =J12 | 
Bottom-up all-channel (NZ$M) | =B44 | =C44 | =D44 | =E44 | =F44 | =G44 | =H44 | =I44 | =J44 | 
  Gap (bottom-up - top-down) (NZ$M) | =B65-B64 | =C65-C64 | =D65-D64 | =E65-E64 | =F65-F64 | =G65-G64 | =H65-H64 | =I65-I64 | =J65-J64 | 
    of which non-retail FHO (NZ$M) | =B40+B41+B42+B43 | =C40+C41+C42+C43 | =D40+D41+D42+D43 | =E40+E41+E42+E43 | =F40+F41+F42+F43 | =G40+G41+G42+G43 | =H40+H41+H42+H43 | =I40+I41+I42+I43 | =J40+J41+J42+J43 | 
  Aurora volume share | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$B$116/B21,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$C$116/C21,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$D$116/D21,"") |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Aurora revenue share (of gate rev) | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$B$114/B48,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$C$114/C48,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$D$114/D48,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$E$114/E48,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$F$114/F48,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$G$114/G48,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$H$114/H48,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$I$114/I48,"") | =IFERROR(Assumptions!$J$114/J48,"") | 
Reconciliation (Calthorpe P3): bottom-up sizes ALL production; top-down sizes the RETAIL channel only. Gap = non-retail first-hand-off value (foodservice + industrial + institutional + direct) + a base difference (top-down is consumption-based pop x pcc; bottom-up is production-based flock x lay x util; the two dozen bases differ ~15% — adult-vs-total-pop per-capita convention + inventory/spoilage). Aurora revenue share (FY24 ~23%) > volume share (~16-18%) because Aurora is more retail-concentrated (Calthorpe P3). Use bottom-up for VOLUME share; top-down for RETAIL-channel share (analytical standards §2.1). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Forecast

5-Year Forecast — demand drivers, channel x system, consumer-demand sensitivity |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Forecast driven by population + per-capita (Treasury / ACII). MECE by channel x production system. Consumer-demand sensitivity (plant-based displacement + FR trade-down) shown vs base. IM growth claim (5-7% pa) benchmarked vs survey-based market growth. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
1.  Demand-driver bridge — population + per-capita (Treasury / ACII Wave 11) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Driver / metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | Notes
Population (M) | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^-2 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^-1 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^0 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^1 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^2 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^3 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^4 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^5 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^6 | 
    Population growth (pa) | =Assumptions!$B$12 | =Assumptions!$B$12 | =Assumptions!$B$12 | =Assumptions!$B$12 | =Assumptions!$B$12 | =Assumptions!$B$12 | =Assumptions!$B$12 | =Assumptions!$B$12 | =Assumptions!$B$12 | 
Per-capita base (eggs/person) | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^-2 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^-1 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^0 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^1 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^2 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^3 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^4 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^5 | =Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^6 | 
    + dietary-mix shift (pa) | =Assumptions!$B$17 | =Assumptions!$B$17 | =Assumptions!$B$17 | =Assumptions!$B$17 | =Assumptions!$B$17 | =Assumptions!$B$17 | =Assumptions!$B$17 | =Assumptions!$B$17 | =Assumptions!$B$17 | 
    + demographic-cuisine (pa) | =Assumptions!$B$18 | =Assumptions!$B$18 | =Assumptions!$B$18 | =Assumptions!$B$18 | =Assumptions!$B$18 | =Assumptions!$B$18 | =Assumptions!$B$18 | =Assumptions!$B$18 | =Assumptions!$B$18 | 
    = survey per-capita growth (pa) | =Assumptions!$B$19 | =Assumptions!$B$19 | =Assumptions!$B$19 | =Assumptions!$B$19 | =Assumptions!$B$19 | =Assumptions!$B$19 | =Assumptions!$B$19 | =Assumptions!$B$19 | =Assumptions!$B$19 | 
    IM management claim (pa) — CONTESTED | =Assumptions!$B$20 | =Assumptions!$B$20 | =Assumptions!$B$20 | =Assumptions!$B$20 | =Assumptions!$B$20 | =Assumptions!$B$20 | =Assumptions!$B$20 | =Assumptions!$B$20 | =Assumptions!$B$20 | 
  Plant-based displacement (ramp to pb_disp) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2022-2025)/3))) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2023-2025)/3))) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2024-2025)/3))) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2025-2025)/3))) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2026-2025)/3))) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2027-2025)/3))) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2028-2025)/3))) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2029-2025)/3))) | =(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2030-2025)/3))) | 
Effective demand growth (pa, base) | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | =(1+Assumptions!$B$12)*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)-1 | 
Total consumption (M dozen, demand basis) | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^-2*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^-2/12 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^-1*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^-1/12 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^0*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^0/12 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^1*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^1/12 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^2*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^2/12 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^3*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^3/12 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^4*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^4/12 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^5*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^5/12 | =Assumptions!$B$11*(1+Assumptions!$B$12)^6*Assumptions!$B$16*(1+Assumptions!$B$19)^6/12 | 
    displacement-adjusted (M dozen) | =B15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2022-2025)/3)))) | =C15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2023-2025)/3)))) | =D15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2024-2025)/3)))) | =E15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2025-2025)/3)))) | =F15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2026-2025)/3)))) | =G15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2027-2025)/3)))) | =H15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2028-2025)/3)))) | =I15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2029-2025)/3)))) | =J15*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2030-2025)/3)))) | 
Survey per-capita +0.7% pa (dietary-mix +0.45% + demographic-cuisine +0.25%) + population +0.9% pa -> demand ~+1.6% pa. IM claims per-capita +1.5-2.0% pa (~2-3x survey) — contested. Plant-based displacement 1.5-2.5% by FY28-30 (ACII/Calthorpe P5). Demand basis (pop x pcc) > production basis (flock x lay) by ~15% — the volume-base gap surfaced in Market_Sizing (scan data ~100M dozen supports the higher figure). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
REAL vs NOMINAL (standards §12): forecast is NOMINAL NZD — prices escalate with ret_px_growth and tier dynamics (FR premium compression), not a flat CPI lift. NZ CPI 2.7% (Assumptions) is the cost-side anchor; real growth = nominal less CPI. USD via FX_Rates_Forecast by year. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
2.  5-year market forecast — BASE CASE (production basis; refs Market_Sizing; MECE channel x system) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Driver / metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | Notes
Total market volume (M dozen, production) | =Market_Sizing!$B$21 | =Market_Sizing!$C$21 | =Market_Sizing!$D$21 | =Market_Sizing!$E$21 | =Market_Sizing!$F$21 | =Market_Sizing!$G$21 | =Market_Sizing!$H$21 | =Market_Sizing!$I$21 | =Market_Sizing!$J$21 | 
    Colony dozen (retail) | =Market_Sizing!$B$29 | =Market_Sizing!$C$29 | =Market_Sizing!$D$29 | =Market_Sizing!$E$29 | =Market_Sizing!$F$29 | =Market_Sizing!$G$29 | =Market_Sizing!$H$29 | =Market_Sizing!$I$29 | =Market_Sizing!$J$29 | 
    Barn dozen (retail) | =Market_Sizing!$B$30 | =Market_Sizing!$C$30 | =Market_Sizing!$D$30 | =Market_Sizing!$E$30 | =Market_Sizing!$F$30 | =Market_Sizing!$G$30 | =Market_Sizing!$H$30 | =Market_Sizing!$I$30 | =Market_Sizing!$J$30 | 
    Free-range dozen (retail) | =Market_Sizing!$B$31 | =Market_Sizing!$C$31 | =Market_Sizing!$D$31 | =Market_Sizing!$E$31 | =Market_Sizing!$F$31 | =Market_Sizing!$G$31 | =Market_Sizing!$H$31 | =Market_Sizing!$I$31 | =Market_Sizing!$J$31 | 
MARKET VALUE (NZ$M, all-channel) | =Market_Sizing!$B$44 | =Market_Sizing!$C$44 | =Market_Sizing!$D$44 | =Market_Sizing!$E$44 | =Market_Sizing!$F$44 | =Market_Sizing!$G$44 | =Market_Sizing!$H$44 | =Market_Sizing!$I$44 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44 | 
MARKET VALUE (US$M, all-channel) | =Market_Sizing!$B$45 | =Market_Sizing!$C$45 | =Market_Sizing!$D$45 | =Market_Sizing!$E$45 | =Market_Sizing!$F$45 | =Market_Sizing!$G$45 | =Market_Sizing!$H$45 | =Market_Sizing!$I$45 | =Market_Sizing!$J$45 | 
    YoY market value growth (NZ$) |  | =C26/B26-1 | =D26/C26-1 | =E26/D26-1 | =F26/E26-1 | =G26/F26-1 | =H26/G26-1 | =I26/H26-1 | =J26/I26-1 | 
    Retail value (NZ$M) | =Market_Sizing!$B$39 | =Market_Sizing!$C$39 | =Market_Sizing!$D$39 | =Market_Sizing!$E$39 | =Market_Sizing!$F$39 | =Market_Sizing!$G$39 | =Market_Sizing!$H$39 | =Market_Sizing!$I$39 | =Market_Sizing!$J$39 | 
    Foodservice value (NZ$M) | =Market_Sizing!$B$40 | =Market_Sizing!$C$40 | =Market_Sizing!$D$40 | =Market_Sizing!$E$40 | =Market_Sizing!$F$40 | =Market_Sizing!$G$40 | =Market_Sizing!$H$40 | =Market_Sizing!$I$40 | =Market_Sizing!$J$40 | 
    Industrial value (NZ$M) | =Market_Sizing!$B$41 | =Market_Sizing!$C$41 | =Market_Sizing!$D$41 | =Market_Sizing!$E$41 | =Market_Sizing!$F$41 | =Market_Sizing!$G$41 | =Market_Sizing!$H$41 | =Market_Sizing!$I$41 | =Market_Sizing!$J$41 | 
Production basis: flock grows ~1.5% pa to track demand. Colony dozen declines FY25->FY30 (40%->2% of retail) under managed conversion; barn + FR absorb. Market value grows ~1.5% pa volume + mix shift to higher-priced barn/FR, partly offset by FR premium compression. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
3.  Consumer-demand sensitivity — downside vs base (ACII / Calthorpe P5) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Driver / metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | Notes
  Plant-based displacement volume (M dozen) | =Market_Sizing!$B$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2022-2025)/3))) | =Market_Sizing!$C$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2023-2025)/3))) | =Market_Sizing!$D$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2024-2025)/3))) | =Market_Sizing!$E$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2025-2025)/3))) | =Market_Sizing!$F$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2026-2025)/3))) | =Market_Sizing!$G$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2027-2025)/3))) | =Market_Sizing!$H$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2028-2025)/3))) | =Market_Sizing!$I$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2029-2025)/3))) | =Market_Sizing!$J$21*(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2030-2025)/3))) | 
  FR trade-down value loss (NZ$M) | =Market_Sizing!$B$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | =Market_Sizing!$C$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | =Market_Sizing!$D$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | =Market_Sizing!$E$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | =Market_Sizing!$F$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | =Market_Sizing!$G$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | =Market_Sizing!$H$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | =Market_Sizing!$I$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | =Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$65*(Assumptions!$B$43-Assumptions!$B$44) | 
DOWNSIDE MARKET VALUE (NZ$M) | =Market_Sizing!$B$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2022-2025)/3))))-B37 | =Market_Sizing!$C$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2023-2025)/3))))-C37 | =Market_Sizing!$D$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2024-2025)/3))))-D37 | =Market_Sizing!$E$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2025-2025)/3))))-E37 | =Market_Sizing!$F$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2026-2025)/3))))-F37 | =Market_Sizing!$G$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2027-2025)/3))))-G37 | =Market_Sizing!$H$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2028-2025)/3))))-H37 | =Market_Sizing!$I$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2029-2025)/3))))-I37 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44*(1-(Assumptions!$B$64*MAX(0,MIN(1,(2030-2025)/3))))-J37 | 
DOWNSIDE MARKET VALUE (US$M) | =B38*Assumptions!$B$6 | =C38*Assumptions!$C$6 | =D38*Assumptions!$D$6 | =E38*Assumptions!$E$6 | =F38*Assumptions!$F$6 | =G38*Assumptions!$G$6 | =H38*Assumptions!$H$6 | =I38*Assumptions!$I$6 | =J38*Assumptions!$J$6 | 
    % impact vs base (NZ$) | =B38/Market_Sizing!$B$44-1 | =C38/Market_Sizing!$C$44-1 | =D38/Market_Sizing!$D$44-1 | =E38/Market_Sizing!$E$44-1 | =F38/Market_Sizing!$F$44-1 | =G38/Market_Sizing!$G$44-1 | =H38/Market_Sizing!$H$44-1 | =I38/Market_Sizing!$I$44-1 | =J38/Market_Sizing!$J$44-1 | 
Downside = plant-based displacement (ramp to 2% of volume by FY28) + free-range trade-down (22.5% of FR buyers shift to barn under budget pressure; value loss = traded-down FR dozen x (FR shelf - barn shelf)). Specialty premium (pasture/omega-3/organic) excluded — durable, 4-9% switch (ACII). Net downside ~3-4% of market value by FY30. The bigger swing is the IM growth claim (5-7% pa) vs survey base (~1.6% pa) — see bridge. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
4.  Aurora growth claim vs market — the contested bridge (Vivian Hypothesis 3) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Driver / metric | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | Notes
Market volume growth (pa, base) |  | =Market_Sizing!$C$21/Market_Sizing!$B$21-1 | =Market_Sizing!$D$21/Market_Sizing!$C$21-1 | =Market_Sizing!$E$21/Market_Sizing!$D$21-1 | =Market_Sizing!$F$21/Market_Sizing!$E$21-1 | =Market_Sizing!$G$21/Market_Sizing!$F$21-1 | =Market_Sizing!$H$21/Market_Sizing!$G$21-1 | =Market_Sizing!$I$21/Market_Sizing!$H$21-1 | =Market_Sizing!$J$21/Market_Sizing!$I$21-1 | 
Aurora IM volume growth claim (pa) | =Assumptions!$B$121 | =Assumptions!$B$121 | =Assumptions!$B$121 | =Assumptions!$B$121 | =Assumptions!$B$121 | =Assumptions!$B$121 | =Assumptions!$B$121 | =Assumptions!$B$121 | =Assumptions!$B$121 | 
    Implied Aurora share gain required (pp pa) |  | =Assumptions!$B$121-C45 | =Assumptions!$B$121-D45 | =Assumptions!$B$121-E45 | =Assumptions!$B$121-F45 | =Assumptions!$B$121-G45 | =Assumptions!$B$121-H45 | =Assumptions!$B$121-I45 | =Assumptions!$B$121-J45 | 
Aurora IM revenue forecast (NZ$M) | =Assumptions!$B$114 | =Assumptions!$C$114 | =Assumptions!$D$114 | =Assumptions!$E$114 | =Assumptions!$F$114 | =Assumptions!$G$114 | =Assumptions!$H$114 | =Assumptions!$I$114 | =Assumptions!$J$114 | 
  Aurora model-implied rev @ flat share (NZ$M) | =Market_Sizing!$B$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | =Market_Sizing!$C$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | =Market_Sizing!$D$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | =Market_Sizing!$E$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | =Market_Sizing!$F$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | =Market_Sizing!$G$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | =Market_Sizing!$H$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | =Market_Sizing!$I$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | =Market_Sizing!$J$48*Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | 
    Gap: IM claim vs flat-share model (NZ$M) | =B48-B49 | =C48-C49 | =D48-D49 | =E48-E49 | =F48-F49 | =G48-G49 | =H48-H49 | =I48-I49 | =J48-J49 | 
At flat FY24 revenue share (~23%), Aurora grows with the market (~1.5% pa). IM's +7% pa revenue / 5-7% pa volume claim implies Aurora gains ~4-5pp share pa by capturing exiting cage-egg producers (IM S3 '2-3pp incremental share'). That share capture is the swing factor and is UNVERIFIED — confirmatory DD must validate Aurora's win-rate vs the long-tail exit. Aurora's #2 volume share sits with #4/#5 integration depth (no captive feed/breeder) — capacity to capture share is not self-evident (Calthorpe P6). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Transition

Cage-Ban Transition Scenarios — colony cohort to end-2027 (retailer pledge) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Three named scenarios (Managed Conversion / Capacity Gap / Premium Collapse) with driver, consequence, breakeven. Price response modeled (FR premium path) — no flat prices (analytical standards §3.1). Aurora colony conversion feasibility sized. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
1.  Scenario definitions — driver / consequence / breakeven (analytical standards §3.1) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Driver (what differs) |  |  | Consequence (model output) |  |  | Breakeven (trigger) | 
Managed Conversion (base) | Colony cohort converts to barn/FR on time for end-2027 Foodstuffs deadline; consents started Q4 2025; DOC + build on schedule. |  |  | Colony share 40%->~2% by FY30; barn absorbs ~2/3, FR ~1/3. FR premium compresses 18%->10% as barn supply scales. Minimal retail-access loss. |  |  | Consents lodged by Q4 2025 (runway ~19mo; consent 5-10.5mo + build 14-16mo = 19-26.5mo). On-time if consents in train now. | 
Capacity Gap / Slippage | Conversion slips past end-2027: resource-consent delays (notification) + DOC 6-9mo lead + build 14-16mo exceed the ~19mo runway. |  |  | Colony share stays elevated (40%->~22% by FY28 vs ~12% base); colony producers lose Foodstuffs listing -> retail volume at risk; barn/FR supply-gap price spike FY26-27 then normalize. Aurora capex overrun + retail-access risk. |  |  | Consent start slips past Q4 2025 -> mathematically tight/impossible by end-2027 (Calthorpe P2). Breakeven: consents lodged <= Q1 2026. | 
Premium Collapse | Colony exits on time BUT barn over-scales (cheap capex) faster than demand; commodity FR supply swells; cost-of-living trade-down accelerates. |  |  | FR premium compresses hard 18%->~5% by FY30; commodity FR pricing power lost; converters who went FR (expensive) squeezed. Specialty premium (pasture/omega-3) durable. |  |  | Barn supply growth vs demand. Breakeven: FR premium <~8% (vs barn) makes FR conversion capex ($58-65/bird) sub-economic vs barn ($45-50). | 
2.  Colony-cohort transition path — colony share of retail by scenario (price-relevant) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | FY25->FY30 | Source
Managed Conversion (base) | =Assumptions!$E$30 | =Assumptions!$F$30 | =Assumptions!$G$30 | =Assumptions!$H$30 | =Assumptions!$I$30 | =Assumptions!$J$30 | =TEXT(B12,"0%")&"->"&TEXT(G12,"0%") | Assumptions mix_colony (base path)
Capacity Gap / Slippage | 0.4 | 0.38 | 0.3 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.08 | =TEXT(B13,"0%")&"->"&TEXT(G13,"0%") | Model scenario (Calthorpe P2 timing)
Premium Collapse | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.01 | =TEXT(B14,"0%")&"->"&TEXT(G14,"0%") | Model scenario (Calthorpe P5 compression)
3.  Price response — free-range premium over barn (wholesale gate), by scenario (NOT flat) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | FY30 vs base | Source
Managed Conversion (base) | =Assumptions!$E$59 | =Assumptions!$F$59 | =Assumptions!$G$59 | =Assumptions!$H$59 | =Assumptions!$I$59 | =Assumptions!$J$59 |  | Assumptions fr_prem (EPFNZ/Calthorpe P5)
Capacity Gap / Slippage | 0.19 | 0.2 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.1 | =G19-G18 | Model: supply-gap spike FY26-27 then normalize
Premium Collapse | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.05 | =G20-G18 | Model: hard compression (Calthorpe P5 downside)
Price response is modeled per scenario (analytical standards §3.1): Capacity Gap -> barn/FR supply-gap spike FY26-27 (premium up) then normalize; Premium Collapse -> FR premium compresses to ~5% by FY30. IM claims 30%+ sustained (contested). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
4.  Colony retail-access volume at risk by scenario (M dozen, FY27) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Colony retail dozen (FY27) | At-risk share | Volume at risk (M doz) | Revenue at risk (NZ$M) | Note |  |  | 
Managed Conversion (base) | =Market_Sizing!$G$23*D12 | 0.1 | =B25*C25 | =D25*Assumptions!$B$49 | Most colony producers convert on time; small tail at risk. |  |  | 
Capacity Gap / Slippage | =Market_Sizing!$G$23*D13 | 0.4 | =B26*C26 | =D26*Assumptions!$B$49 | Material slippage; ~40% of colony cohort misses Foodstuffs end-2027 deadline -> delisted. |  |  | 
Premium Collapse | =Market_Sizing!$G$23*D14 | 0.05 | =B27*C27 | =D27*Assumptions!$B$49 | Colony exits fast; little access risk but FR margin crush. |  |  | 
Colony producers missing the Foodstuffs end-2027 deadline lose retail listing (Countdown already cage-free). At-risk volume can move to foodservice/industrial at lower gate (partial offset) or exit. Revenue at risk at colony gate (NZ$3.40/doz). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
5.  Aurora colony conversion — feasibility & capex by scenario (Calthorpe P2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Item | Value | Unit | Source / note |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora colony birds (40% of 610k) | =Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107 | hens | Calthorpe P1 (Mark: 40-30-30) |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora conversion capex (Calthorpe) | =Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$96/1000000 | NZ$M | 244k birds x NZ$55/bird = ~NZ$13.4M (P2) |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora conversion capex (IM claim) | =(Assumptions!$B$94+Assumptions!$B$95)/2*0+8 | NZ$M | IM S5: NZ$8-10M (contested; ~35% below Calthorpe) |  |  |  |  | 
Runway to end-2027 deadline | =Assumptions!$B$103 | months | Calthorpe P2 (~19mo from Apr-2026) |  |  |  |  | 
Consents (no notify / notify) | =Assumptions!$B$101&"-"&Assumptions!$B$102 | months | Calthorpe P2 (4-6 / 9-12) |  |  |  |  | 
Physical build (Aurora, keep footprint) | =(Assumptions!$B$99+Assumptions!$B$100)/2 | months | Calthorpe P2 (14-16) |  |  |  |  | 
Best/worst case start-to-bird-in | =(Assumptions!$B$99+Assumptions!$B$101)&"-"&(Assumptions!$B$100+Assumptions!$B$102) | months | Calthorpe P2 (18-30) |  |  |  |  | 
DOC lead time | =Assumptions!$B$97&"-"&Assumptions!$B$98 | months | Calthorpe P2 (6-9, no buffer) |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora IM S5 frames conversion as 'clear path by 2027' with NZ$8-10M capex. Calthorpe P2: capex ~NZ$13.4M, and consents needed by Q4 2025 to be comfortable — 'if the McKennas haven't started consents yet, they're behind.' Confirmatory DD: status of resource consents (lodged? notified?) and DOC supply contracts. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
6.  Output impact by scenario vs base (FY27 / FY30) — market value & Aurora EBITDA-at-risk |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Mkt value FY27 (NZ$M) | vs base | Mkt value FY30 (NZ$M) | vs base | Aurora EBITDA-at-risk (NZ$M pa) | Driver of impact |  | 
Managed Conversion (base) | =Market_Sizing!$G$44 | 0 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44 | 0 | 0.0-0.5 | On-time; base premium compression only. |  | 
Capacity Gap / Slippage | =Market_Sizing!$G$44-E26*0.5 | =B45-Market_Sizing!$G$44 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44-E26*0.2 | =D45-Market_Sizing!$J$44 | 1.5-2.5 | Aurora colony retail-access loss (~1.9M doz) + capex overrun; market barn/FR spike then colony volume exits. |  | 
Premium Collapse | =Market_Sizing!$G$44+Market_Sizing!$G$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(D20-Assumptions!$G$59) | =B46-Market_Sizing!$G$44 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44+Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(G20-Assumptions!$J$59) | =D46-Market_Sizing!$J$44 | 0.5-1.5 | Aurora 30% FR mix revenue compresses (premium 20%->5%); commodity FR trade-down; specialty durable. |  | 
Aurora EBITDA-at-risk ranges are directional (anchored on Calthorpe P4/P5 unit economics): Capacity Gap ~NZ$1.5-2.5M pa (colony retail-access loss ~1.9M dox x margin + capex overrun); Premium Collapse ~NZ$0.5-1.5M pa (FR mix 30% x premium 20%->5% compression + trade-down). Breakeven scenario = Managed Conversion (on-time). See Sensitivities tab for conversion-timing sensitivity table; Aurora tab for the full EBITDA bridge. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Sensitivities

Sensitivities — FX / price-tier / conversion-timing + cost-side & supply-side |  |  |  |  |  | 
Mandatory sensitivity tables (analytical standards §3.2): FX, price-tier trajectory, conversion timing — 3 scenarios + breakeven each. Plus input-cost (feed, electricity) and supply-side (DOC, HPAI). Output metric + breakeven identified per table. |  |  |  |  |  | 
1.  FX sensitivity — NZD/USD (output: market value FY30 US$M; breakeven = house view) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | USD/NZD | Mkt value FY30 (US$M) | vs base (US$M) | Breakeven | Aurora EV FY30 (US$M) | 
NZD weak | 0.55 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44*0.55 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44*0.55-Market_Sizing!$J$44*Assumptions!$J$6 |  | =(Assumptions!$B$122+Assumptions!$B$123)/2*0.55 | 
Base (house view FY30) | 0.625 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44*Assumptions!$J$6 | 0 | BREAKEVEN | =(Assumptions!$B$122+Assumptions!$B$123)/2*Assumptions!$J$6 | 
NZD strong | 0.7 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44*0.7 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44*0.7-Market_Sizing!$J$44*Assumptions!$J$6 |  | =(Assumptions!$B$122+Assumptions!$B$123)/2*0.7 | 
FX drives the USD headline (Halberd reporting convention); NZD value is constant (NZ$625.6M FY30). Aurora EV USD scales identically. Breakeven = house-view FY30 rate 0.625 (central financial assumptions FX_Rates_Forecast). |  |  |  |  |  | 
2.  Price-tier trajectory — FR premium over barn, FY30 (price response modeled; output: market value NZ$M) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | FR premium (FY30) | Mkt value FY30 (NZ$M) | vs base (NZ$M) | Breakeven | Aurora FR EBITDA-at-risk (NZ$M) | 
Premium holds (IM claim) | 0.3 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44+Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.3-Assumptions!$J$59) | =Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.3-Assumptions!$J$59) |  | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$109*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.3-Assumptions!$J$59)*Assumptions!$B$117 | 
Base compression | 0.1 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44+Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.1-Assumptions!$J$59) | 0 |  | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$109*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.1-Assumptions!$J$59)*Assumptions!$B$117 | 
Hard collapse | 0.05 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44+Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.05-Assumptions!$J$59) | =Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.05-Assumptions!$J$59) |  | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$109*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.05-Assumptions!$J$59)*Assumptions!$B$117 | 
Breakeven (FR capex sub-economic) | 0.08 | =Market_Sizing!$J$44+Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.08-Assumptions!$J$59) | =Market_Sizing!$J$31*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.08-Assumptions!$J$59) | BREAKEVEN | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$109*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$48*(0.08-Assumptions!$J$59)*Assumptions!$B$117 | 
Price response modeled (§3.1): FR value = FR dozen x barn gate x (1+premium). IM claims 30%+ sustained (contested); expert/survey -> ~10% (base) or ~5% (collapse). Breakeven ~8%: below this FR conversion capex (NZ$58-65/bird) is sub-economic vs barn (NZ$45-50) — FR converters squeezed. Aurora FR EBITDA-at-risk uses Aurora FR dozen x margin. |  |  |  |  |  | 
3.  Conversion / transition timing (output: Aurora EBITDA-at-risk NZ$M pa; breakeven = consents <= Q1 2026) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Slippage (months) | Aurora EBITDA-at-risk (NZ$M pa) | vs base (NZ$M) | Breakeven | Aurora colony vol at risk (M doz) | 
On-time (consents Q4 2025) | 0 | 0 | 0 |  | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0 | 
+12-month slippage | 12 | 1.5 | 1.5 |  | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.3 | 
+24-month slippage | 24 | 2.5 | 2.5 |  | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.5 | 
Breakeven (consents <= Q1 2026) | 6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | BREAKEVEN | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.1 | 
Runway to end-2027 ~19mo (Calthorpe P2). Consents 5-10.5mo + build 14-16mo + DOC 6-9mo. Slippage -> colony not converted by deadline -> Foodstuffs delisting -> Aurora colony retail-access loss (~1.9M dox at risk) + capex overrun. EBITDA-at-risk directional (Calthorpe P4). Breakeven: consents lodged by Q1 2026. |  |  |  |  |  | 
4.  Cost-side — feed grain spike (output: Aurora EBITDA hit NZ$M/qtr; transient, 4-6mo pass-through lag) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Grain spike (%) | Aurora EBITDA hit (NZ$M/qtr) | vs base (NZ$M) | Breakeven | Margin compression (bps) | 
Base (no spike) | 0 | 0 | 0 |  | 0 | 
+10% spot grain | 10 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$85*1 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$85*1 |  | =Assumptions!$B$85*10000*1 | 
+20% spot grain | 20 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$85*2 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$85*2 |  | =Assumptions!$B$85*10000*2 | 
+30% spot grain | 30 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$85*3 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$85*3 |  | =Assumptions!$B$85*10000*3 | 
Feed = 55-65% of variable cost (Calthorpe P7). 10% spot grain spike -> 80-110 bps gross-margin hit for a quarter or two before 4-6mo retailer-contract pass-through. Aurora has no captive feed mill (4-6 weeks inventory vs Mainland 8-10) -> structurally short. Breakeven: pass-through catches up. Persistent spike compounds. Feed NZ$1.85-2.10/doz. |  |  |  |  |  | 
5.  Cost-side — electricity step-up FY28 (output: Aurora EBITDA hit NZ$M pa; persistent) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Elec step-up (%) | Aurora EBITDA hit (NZ$M pa) | vs base (NZ$M) | Breakeven | Margin headwind (bps) | 
Base (pre-stepup, FY24-27) | 0 | 0 | 0 |  | 0 | 
FY28 step-up (+18-22%) | 20 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$88 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$88 |  | =Assumptions!$B$88*10000 | 
Breakeven (tariff renewed pre-spike) | 0 | 0 | 0 | BREAKEVEN | 0 | 
Electricity = 8-12% of variable cost (barn/colony; Calthorpe P7). 18-20% cumulative inflation CY24-26 -> 150-220 bps headwind. Aurora tariff renewed 2024 at pre-spike rates, expires late 2027 -> 2027-28 cost step-up right as Phase-2 barn load ramps. Breakeven: tariff renewed pre-spike (Aurora's 2024 renewal captured this to late 2027). |  |  |  |  |  | 
6.  Supply-side — day-old chick (DOC) delay (output: Aurora colony volume at risk, M doz) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | DOC delay (months) | Colony vol at risk (M doz) | vs base (M doz) | Breakeven |  | 
On schedule | 0 | 0 | 0 |  | 0 | 
+1 quarter DOC delay | 3 | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.15 | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.15 |  | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.15 | 
+2 quarter DOC delay | 6 | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.3 | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.3 |  | =(Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12/1000000)*Assumptions!$B$110*0.3 | 
Breakeven (DOC contract secured) | 0 | 0 | 0 | BREAKEVEN | 0 | 
DOC supply 6-9 months order-to-delivery, no buffer (Calthorpe P2/P7). 3 global breeder-genetics firms (EW Group ~75-80%); NZ via Northern Hylines (Wellsford) + Henergy Cambridge. Aurora buys point-of-lay pullets from Northern Hylines + spot. DOC delay pushes bird-in-barn past deadline -> colony retail-access risk. Breakeven: DOC contract secured ahead of build. |  |  |  |  |  | 
7.  Supply-side — HPAI recurrence (output: sector EBITDA-at-risk NZ$M; biosecurity overhead) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Properties | Sector EBITDA-at-risk (NZ$M) | vs base | Breakeven | Supply impact | 
Contained (base, HPAI-free) | — | 0 | 0 | BREAKEVEN | 0 | 
Single-property recurrence | 1 | 0.5-1.5 | 0.5-1.5 |  | low | 
Multi-property outbreak | 2+ | 2.0-5.0+ | 2.0-5.0+ |  | high | 
NZ H7N6 (Nov-Dec 2024) = single Otago free-range property, culled & stamped out; HPAI-free resumed 24 Apr 2025 (WOAH self-decl). No national supply shock; biosecurity overhead persists. Recurrence (esp. multi-property) -> culls, repopulation delay (DOC lead time), cleaning, regional tightness. Breakeven: HPAI-free maintained. Unlike US/EU, NZ has no ongoing HPAI price-support cycle. |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Aurora

Aurora Eggs — flock, financials, EBITDA bridge & comp-haircut valuation |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Incorporates Aurora flock data (private; triangulated). Financials are management IM (unverified — pre-LOI). Valuation uses Halberd comp-haircut method (§1.1). No invest/pass verdict — IC owns the verdict. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
1.  Flock & footprint (private; triangulated) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora layer flock (hens) | =Assumptions!$B$106 |  | Aurora website + Hartley Pearce (~610k birds). |  |  |  |  |  | 
Sites | 2 |  | Waikato (NI, since 1958) + Canterbury/Selwyn (SI, since 1989). |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Mix — colony | =Assumptions!$B$107 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Mix — barn | =Assumptions!$B$108 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
  Mix — free-range | =Assumptions!$B$109 |  | Calthorpe P1 (Mark: 40-30-30); IM S4 (FR 30%). ~50%+ of FR pack = commodity FR. |  |  |  |  |  | 
Colony birds at risk (40% of flock) | =Assumptions!$B$106*Assumptions!$B$107 |  | ~244k birds -> conversion capex ~NZ$13.4M (Calthorpe P2). |  |  |  |  |  | 
2.  Financials — management IM (unverified); FY22-24A + IM forecast FY25-30E |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
NZ$M unless noted | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E
Revenue (NZ$M) | =Assumptions!$B$114 | =Assumptions!$C$114 | =Assumptions!$D$114 | =Assumptions!$E$114 | =Assumptions!$F$114 | =Assumptions!$G$114 | =Assumptions!$H$114 | =Assumptions!$I$114 | =Assumptions!$J$114
EBITDA reported (NZ$M) | =Assumptions!$B$115 | =Assumptions!$C$115 | =Assumptions!$D$115 |  |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA margin reported | =IFERROR(B15/B14,"") | =IFERROR(C15/C14,"") | =IFERROR(D15/D14,"") |  |  |  |  |  | 
Volume (M dozen) | =Assumptions!$B$116 | =Assumptions!$C$116 | =Assumptions!$D$116 |  |  |  |  |  | 
Revenue / dozen (NZ$) | =IFERROR(B14/B17,"") | =IFERROR(C14/C17,"") | =IFERROR(D14/D17,"") |  |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA adj FY24 (NZ$M) |  |  | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$118 |  |  |  |  |  | 
Revenue/dozen FY24 = NZ$6.46 — WELL ABOVE the gate-price blend (~NZ$4.17/doz: Aurora mix x tier gate x channel). Open question: is Aurora volume understated, does revenue include grading/packing/DTC uplift, or is the IM revenue optimistic? Audited financials needed. Adj EBITDA NZ$12.6M (14.9%) >13% benchmark -> addback scrutiny (Pacific Agri). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
3.  Volume-share triangulation (#2 by volume; additive to public roster) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Measure | Aurora share | Denominator |  | Source |  |  |  |  | 
Volume share (bottom-up flock 3.75M) | =Assumptions!$D$116/(Assumptions!$B$24*Assumptions!$B$25*Assumptions!$B$26/12) | Production (M doz) |  | Calthorpe P3; this model (15.5%) |  |  |  |  | 
Volume share (Calthorpe triangulated) | =Assumptions!$B$119 | National flock |  | Calthorpe P3 (18% on official base) |  |  |  |  | 
Retail-channel revenue share | =Assumptions!$B$120 | Retail revenue |  | Calthorpe P3 (~22-23%; more retail-concentrated) |  |  |  |  | 
Revenue share of producer gate rev | =Assumptions!$D$114/Market_Sizing!$D$48 | All-channel gate rev |  | This model (~23%) |  |  |  |  | 
Aurora #2 by volume behind Mainland (27%), ahead of Heyden (13%), Better (9%), Zeagold (7%), Henergy (6%). But #4/#5 on integration depth (no captive feed mill, no captive breeder, no industrial adjacency). Revenue share > volume share because Aurora is retail-concentrated (Calthorpe P3/P6). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
4.  EBITDA bridge & benchmark (Pacific Agri; analytical standards) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Item | NZ$M | Margin |  | Note |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA reported FY24 | =Assumptions!$D$115 | =Assumptions!$B$117 |  | IM S2 (10.8M; 12.8%) — sits in 10-12% cluster |  |  |  |  | 
+ Adjustments / addbacks | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$118-Assumptions!$D$115 | =Assumptions!$B$118-Assumptions!$B$117 |  | IM 'adjusted' (1.8M; +2.1pp) — schedule in data room, UNVERIFIED |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA adjusted FY24 | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$118 | =Assumptions!$B$118 |  | IM S2 (12.6M; 14.9%) — >13% addback threshold |  |  |  |  | 
Benchmark cluster (most producers) |  | =Assumptions!$B$78 |  | Pacific Agri (10-12%) |  |  |  |  | 
Benchmark range |  | =Assumptions!$B$76&"-"&Assumptions!$B$77 |  | Pacific Agri (8-15%) |  |  |  |  | 
Reported 12.8% sits in the 10-12% cluster. Adjusted 14.9% exceeds the 13% threshold that Pacific Agri flags for addback scrutiny — adjustments must survive an audit. Mainland trades 14-16% with the full integration stack; Aurora at 12.8% is mid-pack (Calthorpe P6). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
5.  Valuation — Halberd comp-haircut method (§1.1) vs IM asking |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Step | Value | Unit |  | Rationale / source |  |  |  |  | 
Starting multiple — Cal-Maine mid-cycle | =Assumptions!$B$154 | x EBITDA |  | Hartley Pearce (9-11x); Cal-Maine 10-K. US pure-play. |  |  |  |  | 
Scale haircut (Cal-Maine ~50x Aurora scale) | 0.4 | % |  | Analytical standards §1.1 (35-45% for >10x target revenue). |  |  |  |  | 
  After scale haircut | =B41*(1-B42) | x |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Private-company discount | 0.225 | % |  | §1.1 (20-25%; lack of marketability, governance, audited-financials uncertainty). |  |  |  |  | 
  After private discount | =B43*(1-B44) | x |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Risk haircut — regulatory-deadline exposure | -0.75 | x (abs) |  | §1.1: -0.5 to -1.0x absolute for named-deadline (regulatory) risk. Colony end-2027 retailer pledge. |  |  |  |  | 
FAIR-VALUE MULTIPLE (range) | =B45-1 | =B45-0.5 | x (low-high) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Adjusted EBITDA FY24 (NZ$M) | =Assumptions!$D$114*Assumptions!$B$118 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
FAIR-VALUE EV (range, NZ$M) | =B48*B47 | =B48*C47 | low-high |  |  |  |  |  | 
IM asking EV (NZ$M) | =Assumptions!$B$122 | =Assumptions!$B$123 | low-high (12-14x) |  |  |  |  |  | 
NEGOTIATION GAP (NZ$M) | =B50-B49 | =C50-C49 | IM asking - fair value |  |  |  |  |  | 
Comp-haircut fair value ~NZ$46-52M (3.65-4.15x adj EBITDA) — the IC's anchor. IM asking NZ$130-170M (12-14x) sits well above; the spread is the negotiation gap. NZ precedent: PEP->Mainland 7.0-7.5x WITH the full integration stack; Aurora lacks the stack (no captive feed/breeder) -> structural discount below 7x. A more generous strategic view (~6x, NZ$75M) still sits far below the IM ask. Do NOT use raw broker-asking multiples (§1.1). Discount-rate note: NZ WACC 10.5% (Assumptions; ±50bps sub-sector) is the rate for any DCF cross-check; the preliminary anchor here is the comp-haircut multiple (§1.1), not a DCF. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
6.  Cost structure — Aurora vs NZ benchmark (% net sales; Pacific Agri) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Line | Benchmark | Aurora read |  | Note |  |  |  |  | 
Feed (% cash cost) | =Assumptions!$B$69 | 60-65% (no captive mill) |  | Largest line; Mainland has MainFeeds captive -> Aurora structural disadvantage |  |  |  |  | 
Labour (% net sales) | =Assumptions!$B$70 | 8-12% |  | Automation lever; Aurora mid-pack |  |  |  |  | 
Packaging (% net sales) | =Assumptions!$B$71 | 4-6% |  | Huhtamaki Otahuhu concentrated |  |  |  |  | 
Distribution (% net sales) | =Assumptions!$B$72 | 6-8% |  | Two-site footprint; route consolidation lever |  |  |  |  | 
Depreciation (% net sales) | =Assumptions!$B$73 | rises post-Phase-2 build |  | Capex amortisation steps up with barn conversion |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA margin (cluster) | =Assumptions!$B$78 | =Assumptions!$B$117 |  | Aurora 12.8% reported (in cluster); adj 14.9% above threshold |  |  |  |  | 
7.  Competitive position summary (Calthorpe P6) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Volume share | #2 (18%) behind Mainland (27%) |  |  | Real, but invisible in public analyst coverage (private) |  |  |  |  | 
Integration depth | #4/#5 (no captive feed, breeder, industrial) |  |  | Mainland alone has full 7-stage stack; Aurora one tier down |  |  |  |  | 
Brand vs private-label | ~50/50 (most PL-exposed of top-5 excl Zeagold) |  |  | Mainland 70/30 branded; PL pressure real |  |  |  |  | 
EBITDA margin | 12.8% reported (mid-pack) |  |  | Below Mainland 14-16%; adj 14.9% flagged |  |  |  |  | 
Geographic footprint | 2 sites (Waikato + Canterbury) |  |  | Thinner than Mainland 7-farm/3-mill; concentration risk |  |  |  |  | 
Channel mix | 70 retail / 25 foodservice / 5 industrial |  |  | More retail-concentrated -> higher revenue share than volume share |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Profit_Pool

Retail Value-Chain Profit Pool — where margin sits & where Aurora captures |  |  |  |  |  | 
Pacific Agri Advisory tier shares (anchor). Per-dozen unit economics from Calthorpe P4 (retailer EBITDA/dozen ~2.5x producer). Aurora captures Tier 1 (producer) + Tier 2 (in-house grading). Tension between sources flagged. |  |  |  |  |  | 
1.  Tier shares of retail value-chain profit pool (Pacific Agri Advisory sec 4 — anchor) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Tier | Share (low) | Share (mid) | Share (high) | Aurora captures? | Note | 
Tier 1 — primary producer (egg producer) | 0.3 | 0.35 | 0.4 | YES | Aurora core; channel-mix dependent | 
Tier 2 — grader / packer / processor | 0.1 | 0.125 | 0.15 | YES (in-house) | Aurora has own grading line -> captures in producer EBITDA (Calthorpe P4) | 
Tier 3 — distributor / wholesaler | 0.08 | 0.1 | 0.12 | No | Producer-to-retailer direct at Aurora scale (no wholesaler) | 
Tier 4 — retailer / channel | 0.35 | 0.425 | 0.5 | No | Largest pool; Foodstuffs + Woolworths NZ capture | 
  Total (check =100%) | =B6+B7+B8+B9 | =C6+C7+C8+C9 | =D6+D7+D8+D9 |  |  | 
2.  Per-dozen unit economics — producer EBITDA vs retailer EBITDA (Calthorpe P4) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Tier / channel (NZ$ per dozen, FY26) | Shelf / gate | Producer cost | Producer EBITDA/doz | Producer margin | Retailer EBITDA/doz | Note
Free-range (retail) | Assumptions!$B$43 | 4.65 | n/a | 0.65 | 2 | FR shelf 8.50, gate 5.40; retailer net ~22-28% of shelf
Barn (retail) | Assumptions!$B$44 | 4.1 | n/a | 0.575 | 1.75 | Barn shelf 7.00, gate 4.50
Colony (retail) | Assumptions!$B$45 | 3 | n/a | 0.425 | 1.4 | Colony shelf 5.60, gate 3.40; thinnest producer $/doz
Foodservice (barn into FS) | — | 3.5 | n/a | 0.5 | n/a | Distributor +12-18% on gate; operator margin compounds
Industrial / processor | — | 2.4 | n/a | 0.4 | n/a | Lowest gate; processor margin layer
Retailer EBITDA/dozen ~2.5x producer EBITDA/dozen on the same product (Calthorpe P4). Retail is structurally the highest-margin, asset-light step; the producer is asset-heavy, capital-intensive, low-margin per dozen. Colony is double-jeopardy (2027 access risk + thinnest $/doz). |  |  |  |  |  | 
3.  Dollar allocation of retail value-chain profit pool (FY24, indicative — pool definition contested) |  |  |  |  |  | 
Building block | Value | Unit |  | Source / note |  | 
Retail value (shelf), FY24 — top-down | =Market_Sizing!$D$12 | NZ$M |  | Market_Sizing top-down retail (analyst anchor $459M). |  | 
Retailer EBITDA (est., net 25% of shelf) | =B23*0.25 | NZ$M |  | Calthorpe P4 net retailer margin 22-28% of shelf (~$2.00/doz). |  | 
Producer gate revenue (all-channel), FY24 | =Market_Sizing!$D$48 | NZ$M |  | Market_Sizing producer gate revenue (~$363M). |  | 
Producer EBITDA (est., 11% of gate rev) | =B25*Assumptions!$B$78 | NZ$M |  | Pacific Agri cluster 10-12% (mid 11%). |  | 
Retailer / producer EBITDA ratio | =B24/B26 | x |  | Compare Calthorpe P4 ~2.5x. Pool-definition tension — see note. |  | 
TENSION (flag for confirmatory DD): Pacific Agri assigns the producer 30-40% of the value-chain PROFIT pool and the retailer 35-50%. But Calthorpe P4's per-dozen economics imply the retailer captures ~2.5x the producer's EBITDA per dozen -> a retailer profit share materially above 35-50%. The two sources disagree on the retailer's share of profit. The model's implied producer EBITDA (~$40M all-channel) is also below the 30-40% pool share Pacific Agri implies. Resolve in confirmatory DD: reconcile Pacific Agri's pool definition vs Calthorpe's transaction-level unit economics. Aurora captures Tier 1 + Tier 2 (in-house grading) only. |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Open_Questions

Contested data points & confirmatory-DD open questions |  |  |  |  | 
Preliminary outside-in (pre-LOI): findings, risks and open questions carry equal weight. No invest/pass verdict. Items the deal team must resolve in confirmatory DD before any LOI. Organised by Vivian Holst's three hypotheses + financials/concentration/capex. |  |  |  |  | 
A.  Contested data points surfaced in this model (sources disagree — do not normalize) |  |  |  |  | 
# | Topic | What is contested | Sources in conflict | Model treatment | Tab
1 | Volume base (M dozen) | Consumption (pop x pcc) ~100M vs production (flock x lay) ~84M vs scan-data retail ~100M annualised — three different sizings; scan (reconciled ±2%) implies retail ~100M, exceeding total production. | Antipodean briefing; Calthorpe P3; RetailIQ scan; USDA | All three surfaced; bottom-up used for volume share, top-down for retail share; scan cross-check flagged. | Market_Sizing
2 | Production-system mix | Official 2022 baseline 33/33/34 (colony/barn/FR) vs current ~40/40/20 — 'colony compressed' yet colony 40%? barn 'came up some' yet 20%? Internal inconsistency in self-report. | NAWAC/EPFNZ 2022; Calthorpe P1; Antipodean briefing | 2022 = formal reference; 40/40/20 = leading estimate, flagged; forward path = managed conversion. | Assumptions
3 | Free-range premium | IM claims 30%+ over barn sustained; expert/survey show compression 18%->10% by FY30 (barn supply + cost-of-living trade-down). | Aurora IM S4; EPFNZ; Calthorpe P5; ACII | Compression modeled (fr_prem path); IM claim shown as contested upside; price-tier sensitivity. | Transition / Sensitivities
4 | Aurora per-capita growth | IM claims 1.5-2.0% pa per-capita; ACII survey says +0.6-0.8% pa. IM volume 5-7% pa implies ~4-5pp share gain pa. | Aurora IM S3; ACII Wave 11; Calthorpe P5 | Survey base used; IM claim benchmarked vs flat-share model (gap ~NZ$30M by FY30). | Forecast
5 | Aurora conversion capex | IM NZ$8-10M vs Calthorpe NZ$13.4M (244k birds x NZ$55). ~35% gap. | Aurora IM S5; Calthorpe P2 | Both shown; Calthorpe used for sizing; IM flagged low. | Transition / Aurora
6 | Aurora revenue / dozen | IM NZ$6.46/doz vs gate-price blend ~NZ$4.17/doz (mix x tier gate x channel). +55% gap — volume understated? revenue includes grading/DTC uplift? IM optimistic? | Aurora IM S2; Calthorpe P4 unit economics | Flagged; audited P&L needed to reconcile. | Aurora
7 | Aurora EBITDA quality | Reported 12.8% (in 10-12% cluster) vs adjusted 14.9% (>13% addback-scrutiny threshold). Adjustment schedule in data room, unverified. | Aurora IM S2; Pacific Agri benchmark | Both shown; adj flagged; addbacks must survive audit. | Aurora
8 | Aurora volume share | 15.5% (bottom-up flock 3.75M) vs 18% (Calthorpe, official base) — depends on flock denominator. | Calthorpe P3; Hartley Pearce; this model | 15.5% on bottom-up; 18% cited; both surfaced. | Aurora / Market_Sizing
9 | Profit-pool shares | Pacific Agri: producer 30-40%, retailer 35-50%. Calthorpe P4: retailer EBITDA/doz ~2.5x producer -> retailer share >35-50%. | Pacific Agri sec 4; Calthorpe P4 | Pacific Agri anchored; tension flagged. | Profit_Pool
10 | Aurora EV / multiple | IM asking NZ$130-170M (12-14x) vs comp-haircut fair value ~NZ$46-52M (3.65-4.15x). ~NZ$84-118M negotiation gap. | Aurora IM S7; Halberd §1.1 haircuts; PEP-Mainland precedent | Comp-haircut fair value = IC anchor; IM ask = negotiation gap. | Aurora
B.  Confirmatory-DD open questions (to resolve before LOI) |  |  |  |  | 
# | Hypothesis / theme | Open question | Evidence required | Sized impact (directional) | Owner
1 | Vivian H1 — FR premium | What are NZ retailers actually paying for free-range vs barn at the gate (transaction prices, not shelf)? Is the premium compressing? | Audited supplier invoices / contract price cards from Foodstuffs + Woolworths NZ; 24-mo gate-price series. | Premium 30%->10% swings Aurora FR EBITDA ~NZ$0.1-0.5M pa; market value ~NZ$8-31M. | Priya Iyer (Commercial)
2 | Vivian H2 — conversion timeline | Have resource consents been lodged? Notified? Are DOC supply contracts secured? What is the realistic bird-in-barn date vs end-2027? | Consent applications + council correspondence; DOC contracts; build contractor programme; capex schedule. | Slippage -> Aurora EBITDA-at-risk ~NZ$1.5-2.5M pa + capex overrun; retail-access loss. | Marcus Vale (Operations)
3 | Vivian H3 — volume share | Is Aurora genuinely #2 at ~17-19% volume, additive to the public roster? What is Aurora's win-rate vs the long-tail cage-egg exit? | Audited top-10 customer list; producer-by-producer flock census; Aurora pipeline vs exiting producers. | Share capture is the swing factor (~4-5pp pa to hit IM 5-7% growth); ~NZ$30M revenue gap by FY30. | Daniel Reyes / Maya Okonkwo
4 | Financials (audited) | Reconcile revenue/dozen (NZ$6.46 vs ~NZ$4.17 gate blend); validate the NZ$1.8M addback to adj EBITDA; confirm volume 13.1M dozen. | Audited FY22-24 P&L + volume; addback schedule; management QoE. | Adj EBITDA NZ$12.6M vs reported NZ$10.8M -> valuation anchor moves ~17%. | Daniel Reyes
5 | Customer concentration | Top-10 customer share; Foodstuffs vs Woolworths NZ split; contract terms, duration, PL vs branded; renewal timing vs 2027 deadline. | Audited customer list + contract summaries; PL tender docs. | Concentration >50% triggers risk haircut (§1.1); Vivian's #1 confirmatory priority. | Priya Iyer
6 | Capex & funding | Conversion capex NZ$8-10M (IM) vs NZ$13.4M (expert) — reconcile; funding source; how the partial-sale proceeds fund the programme. | Capex budget + quotes; consent/DOC/build schedule; funding plan. | Capex gap ~NZ$3-5M; affects leverage + deal proceeds use. | Marcus Vale
7 | Valuation | Validate comp-haircut fair value (~NZ$46-52M) vs IM ask (NZ$130-170M); test NZ-precedent multiple with/without integration stack. | PEP-Mainland 2025 detail; Cal-Maine/Inghams scale-adjusted; Aurora integration-depth diligence. | ~NZ$84-118M negotiation gap; deal economics hinge on entry multiple. | Daniel Reyes / Hugh Pemberton
8 | Demand & substitution | Will mainstream retailers range a chilled plant-based egg SKU (FY28-30 displacement 1.5-2.5%)? Cost-of-living trade-down trajectory. | Foodstuffs/Woolworths NZ assortment plans; ACII Wave 12 update. | Downside ~3-4% of market value by FY30; specialty premium durable. | Vivian Holst
9 | Supply-side / biosecurity | DOC supply concentration risk; HPAI recurrence contingency; electricity tariff renewal (late 2027) terms. | DOC contracts; biosecurity plan; electricity contract + renewal terms. | Feed 10% spike ~NZ$0.8M/qtr; elec step-up ~NZ$1.6M pa; HPAI recurrence NZ$0.5-5M+. | Marcus Vale
Stage discipline (analytical standards §9.2): this is preliminary outside-in DD. The IC owns the invest/pass verdict; the deal team owns the evidentiary surface. These open questions define the confirmatory-DD scope. Theo Lindgren / retired-consultant numbers were NOT imported into the bottom-up (per interview-note guidance) — Calthorpe anchors used throughout. |  |  |  |  |