# market_model.xlsx 中文阅读版

- 原始文件：`source_repo/submissions/gemini-3-1-pro/w1_t2/submission/market_model.xlsx`
- 处理方式：本地提取原文并添加中文结构说明
- 阅读提示：这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 中文结构说明

这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 原文提取

## 工作表：Assumptions

Category | Assumption | Value | Notes
Macro & Market | Population FY24 (M) | 5.22 | NZ Treasury 2024 demographics
 | Population Growth (% pa) | 0.009 | NZ Treasury
 | Per-Capita Consumption FY24 (eggs/year) | 229 | EPFNZ
 | Per-Capita Consumption Growth (% pa) | 0.007 | Dietary-mix shift (0.4-0.5%) + Demographic compounding (0.2-0.3%)
 | Wholesale-to-Retail Uplift (%) | 0.325 | NZCC 2022 grocery study
 | National Flock Size FY24 (M birds) | 3.75 | Midpoint of 3.7-3.8M current estimate
 | Eggs per hen per year | 318.7 | Calculated: (Pop * Per-Capita) / Flock
 | Retail Market Size FY24 (NZ$M) | 455 | FY24 Retail Shell-Egg Market
Aurora Specifics | FY24 Revenue (NZ$M) | 84.6 | Anchor Bay IM
 | FY24 Adjusted EBITDA (NZ$M) | 12.6 | Anchor Bay IM
 | FY24 Volume (M dozen) | 13.1 | Anchor Bay IM
 | Flock Size (birds) | 610000 | Expert Interview Part 2 (Note: Expert quotes Aurora at 17-19% of commercial volume)
 | Free-Range Mix (%) | 0.3 | Expert Interview Part 2
 | Colony Mix (%) | 0.7 | Expert Interview Part 2
Market Production Mix (FY24) | Free-Range (%) | 0.4 | Analyst Extract 2025
 | Colony (%) | 0.4 | Analyst Extract 2025
 | Barn (%) | 0.2 | Analyst Extract 2025
Free-Range Premium Trajectory | FY24 (%) | 0.25 | Historical / Interpolated
 | FY25 (%) | 0.22 | Interpolated
 | FY26 (%) | 0.18 | Expert Trajectory (Part 5)
 | FY27 (%) | 0.14 | Expert Trajectory (Part 5)
 | FY28 (%) | 0.12 | Expert Trajectory (Part 5)
 | FY29 (%) | 0.12 | Expert Trajectory (Part 5)
 | FY30 (%) | 0.12 | Expert Trajectory (Part 5)
Cost & Supply Sensitivities | Feed Cost (% of cash cost) | 0.625 | Midpoint of 60-65%
 | ETS Reversibility Risk (NZ$M pa) | 1 | Midpoint of NZ$0.5-1.5M (2026 election cycle)
 | Manure Sales Offset (NZ$M pa) | 0.375 | Midpoint of NZ$300-450k
 | Electricity Tariff Step-Up Year | 2027 | Tariff renewal risk
 | Plant-Based Substitution FY28-30 (%) | 0.02 | Midpoint of 1.5-2.5%
 | Colony-to-Barn Capex (NZ$M) | 9 | Midpoint of NZ$8-10M

## 工作表：Historical Sizing

Metric | FY22 | FY23 | FY24
Population (M) | 5.127293407891908 | 5.173439048562934 | 5.22
Per-Capita Consumption (eggs/year) | 225.8273515382393 | 227.408142999007 | 229
Total Eggs Consumed (M) | 1157.883090863703 | 1176.482166952246 | 1195.38
Total Dozens Consumed (M) | 96.49025757197525 | 98.04018057935387 | 99.615
Retail Market Size (NZ$M) | 440.727472722469 | 447.8068781168099 | 455
Aurora Volume (M dozen) | 11.8 | 12.4 | 13.1
Aurora Revenue (NZ$M) | 76.5 | 80.1 | 84.6
Aurora Adjusted EBITDA (NZ$M) | 8.9 | 9.7 | 12.6
Aurora Market Share (Volume %) | 0.1222921390918456 | 0.126478755207549 | 0.1315062992521207

## 工作表：Forecast

Metric | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30
Population (M) | 5.266979999999999 | 5.314382819999999 | 5.362212265379998 | 5.410472175768418 | 5.459166425350332 | 5.508298923178485
Per-Capita Consumption (eggs/year) | 230.603 | 232.2172209999999 | 233.8427415469999 | 235.4796407378289 | 237.1279982229937 | 238.7878942105546
Total Eggs Consumed (M) | 1214.58138894 | 1234.091209790543 | 1253.914416893408 | 1274.056044171966 | 1294.5212064095 | 1315.315100548056
Total Dozens Consumed (M) | 101.215115745 | 102.8409341492119 | 104.4928680744507 | 106.1713370143305 | 107.8767672007917 | 109.609591712338
Plant-Based Substitution Sensitivity (%) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.015 | 0.02 | 0.025
Net Shell-Egg Dozens Consumed (M) | 101.215115745 | 102.8409341492119 | 104.4928680744507 | 104.5787669591156 | 105.7192318567758 | 106.8693519195295
Aurora Volume Forecast (M dozen) | 13.886 | 14.71916 | 15.6023096 | 16.538448176 | 17.53075506656 | 18.5826003705536
Aurora Revenue Forecast (NZ$M) | 90.522 | 96.85853999999999 | 103.6386378 | 110.893342446 | 118.65587641722 | 126.9617877664254
Aurora Market Share (Volume %) | 0.1371929469011744 | 0.1431254988275775 | 0.1493145885218064 | 0.1581434612101098 | 0.1658237083136393 | 0.173881473376445
Cost/Supply Sensitivities: |  |  |  |  |  | 
  ETS Reversibility Risk (NZ$M) | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1
  Manure Sales Offset (NZ$M) | 0.375 | 0.375 | 0.375 | 0.375 | 0.375 | 0.375
  Colony-to-Barn Capex (NZ$M) | 0 | -4.5 | -4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0

## 工作表：Transition Scenarios

Scenario | Metric | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30
Scenario 1: Base Case (Expert View) | Colony (%) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0
 | Barn (%) | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6
 | Free-Range (%) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4
 | Free-Range Premium (%) | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12
Scenario 2: High Free-Range Conversion (Broker View) | Colony (%) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0
 | Barn (%) | 0.2 | 0.25 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5
 | Free-Range (%) | 0.4 | 0.45 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5
 | Free-Range Premium (%) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3
Scenario 3: Delayed Conversion (Risk Case) | Colony (%) | 0.4 | 0.35 | 0.3 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.05
 | Barn (%) | 0.2 | 0.25 | 0.3 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.5 | 0.55
 | Free-Range (%) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4
 | Free-Range Premium (%) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0.16