# market_model.xlsx 中文阅读版

- 原始文件：`source_repo/submissions/claude-fable-5/w1_t2/submission/market_model.xlsx`
- 处理方式：本地提取原文并添加中文结构说明
- 阅读提示：这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 中文结构说明

这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 原文提取

## 工作表：Assumptions

PROJECT ALBATROSS - NZ EGG MARKET MODEL |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Tab 1 of 4 - Assumptions register (all hardcoded inputs live on this tab; every input carries source + vintage). Workbook = working document: refresh inputs here as diligence arrives; calculation tabs update automatically. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Halberd Capital Partners | Preliminary outside-in CDD (pre-LOI) | Model date: w/c 4 May 2026 | Prepared per Halberd Analytical Standards v3.8 + MP Slack guidance (22 Apr 2026). Headline currency USD per firm convention; NZD shown side-by-side. Pure assessment - findings, scenarios and open questions only; no recommendation (standards s.9.2). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
LEGEND - WORKBOOK CELL-FORMATTING CONVENTION (applies to every tab; Halberd standards s.10) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Hardcoded input / assumption cell |  | 1 |  |  |  |  | Blue font on light-blue fill. The only cells a user should ever overtype. All live on this tab, each with source + vintage. |  | 
 | Calculation cell (same tab) |  | =1+1 |  |  |  |  | Black font, no fill. Formula referencing cells on the same tab. Do not overtype. |  | 
 | Cross-tab reference cell |  | =$D$6 |  |  |  |  | Green font, no fill. Formula referencing the Assumptions tab or another tab. Do not overtype. |  | 
 | Headline output / KPI cell |  | =2*2 |  |  |  |  | Bold white font on dark-navy fill. The figures quoted to IC; USD headline per firm convention. |  | 
 | Contested / superseded marker |  | flag |  |  |  |  | Dark-red on light-red. Not a data category - flags inputs that are contested across sources or superseded; see Supersession log below. |  | 
 | Labels (dark grey), section banners (white-on-slate), and grey-italic notes are furniture, not data cells. Convention is identical on every tab. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
B.  MACRO / FX / DISCOUNTING  (all from halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx - do not source FX externally) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Ref | Parameter | Unit | Value | Low | High |  |  | Source (file / section) | Vintage | Notes
A001 | NZD/USD - FY2022 (historical avg) | USD per NZD | 0.654 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Historical (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | Used only for Aurora FY22A side-by-side conversion.
A002 | NZD/USD - FY2023 (historical avg) | USD per NZD | 0.625 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Historical (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | FY-aligned rate per central-assumptions Notes tab (point-in-time work uses FY rate).
A003 | NZD/USD - FY2024 (historical avg) | USD per NZD | 0.602 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Historical (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | 
A004 | NZD/USD - FY2025 (historical avg) | USD per NZD | 0.585 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Historical (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | 
A005 | NZD/USD - FY2026 (house forecast) | USD per NZD | 0.595 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Forecast (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | Forecast rates applied by year for multi-year flows; no flat spot rate (standards s.7).
A006 | NZD/USD - FY2027 (house forecast) | USD per NZD | 0.61 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Forecast (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | 
A007 | NZD/USD - FY2028 (house forecast) | USD per NZD | 0.62 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Forecast (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | FX sensitivity low/high axis for FY28 set in section I.
A008 | NZD/USD - FY2029 (house forecast) | USD per NZD | 0.625 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Forecast (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | 
A009 | NZD/USD - FY2030 (house forecast) | USD per NZD | 0.625 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > FX_Rates_Forecast (row: NZD) | Apr 2026 update | 
A010 | NZ CPI forecast (annual, FY26 onward) | % p.a. | 0.027 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > Inflation_Forecast (New Zealand) | Apr 2026 update | Used for nominal price indexation context; commodity-gate inflation input set below (s.F).
A011 | NZ WACC (house view) | % p.a. | 0.105 |  |  |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx > WACC_by_Region (New Zealand) | Apr 2026 update | Carried for downstream valuation work; not applied inside this market model.
C.  DEMAND-SIDE INPUTS  (population x per-capita with dietary-mix drift - standards s.2.2; flat per-capita NOT permitted as central) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Ref | Parameter | Unit | Value | Low | High |  |  | Source (file / section) | Vintage | Notes
A012 | NZ population - FY2024 baseline | M people | 5.22 |  |  |  |  | nz_treasury_demographics_analytical_note_2024.pdf (AN 24/08) as applied in industry_analyst_extract_nz_eggs_2025.pdf (top-down build) + deal-team Slack (Theo, 4 May) | Sep 2024 (note); applied Q3 2025 / May 2026 | Treasury demographic baseline per standards s.2.2.
A013 | NZ population growth | % p.a. | 0.009 |  |  |  |  | Same as above (Treasury baseline ~0.9% p.a.) | Sep 2024 | Net-migration-led; long-run OLG note shows migration dependency.
A014 | Per-capita consumption - FY2023 | eggs/person/yr | 226 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team estimate interpolated from EPFNZ trend (~220 in 2015 -> 229 in 2025; transcript_nz_egg_association.pdf [00:05:24]) | Estimate, May 2026 | ESTIMATE - no published FY23 figure; refresh when EPF census updates (2027).
A015 | Per-capita consumption - FY2024 (actual) | eggs/person/yr | 227 |  |  |  |  | nz_dietary_trends_survey_2025.pdf (ACII Wave 11) Table 3 | Feb 2026 (field Sep-Oct 2025) | Current-vintage survey per standards s.2.2 (EPF stats page lags 2-4 yrs).
A016 | Per-capita consumption - FY2025 (actual) | eggs/person/yr | 229 |  |  |  |  | ACII Wave 11 Table 3; matches EPFNZ public figure (229) | Feb 2026 | 
A017 | Per-capita consumption - ACII central projection | eggs/person/yr | 230 | 232 | 233 | 234 | 235 | ACII Wave 11 Table 3 (projected); equals population x dietary-mix drift +0.4-0.5% p.a. | Feb 2026 | CENTRAL per-capita path. Drift decomposition: dietary-mix shift ~half + demographic-cuisine ~half (Calthorpe Part 5 [00:27:56]).
A018 | Per-capita - EPF flat (conservative case) | eggs/person/yr | 229 |  |  |  |  | EPFNZ public stats page via transcript_nz_egg_association.pdf [00:05:24] + Slack (Iris, 4 May) | Stats page lags 2-4 yrs (2025-era) | CONSERVATIVE sensitivity only - association page is a lagging source (standards s.2.2); superseded as central by ACII.
A019 | Per-capita growth - broker / IM claim | % p.a. | 0.0175 | 0.015 | 0.02 |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf s.3(b): "per-capita consumption growth ~1.5-2.0% pa" | 28 Feb 2026 | CONTESTED - 3-4x the ACII-supported drift; carried only as the sell-side sensitivity case.
A020 |   of which dietary-mix shift (flexitarian 21.4%) | % p.a. | 0.0023 | 0.002 | 0.0025 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 5 [00:03:12]+[00:27:56]: total drift 0.4-0.5% pa, ~half dietary mix; ACII Wave 11 Table 2 | 19 May 2026 / Feb 2026 | Documentation row (not separately wired). Iris annex arithmetic (0.6-0.8% pa combined) flagged as upside read vs Calthorpe 0.4-0.5% total.
A021 |   of which demographic-cuisine compounding | % p.a. | 0.0023 | 0.002 | 0.003 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 5 [00:27:56]: +0.2-0.3pp pa; Asian-NZ cohort 268 eggs/yr vs 229 natl (ACII addendum s.3) | 19 May 2026 | Documentation row.
A022 | Plant-based displacement by FY30 (sensitivity) | % of natl volume | 0.02 | 0.015 | 0.025 |  |  | ACII Wave 11 Egg Addendum s.1 + Calthorpe Part 5 [00:06:02]: 1.5-2.5% displaceable FY28-30 if retailer assortment evolves | Mar 2026 / 19 May 2026 | Phased FY28-30 in the consumer-demand sensitivity. Trigger = chilled plant-based SKU on the egg shelf at Foodstuffs / Woolworths NZ.
A023 | Free-range buyers trading down under budget pressure | % of FR buyers | 0.21 | 0.2 | 0.25 |  |  | ACII Wave 11 Egg Addendum s.2 (actual switch within 12 wks 21%); Calthorpe Part 5 [00:15:48] "20-25% price-sensitive flippers" | Mar 2026 / 19 May 2026 | Feeds the trade-down mix sensitivity (FR -> barn).
A024 | Eggs per dozen (conversion constant) | eggs | 12 |  |  |  |  | Conversion constant | n/a | 
D.  SUPPLY-SIDE INPUTS  (flock, yield, production-system mix, producer roster - bottom-up basis) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Ref | Parameter | Unit | Value | Low | High |  |  | Source (file / section) | Vintage | Notes
A025 | National layer flock - official (MPI/NAWAC census) | M hens | 3.45 | 3.4 | 3.5 |  |  | 2025-09 Antipodean extract + transcript_nz_egg_association.pdf [00:07:40] (MPI 3.4-3.5M); EPF FY25 annual restates the Dec-2022 census | Dec 2022 census - STALE | STALE - census-based, registered flocks only; superseded for modelling by insider bottom-up (below).
A026 | National flock - FY2023 (deal-team estimate) | M hens | 3.6 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team interpolation: Dec-2022 census 3.45M -> insider FY26 3.75M; Phase 2 needs more birds per egg (Calthorpe Part 2 [00:26:48]) | Estimate, May 2026 | ESTIMATE - refresh on census update.
A027 | National flock - FY2024 (deal-team estimate) | M hens | 3.7 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team interpolation (as above); consistent with Calthorpe Part 1 [00:04:01] "roughly 3.7-3.8M" | Estimate, May 2026 | ESTIMATE.
A028 | National flock - FY2025 (deal-team estimate) | M hens | 3.73 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team interpolation (as above) | Estimate, May 2026 | ESTIMATE.
A029 | National flock - FY2026 central case | M hens | 3.75 | 3.7 | 3.8 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:25:48] central case (sums producer roster); ~7% above official MPI 3.5M; Hartley Pearce note reconciles to same 3.75M | 8 May 2026 (interview) | WORKING ANCHOR for bottom-up.
A030 | Eggs per layer per year (blended) | eggs/hen/yr | 300 | 290 | 305 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:01:54] (300); EPFNZ rule-of-thumb 290-305, FR 285-295 / colony 295-310 (Marsden [00:06:18]) | 11 May / 7 May 2026 | 
A031 | Flock utilisation across year | % | 0.9 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:01:54] "90% utilisation across the year" | 11 May 2026 | Covers moult/replacement downtime.
A032 | System mix Dec-2022 - colony | % of flock | 0.33 |  |  |  |  | MPI/NAWAC Dec-2022 layer-hen survey, restated in EPF FY25 annual s.2 | Dec 2022 - STALE | SUPERSEDED for current-era work - see supersession log.
A033 | System mix Dec-2022 - barn | % of flock | 0.33 |  |  |  |  | Same | Dec 2022 - STALE | SUPERSEDED.
A034 | System mix Dec-2022 - free-range | % of flock | 0.34 |  |  |  |  | Same | Dec 2022 - STALE | SUPERSEDED. (Conventional cage = 0% since 1 Jan 2023 - Phase 1 complete.)
A035 | System mix FY26 current-era - free-range | % of flock | 0.4 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 1 [00:08:14]; corroborated industry_analyst_extract_nz_eggs_2025.pdf ("40/40/20 informed market-side estimate") | 6 May 2026 / Q3 2025 | CURRENT-ERA WORKING ANCHOR (incl. pasture-raised marketing sub-tier - MPI taxonomy per Vivian, Slack 5 May).
A036 | System mix FY26 current-era - colony | % of flock | 0.4 |  |  |  |  | Same | 6 May 2026 | The cohort that must exit packaged retail shelves by end-2027.
A037 | System mix FY26 current-era - barn | % of flock | 0.2 |  |  |  |  | Same | 6 May 2026 | 
A038 | Producer volume share - Mainland Poultry | % natl volume | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.3 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:25:48] central case; Part 1 range 25-30%; Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 (27%) | 8 May 2026 / 28 Mar 2026 | PEP-owned since Jan 2025 (NZ$340-380M, ~7.0-7.5x).
A039 | Producer volume share - Aurora Eggs (additive) | % natl volume | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.19 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:25:48] central 18% (refined from Part 1 range 17-19%); Slack lock (Theo + Vivian, 8 May) | 8 May 2026 | ADDITIVE to public roster - do not shrink tracked producers to fit Aurora in (Vivian must-test #3).
A040 | Producer volume share - Heyden Farms | % natl volume | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.15 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 central; Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 | 8 May 2026 | Family (Heyden); succession question, behind on Phase 2.
A041 | Producer volume share - Better Eggs | % natl volume | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.1 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 central; Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 | 8 May 2026 | 
A042 | Producer volume share - Zeagold Foods | % natl volume | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.08 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 central; Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 | 8 May 2026 | Mainland (PEP) eggs division.
A043 | Producer volume share - Henergy Cage Free | % natl volume | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 central; Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 | 8 May 2026 | Pure-play free-range.
A044 | Producer volume share - long tail / specialty (>30 ops) | % natl volume | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.22 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 central; Hartley Pearce key takeaways (~20-22% excl. Aurora) | 8 May 2026 | 25-30 sub-50k-bird colony operators + specialty cohort (150-200k birds).
A045 | Est. FY24 revenue - Mainland | NZ$M | 240 |  |  |  |  | nz_egg_producers_competitor_overview.pdf (Hartley Pearce) Exhibit 1 | 28 Mar 2026 | Capacity-implied estimates; privately-held caveat.
A046 | Est. FY24 revenue - Heyden | NZ$M | 108 |  |  |  |  | Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 | 28 Mar 2026 | 
A047 | Est. FY24 revenue - Better Eggs | NZ$M | 78 |  |  |  |  | Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 | 28 Mar 2026 | 
A048 | Est. FY24 revenue - Zeagold | NZ$M | 62 |  |  |  |  | Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 | 28 Mar 2026 | 
A049 | Est. FY24 revenue - Henergy | NZ$M | 48 |  |  |  |  | Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 | 28 Mar 2026 | 
A050 | Est. FY24 revenue - long tail / specialty | NZ$M | 305 | 280 | 330 |  |  | Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 (range ~280-330) | 28 Mar 2026 | Premium / direct-skewed pricing in the specialty cohort; mid carried.
A051 | Cage-free share of flock - Mainland | % | 0.85 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:32:10] (revised from 80% in Part 1) | 8 May 2026 | 
A052 | Cage-free share of flock - Heyden | % | 0.475 | 0.45 | 0.5 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:32:10] | 8 May 2026 | 
A053 | Cage-free share of flock - Better Eggs | % | 0.65 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:32:10] | 8 May 2026 | 
A054 | Cage-free share of flock - Zeagold | % | 0.725 | 0.7 | 0.75 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:32:10] | 8 May 2026 | 
A055 | Cage-free share of flock - Henergy | % | 1 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:32:10] "essentially 100%" | 8 May 2026 | 
A056 | Cage-free share of flock - Aurora | % | 0.6 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:32:10]: 30% barn + 30% FR; largest single colony block of named top-6 | 8 May 2026 | 
A057 | Colony conversion destination - to barn | % of converting hens | 0.65 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team assumption from Calthorpe Part 1 [00:09:11] (larger ops -> FR, smaller -> barn) + Part 2 [00:34:32] | Assumption, May 2026 | ASSUMPTION - drives the FY27-30 mix path (s.I).
A058 | Colony conversion destination - to free-range | % of converting hens | 0.25 |  |  |  |  | Same | Assumption, May 2026 | ASSUMPTION.
A059 | Colony conversion destination - exit / not converted | % of converting hens | 0.1 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:34:32]: long-tail exits; 6-10 operators by FY28 (Part 6 [00:30:56]) | 8 / 26 May 2026 | Exited capacity backfilled by named-producer expansion in central case.
E.  CHANNEL MIX & PRICING INPUTS  (MECE channel cut; markup-factor convention - standards s.2.3) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Ref | Parameter | Unit | Value | Low | High |  |  | Source (file / section) | Vintage | Notes
A060 | Channel mix - retail grocery | % natl volume | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.75 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 1 [00:05:08] (70-75%); EPF 3-channel cut retail 70-75% (Marsden [00:14:50]); USDA NZ Retail Foods 2024 + NZCC 2022 corroborate FS-vs-industrial split | 6 May 2026 | MECE five-channel cut sums to 100% (check row below). EPF lumps FS+industrial ("commercial" 22-25%); producers split them - model follows producer cut.
A061 | Channel mix - foodservice | % natl volume | 0.135 | 0.12 | 0.15 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 1 [00:05:38] (~15%) and Part 3 [00:03:42] (12-15%) | 6-11 May 2026 | 
A062 | Channel mix - industrial / processor | % natl volume | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.1 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 1 (10%) and Part 3 [00:03:42] (8-10%) | 6-11 May 2026 | Largely seconds-clearance (4-6% of throughput) per Part 4 [00:11:54].
A063 | Channel mix - own-use / institutional | % natl volume | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:03:42] (4-6%; schools, prisons, hospitals, defence, farm own-use) | 11 May 2026 | The slice "most analysts miss" - never touches a retail price point.
A064 | Channel mix - direct / farmgate / DTC | % natl volume | 0.025 | 0.02 | 0.03 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 1 [00:05:38] (2-3%); EPF residual 2-3% | 6 May 2026 | Premium-priced rounding error by volume.
A065 | Retail shelf-over-gate markup factor | x | 1.435 | 1.33 | 1.54 |  |  | Halberd Analytical Standards s.2.3 (divide shelf by 1.33-1.54; do NOT subtract a flat 25-35%); convention confirmed Vivian Slack 5 May; NZCC 2022 grocery-study uplift ~30-35% per Antipodean extract | Q2 2024 (standards) / 5 May 2026 | Mid-point 1.435 = ~30.3% retailer gross margin equivalent.
A066 | Average retail shelf price - FY2023 | NZ$/dozen | 6.51 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team calibration consistent with Antipodean FY24 top-down NZ$455M ("average shell-egg retail unit pricing") | Calibration, May 2026 | CALIBRATION - back-cast from FY24; refresh against scan-data history if licensed.
A067 | Average retail shelf price - FY2024 | NZ$/dozen | 6.61 |  |  |  |  | Calibration: reproduces the Antipodean / deal-team FY24 top-down NZ$455M given pop 5.22M x 229-227 eggs and markup 1.435 | Calibration, May 2026 | CALIBRATION ANCHOR. Pack-size-weighted average sits below 1-dozen scan prices (multi-packs cheaper/doz; colony-heavier FY24 mix).
A068 | Average retail shelf price - FY2025 | NZ$/dozen | 6.71 |  |  |  |  | Calibration (+1.5% on FY24) | Calibration, May 2026 | CALIBRATION.
A069 | Forward shelf-price inflation | % p.a. | 0.015 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team assumption (below NZ CPI 2.7%; egg category historically pass-through-driven) | Assumption, May 2026 | Used only in the retail-lens continuity line on Forecast.
A070 | Scan shelf price Q1-26 - colony (1-doz avg) | NZ$/dozen | 6.86 |  |  |  |  | nz_egg_retail_scan_data_q1_2026.xlsx > Pricing (Pak'nSave 6.69 / New World 6.99 / Countdown 6.89) | Q1 2026 (pulled 4 May 2026) | Reference rows - scan pricing is the refresh source for shelf calibration.
A071 | Scan shelf price Q1-26 - barn (1-doz avg) | NZ$/dozen | 7.92 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Pricing (7.59 / 8.19 / 7.99) | Q1 2026 (pulled 4 May 2026) | 
A072 | Scan shelf price Q1-26 - FR commodity (1-doz avg) | NZ$/dozen | 9.26 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Pricing (8.79 / 9.59 / 9.39) | Q1 2026 (pulled 4 May 2026) | 
A073 | Scan shelf price Q1-26 - pasture-raised (1-doz avg) | NZ$/dozen | 14.49 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Pricing (New World 14.99 / Countdown 13.99) | Q1 2026 (pulled 4 May 2026) | Marketing sub-tier within free-range housing (taxonomy note, Vivian Slack 5 May).
A074 | Scan retail tier mix Q1-26 - colony | % retail volume | 0.083 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Volume (2,065k of 25,000k dozens) | Q1 2026 | Woolworths NZ already phasing colony out (0% promo; 1.0% of natl retail).
A075 | Scan retail tier mix Q1-26 - barn | % retail volume | 0.273 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Volume | Q1 2026 | 
A076 | Scan retail tier mix Q1-26 - FR commodity | % retail volume | 0.552 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Volume | Q1 2026 | Largest tier-channel cell.
A077 | Scan retail tier mix Q1-26 - pasture-raised premium | % retail volume | 0.091 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Volume | Q1 2026 | 
A078 | Producer gate - free-range commodity (retail) | NZ$/dozen | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 4 [00:01:10] (transaction-price evidence, FY26) | 13 May 2026 | Branded gate; private-label FR gate 12-18% lower (NZ$4.55-4.85) - Aurora ~50/50 brand/PL.
A079 | Producer gate - barn (retail) | NZ$/dozen | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 4 [00:04:14] | 13 May 2026 | 
A080 | Producer gate - colony (retail) | NZ$/dozen | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.5 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 4 [00:04:14] | 13 May 2026 | Thinnest absolute-margin tier (EBITDA NZ$0.35-0.50/doz).
A081 | Producer gate - foodservice | NZ$/dozen | 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 4 [00:08:18] (barn product into foodservice; Bidfood/Gilmours +12-18% on top) | 13 May 2026 | Standards s.2.3: foodservice gate typically 10-15% below retail wholesale - holds here.
A082 | Producer gate - industrial / processor | NZ$/dozen | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 4 [00:10:24]; breaker stacks +10-15% | 13 May 2026 | 
A083 | Producer gate - own-use / institutional (est.) | NZ$/dozen | 3.2 | 3 | 3.4 |  |  | Deal-team estimate at industrial floor (no published price point - never touches retail) | Estimate, May 2026 | ESTIMATE.
A084 | Producer gate - direct / DTC (est.) | NZ$/dozen | 12 | 10 | 14 |  |  | Standards s.2.3 (direct 40-60% above retail shelf for premium tier) applied to scan premium shelf | Q2 2024 / Q1 2026 | ESTIMATE.
A085 | Producer gate - pasture-raised premium (retail) | NZ$/dozen | 10.1 |  |  |  |  | Scan premium shelf NZ$14.49 / markup 1.435 | Q1 2026 derived | Pasture-raised commands 50%+ over commodity barn (Calthorpe Part 2 [00:12:40]).
A086 | Blended producer gate - all channels (bottom-up) | NZ$/dozen | 6.4 |  |  |  |  | Implied by Calthorpe Part 3 [00:01:54] bottom-up: NZ$535-545M / (3.75M hens x 300 x 90% /12); Aurora FY24 realised NZ$6.46/doz (84.6/13.1) corroborates | 11 May 2026 | CALIBRATION ANCHOR. Sits ABOVE the Part 4 channel-gate build (~NZ$5.1-5.2/doz -> ~NZ$430-440M) - spread surfaced on Historical tab; confirmatory pricing question. Market-size LEVELS scale linearly with this input; growth rates / scenario deltas are robust to it.
A087 | Commodity gate inflation (colony/barn/premium) | % p.a. | 0.015 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team assumption: below NZ CPI 2.7% (feed/energy pass-through lag, retailer buying power) | Assumption, May 2026 | ASSUMPTION.
A088 | Free-range premium over barn - historical | % over barn gate | 0.3 |  |  |  |  | Marsden [00:11:42] (~30% late-2010s); broker/IM claims "30%+ continuing"; EU precedent 25-35% pre-compression (global_cagefree_transition_snapshot.pdf) | Historical era | HISTORICAL ONLY - the 30%+ forward claim is contested; do not use forward (Vivian must-test #1).
A089 | Own-price elasticity - colony | x | -0.42 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Elasticity (13-wk panel; se 0.18 **) | Q1 2026 | Inelastic value tier.
A090 | Own-price elasticity - barn | x | -0.81 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Elasticity (se 0.21 **) | Q1 2026 | 
A091 | Own-price elasticity - FR commodity | x | -1.34 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Elasticity (se 0.19 **) | Q1 2026 | Elastic - promo-driven; supports premium-compression mechanics.
A092 | Own-price elasticity - pasture-raised premium | x | -0.56 |  |  |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Elasticity (se 0.27 *) | Q1 2026 | Premium tier largely independent of commodity tiers.
A093 | Cross-price elasticity barn <-> FR commodity | x | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.71 |  |  | RetailIQ scan > Elasticity matrix (+0.62 / +0.71 **) | Q1 2026 | Largest substitution pair - the channel through which barn supply growth compresses the FR premium.
F.  AURORA EGGS - FLOCK, FINANCIALS & CONVERSION PROGRAMME  (privately held; additive to public roster) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Ref | Parameter | Unit | Value | Low | High |  |  | Source (file / section) | Vintage | Notes
A201 | Aurora layer flock | hens | 610000 |  |  |  |  | broker_outreach_aurora.eml (Tasman Mercantile, N. Chen); aurora_eggs_website_snapshot.html ("~610,000"); Calthorpe Part 3 [00:09:24] | 20 Apr 2026 / May 2026 | Two sites: Waikato (NI) + Canterbury Plains nr Christchurch (SI).
A202 | Aurora system mix - colony | % of flock | 0.4 |  |  |  |  | broker_outreach_aurora.eml (Tasman Mercantile, N. Chen); Calthorpe Part 1 [00:09:55] (Mark McKenna, ~1yr ago) | 20 Apr 2026 | Largest single colony block of named top-6 - the deal-defining exposure.
A203 | Aurora system mix - barn | % of flock | 0.3 |  |  |  |  | Same | 20 Apr 2026 | 
A204 | Aurora system mix - free-range | % of flock | 0.3 |  |  |  |  | Same | 20 Apr 2026 | Commodity-tier FR (not pasture-raised); small Heritage Range pasture SKU ~2% of revenue.
A205 | Aurora revenue - FY22A | NZ$M | 76.5 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2 | 28 Feb 2026 | Management accounts, unaudited.
A206 | Aurora revenue - FY23A | NZ$M | 80.1 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2 | 28 Feb 2026 | 
A207 | Aurora revenue - FY24A | NZ$M | 84.6 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2; matches broker outreach + pipeline tracker | 28 Feb 2026 | Calthorpe Part 1 [00:13:17]: revenue consistent with volume x price x mix.
A208 | Aurora EBITDA - FY22A | NZ$M | 8.9 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2 | 28 Feb 2026 | 11.6% margin.
A209 | Aurora EBITDA - FY23A | NZ$M | 9.7 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2 | 28 Feb 2026 | 12.1% margin.
A210 | Aurora EBITDA - FY24A (reported) | NZ$M | 10.8 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2; broker outreach | 28 Feb 2026 | 12.8% margin - high side of industry 8-15% (cluster 10-12%); Calthorpe Part 1 [00:13:17].
A211 | Aurora EBITDA - FY24 "Adjusted" (sell-side) | NZ$M | 12.6 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2 (14.9% margin; addback schedule in data room only) | 28 Feb 2026 | CONTESTED - unaudited addbacks; Pacific Agri briefing: >13% margins must be examined for addbacks. Model uses reported 10.8.
A212 | Aurora volume - FY22A | M dozen | 11.8 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2 | 28 Feb 2026 | 
A213 | Aurora volume - FY23A | M dozen | 12.4 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2 | 28 Feb 2026 | 
A214 | Aurora volume - FY24A | M dozen | 13.1 |  |  |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.2 | 28 Feb 2026 | Implies NZ$6.46/doz realised - corroborates the NZ$6.40 blended-gate anchor.
A215 | Aurora volume share (bottom-up basis) | % natl volume | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.19 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 central [00:25:48]; triangulation spread 16-18% surfaced on Historical tab | 8 May 2026 | WORKING ANCHOR (=A-section roster row).
A216 | Aurora retail-channel share (top-down basis) | % retail channel | 0.225 | 0.22 | 0.23 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:07:10]: "22-23% retail share - they look bigger from the retail lens" | 11 May 2026 | Standards s.2.1(c): volume share from bottom-up; retail share from top-down.
A217 | Aurora channel mix - retail | % revenue | 0.72 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:29:42] (72/22/5/~1); broker ~70/25/5 | 8 May 2026 | Heavier retail than industry avg.
A218 | Aurora channel mix - foodservice | % revenue | 0.22 |  |  |  |  | Same | 8 May 2026 | Mid-tier hospitality accounts; diversified.
A219 | Aurora channel mix - industrial | % revenue | 0.05 |  |  |  |  | Same | 8 May 2026 | One long-running mayonnaise-manufacturer contract; seconds clearance.
A220 | Aurora channel mix - direct | % revenue | 0.01 |  |  |  |  | Residual (Heritage Range pasture SKU, couple % of revenue - Part 2 [00:36:38]) | 8 May 2026 | 
A221 | Customer concentration - top-3 retail customers | % revenue | 0.65 | 0.6 | 0.7 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:15:01]: 60-70%, point estimate 65 (FSNI, FSSI, Woolworths NZ) | 8 May 2026 | Confirmatory-DD priority #1 (Vivian) - audited top-10 required; model input is directional only.
A222 | Conversion capex per bird - industry range | NZ$/bird | 55 | 45 | 65 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:01:18] NZ$45-65 all-in; EPF "low-40s to high-60s" (Marsden [00:20:22]); Hartley Pearce key takeaways | 8 May 2026 | Aurora expected mid-range NZ$52-58 (modern colony sheds, late-2010s upgrades).
A223 | Broker capex claim - Aurora colony-to-barn | NZ$M | 9 | 8 | 10 |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.5 ("NZ$8-10M, in line with industry benchmarks") | 28 Feb 2026 | CONTESTED - implies NZ$33-41/bird vs industry NZ$45-65; model carries the expert-anchored range.
A224 | Physical build cycle (post-consent) | months | 15 | 14 | 16 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:06:30]: industry 12-18; Aurora 14-16 keeping shed footprints; Marcus Vale (Slack 6 May) 12-18 | 8 May 2026 | 
A225 | Resource consent - non-notified | months | 5 | 4 | 6 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:07:24] (RMA + building consents, like-for-like footprint) | 8 May 2026 | No public lodgement found in Selwyn or Waikato registers as of 11 May 2026 (Part 3 [00:16:38]).
A226 | Resource consent - publicly notified | months | 10.5 | 9 | 12 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:07:24] | 8 May 2026 | 
A227 | DOC / pullet lead time - normalised (mid-2026) | months | 4.5 | 4 | 5 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:23:22]: waitlist back to 4-5 months historical norm by mid-2026 | 2 Jun 2026 | 
A228 | DOC / pullet lead time - Phase-2-peak / tight | months | 7.5 | 6 | 9 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 2 [00:04:18] + Marsden [00:20:22]: 6-9 months order-to-delivery in conversion-wave conditions | 8 May 2026 | Runs in parallel with build if ordered at consent grant; recurring re-tightening risk into 2027.
A229 | Conversion equipment lead time (order to commissioning) | months | 11.5 | 9 | 14 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:26:56] (Big Dutchman / Vencomatic / Salmet; nationally constrained pipeline through 2027) | 2 Jun 2026 | Industry chatter: Aurora signed Big Dutchman late 2025; commissioning Q3 2026 - Q1 2027 (unconfirmed).
A230 | Aurora EBITDA-at-risk per year of slippage | NZ$M/yr | 3.5 | 3 | 4 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:20:32]: 244k colony birds ~70M eggs; retail gate ~NZ$0.50/egg -> industrial ~NZ$0.30 = ~NZ$14M revenue hit, NZ$3-4M EBITDA | 11 May 2026 | ~30-35% of FY24 EBITDA per slip-year; retailers de-list colony 1 Jan 2028, no grace period (Part 3 [00:30:38]).
A231 | P(complete by end-2027) - if consents already lodged | probability | 0.5 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:17:48] | 11 May 2026 | Lodgement status unknown - top confirmatory question.
A232 | P(complete by end-2027) - if starting consents now | probability | 0 |  |  |  |  | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:17:48]: "0% - looking at mid-to-late 2028" | 11 May 2026 | 
A233 | Aurora EBITDA margin path - central (Managed Conversion) | % revenue | 0.125 | 0.122 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Deal-team estimate: FY24A 12.8% less premium-compression drag on the 30% FR book, partial cost pass-through; industry cluster 10-12% (Pacific Agri FY24 briefing) | Estimate, May 2026 | ESTIMATE - preliminary outside-in; refresh on audited financials + adj-EBITDA bridge.
A234 | Broker share-capture claim (long-tail exits) | pp by FY30 | 0.025 | 0.02 | 0.03 |  |  | aurora_eggs_information_memorandum_draft.pdf (Anchor Bay, Draft v0.4) s.3(c): "~2-3pp incremental share" from non-converting exits | 28 Feb 2026 | CONTESTED as base case - plausible direction (long-tail exits are real) but unsized by evidence; carried as upside sensitivity only.
G.  COST-SIDE / INPUT-COST & SUPPLY-SIDE INPUTS  (feed, electricity, DOC, packaging, labour, ETS, biosecurity - Calthorpe Part 7) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Ref | Parameter | Unit | Value | Low | High |  |  | Source (file / section) | Vintage | Notes
A235 | Feed grain - share of variable cost per dozen | % | 0.6 | 0.55 | 0.65 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:02:48]; Pacific Agri FY24 briefing s.3 (feed 60-65% of cash cost) | 2 Jun 2026 / Oct 2024 | Dominant P&L line; poultry is a price-taker on a dairy-led grain market (12% of NZ grain offtake).
A236 | Feed cost per dozen (FY24 prices) | NZ$/dozen | 1.975 | 1.85 | 2.1 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:07:18] | 2 Jun 2026 | 
A237 | NZ feed wheat price (CY2024-25 range) | NZ$/tonne | 470 | 430 | 510 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:04:42] + USDA FAS NZ Grain & Feed reports; 2023 dry-summer spike >NZ$540/t | 2 Jun 2026 / 2024-25 | NZ imports ~60% of feed grain demand (AU wheat/barley).
A238 | Feed pass-through lag (retail contracts) | months | 5 | 4 | 6 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:07:18] (Foodstuffs / Woolworths NZ contract review windows) | 2 Jun 2026 | Aurora holds 4-6 wks feed inventory vs Mainland captive 8-10 wks - structural asymmetry.
A239 | Margin impact of +10% spot grain spike | bps (1-2 qtrs) | 95 | 80 | 110 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:07:18] | 2 Jun 2026 | Gross-margin compression before pass-through catches up; no NZ grain futures hedge exists.
A240 | Electricity - share of variable cost (Aurora blended) | % | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.1 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:12:22] (barn/colony 8-12%; FR 5-8%; Aurora 40/30/30 mix -> 8-10%) | 2 Jun 2026 | 
A241 | Cumulative industrial electricity inflation CY2024-26 | % | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.2 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:14:48]: 17.8c/kWh 2024 (Stats NZ/MBIE); +12% 2025; +5%+ 2026 forward curve | 2 Jun 2026 | 
A242 | Margin headwind if electricity not passed through | bps on colony/barn lines | 185 | 150 | 220 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:14:48] | 2 Jun 2026 | Aurora re-tariffs late 2027 (renewed 2024 pre-spike) -> FY28 cost step-up risk, lands with new owner.
A243 | Labour - share of variable cost | % | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0.22 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:38:50] (Aurora 110-130 staff, 2 sites); Pacific Agri: labour 8-12% of net sales (different basis - net sales vs variable cost) | 2 Jun 2026 / Oct 2024 | AEWV median-wage tightening = wage pressure; no RSE access for layer farms.
A244 | Packaging - share of variable cost | % | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:33:56]; Pacific Agri 4-6% of net sales | 2 Jun 2026 | Huhtamaki Otahuhu = sole NZ moulded-fibre plant; common-mode 2-3 wk disruption propagation; AU import lead 4-6 wks.
A245 | ETS re-inclusion exposure - Aurora annual (downside) | NZ$M/yr | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:42:26]: agriculture removed from ETS 2024; reversibility via 2026 election ("under review" - Labour) | 2 Jun 2026 | 5-15% of FY24 EBITDA; downside scenario from FY28, not central case.
A246 | Biosecurity event cost per affected farm (one-off) | NZ$M | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:46:26] (H7N6 Otago cleanout actuals: cull, cleanout, repopulation, interruption); WOAH self-declaration Sep 2025 | 2 Jun 2026 / 12 Sep 2025 | 25-35% of EBITDA in impact year per affected farm; insurance premiums +25-35% on renewal post-H7N6.
A247 | H7N6 FY25 industry cost overlay (one-off) | % of cost base | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 1 [00:17:58]: ~3-5% one-off FY25 overlay then normalising; NOT a national supply shock (WOAH: single Otago property, stamped out, HPAI-free from 24 Apr 2025) | 6 May 2026 / 12 Sep 2025 | Discount any "NZ next" speculation (Whitlock call) - WOAH is ground truth (Vivian, Slack 7 May).
A248 | Manure offtake revenue offset - Aurora | NZ$M/yr | 0.375 | 0.3 | 0.45 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 7 [00:50:12]: ~18,000 t/yr at NZ$15-25/t (Ravensdown / Ballance) | 2 Jun 2026 | Already inside reported EBITDA; not in sell-side framing.
H.  TRANSITION-SCENARIO PARAMETERS  (three named scenarios - deadline is FIXED at end-2027 retailer pledge; scenarios vary HOW the colony cohort moves, per Vivian Slack 4 May) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Ref | Parameter | Unit | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | Source (file / section) | Vintage | Notes
A249 | S1 MANAGED CONVERSION - colony share of flock | % flock | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | Scenario architecture: Vivian Holst Slack 4 May 2026 (managed conversion / capacity gap with imports / premium collapse); standards s.3.1; mix path from destination split (s.D) + completion 95% | May 2026 | Named top-6 convert on schedule; long-tail partial exit redistributes share.
A250 | S1 MANAGED CONVERSION - barn share | % flock | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.46 | As above | May 2026 | 
A251 | S1 MANAGED CONVERSION - free-range share | % flock | 0.4 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.54 | As above | May 2026 | Incl. pasture-raised sub-tier.
A252 | S1 MANAGED CONVERSION - FR premium over barn | % over barn gate | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:10:38]: central trajectory 18 -> 14 -> 12 (transaction-price evidence, two retail buyers + one FS distributor); EU precedent 25-35% -> 12-18% | 11 May 2026 | CENTRAL price path. Long-tail exits already baked in (else FY28 would be 9-10%).
A253 | S1 MANAGED CONVERSION - cage-free gate adjustment | % on barn+FR gate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Definitionally zero in central case | May 2026 | 
A254 | S1 MANAGED CONVERSION - supply adjustment | % volume | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Supply tracks demand in central case | May 2026 | 
A255 | S2 CAPACITY GAP - colony share of flock | % flock | 0.4 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0 | Scenario architecture: Vivian Holst Slack 4 May 2026 (managed conversion / capacity gap with imports / premium collapse); standards s.3.1; conversion lags (DOC re-tightens 6-9mo, notified consents 9-12mo, equipment queue) | May 2026 | ~70-80% of cohort converted at deadline; residual colony stranded out of retail.
A256 | S2 CAPACITY GAP - barn share | % flock | 0.2 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 0.46 | As above | May 2026 | 
A257 | S2 CAPACITY GAP - free-range share | % flock | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.54 | As above | May 2026 | 
A258 | S2 CAPACITY GAP - FR premium over barn | % over barn gate | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.145 | 0.14 | 0.14 | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:12:38] upside premium case (14-15% FY28 if marginal barn capacity does not land) | 11 May 2026 | 
A259 | S2 CAPACITY GAP - cage-free gate adjustment | % on barn+FR gate | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 | Marsden [00:38:24]: 12-18 months of elevated wholesale pricing if colony exits outrun barn standing up | 7 May 2026 | Price response modelled, not flat (standards s.3.1).
A260 | S2 CAPACITY GAP - supply adjustment | % volume | 0 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0 | Deal-team sizing of the shortfall; AU barn imports partially backfill the value tier (Calthorpe Part 2 [00:40:28]) | May 2026 | Imports cap the gate-price spike at the value end.
A261 | S3 PREMIUM COLLAPSE - colony share of flock | % flock | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | Scenario architecture: Vivian Holst Slack 4 May 2026 (managed conversion / capacity gap with imports / premium collapse); standards s.3.1; conversion completes (mix = S1) but barn overshoots demand | May 2026 | 
A262 | S3 PREMIUM COLLAPSE - barn share | % flock | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.46 | As above | May 2026 | 
A263 | S3 PREMIUM COLLAPSE - free-range share | % flock | 0.4 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.54 | As above | May 2026 | 
A264 | S3 PREMIUM COLLAPSE - FR premium over barn | % over barn gate | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | Calthorpe Part 3 [00:12:38] downside: 8-10% by FY28 on barn oversupply + FR price war; cost-of-living trade-down (20-25% flippers) reinforces | 11 May 2026 | 
A265 | S3 PREMIUM COLLAPSE - cage-free gate adjustment | % on barn+FR gate | 0 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.02 | Deal-team sizing: barn-tier oversupply discount (Marsden inverse case; scan cross-elasticity barn<->FR 0.62-0.71) | May 2026 | 
A266 | S3 PREMIUM COLLAPSE - supply adjustment | % volume | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Volume holds; effect is price/mix | May 2026 | 
A267 | S1 colony-cohort conversion completed by 31 Dec 2027 | % of cohort | 0.95 | 0.9 | 1 |  |  | Deal-team scenario definition | May 2026 | Boundary metric for scenario classification.
A268 | S2 colony-cohort conversion completed by 31 Dec 2027 | % of cohort | 0.75 | 0.7 | 0.8 |  |  | Deal-team scenario definition | May 2026 | 
A269 | S3 colony-cohort conversion completed by 31 Dec 2027 | % of cohort | 1 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team scenario definition (overshoot) | May 2026 | 
A270 | FX sensitivity axis - FY28 NZD/USD low | USD per NZD | 0.55 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team sensitivity axis around house FY28 0.620 (~-11%) | May 2026 | Standards s.3.2 FX table.
A271 | FX sensitivity axis - FY28 NZD/USD high | USD per NZD | 0.68 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team sensitivity axis (~+10%) | May 2026 | 
A272 | Timing sensitivity axis - slippage case B | months past end-2027 | 6 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team sensitivity axis; Calthorpe Part 3 [00:15:24] "early 2028" slip case | May 2026 | 
A273 | Timing sensitivity axis - slippage case C | months past end-2027 | 12 |  |  |  |  | Deal-team sensitivity axis; "mid-to-late 2028" if consents start now | May 2026 | 
I.  SUPERSESSION & CONTESTED-INPUT LOG  (explicit per Daniel Reyes Slack 8 May 2026; Hugh holds the line on this in pre-IC review) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | SUPERSEDED | MPI / NAWAC production-system mix 33% colony / 33% barn / 34% free-range (Dec 2022 census; restated unchanged in EPF FY25 annual s.2) |  |  |  |  |  | Superseded as current-era read by 40% FR / 40% colony / 20% barn - Calthorpe Part 1 [00:08:14], corroborated by Antipodean Q3-2025 "informed market-side estimate". 2022 figure retained above as the formal baseline only; EPF will not refresh the public census before 2027. |  | 
 | SUPERSEDED | Deal-team draft producer roster of 5 May 2026 (Aurora ~15%, Better Eggs 10%, Zeagold 8%, long-tail ~21%) |  |  |  |  |  | Superseded by Calthorpe Part 2 central case of 8 May 2026 (Aurora 18%, Better Eggs 9%, Zeagold 7%, long-tail 20%, flock 3.75M) - locked as the working anchor by Vivian + Theo, Slack 8 May. Do not use the Wednesday draft figures. |  | 
 | SUPERSEDED | EPF public per-capita 229 held flat across the forecast (industry-association stats page) |  |  |  |  |  | Superseded as the central path by the ACII Wave 11 projection (230 -> 235, +0.4-0.5% pa dietary-mix drift) per standards s.2.2 and Vivian Slack 5 May. EPF-flat retained as the conservative consumer-demand case. |  | 
 | SUPERSEDED | Shelf-minus-30% subtraction for backing wholesale out of scan shelf prices |  |  |  |  |  | Wrong convention - replaced by divide-by-markup-factor 1.33-1.54 (standards s.2.3; Vivian Slack 5 May: "multiplicative, not additive"). |  | 
 | CONTESTED | Broker / IM: free-range premium "30%+ has averaged over the past decade and is expected to remain at or above this level" (IM s.4) |  |  |  |  |  | Contradicted by transaction-price evidence: 18-22% current (Pak'nSave 15-17%; NW/Countdown 20-22%) compressing to ~14% FY27 / ~12% FY28 central - Calthorpe Parts 2-3; Marsden "meaningfully below 30%, trending down"; EU precedent 25-35% -> 12-18%. Model carries the compression path; 30% appears only as the historical marker. |  | 
 | CONTESTED | Broker / IM: "clear path by 2027 - consents in active progress; build from Q3 2026; capex NZ$8-10M" (IM s.5) |  |  |  |  |  | No consent found in public RMA registers (Selwyn + Waikato DC) as of 11 May 2026; expert capex NZ$11-16M at NZ$45-65/bird; end-to-end runway 24-30 months vs 19 months remaining. P(on-time)=~50% if consents privately lodged, ~0% if starting now. Carried as a scenario variable, not a fact. |  | 
 | CONTESTED | Broker / IM: volume growth 5-7% pa, per-capita +1.5-2.0% pa, share capture +2-3pp (IM s.3) |  |  |  |  |  | ACII-supported per-capita drift is +0.4-0.5% pa; population +0.9% pa; category volume ~+1.3-1.5% pa. Broker case requires ~5x the supported per-capita drift (breakeven shown on Forecast tab). Carried only as the sell-side sensitivity. |  | 
 | DISCOUNTED | Whitlock (retired consultant) HPAI "NZ next" commentary |  |  |  |  |  | Contradicts WOAH self-declaration (single Otago property, stamped out, HPAI-free from 24 Apr 2025). Per Vivian Slack 7 May: do not anchor anything on Whitlock; WOAH is ground truth. H7N6 modelled as FY25 one-off cost overlay (3-5%), not structural. |  | 
J.  REFRESH GUIDE  (what to update as diligence lands - the workbook is a living document) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - Audited Aurora financials + FY24 adjusted-EBITDA bridge (data room) -> rows F: arv/aeb/avl; re-run share triangulation on Historical tab. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - Consent lodgement evidence (Selwyn / Waikato registers + direct management question) -> Transition tab timeline block resolves; update P(on-time) row. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - Audited top-10 customer breakdown incl. FSNI / FSSI split -> customer-concentration input (60-70% directional only today). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - Calthorpe-style quarterly flock / mix re-read or 2027 census refresh -> flock + system-mix rows (s.D). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - RetailIQ scan data Q2-2026 onward -> shelf prices, tier mix, elasticities (s.E); re-check FR premium realisation vs the 18-14-12 path. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - Halberd Macro Strategy quarterly FX update -> s.B (do not source FX externally). |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - Equipment-order confirmation (Big Dutchman tranche) + electricity re-tariff terms -> Transition timeline + cost sensitivities. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Historical_Sizing

NZ SHELL-EGG MARKET - HISTORICAL SIZING (FY2023 - FY2025) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Two independent builds per Halberd standards s.2.1: TOP-DOWN (retail lens) and BOTTOM-UP (production lens), reconciled - the gap is surfaced and explained, not normalised away. USD headline / NZD side-by-side. All inputs live on the Assumptions tab (green = cross-tab reference). Legend: Assumptions tab. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
HEADLINE OUTPUTS |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | FY24 retail-channel market size (top-down) |  |  | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$23 | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$20 |  |  | 
 | Producer-side market size, current-era central (bottom-up) |  |  | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$44*'Assumptions'!$D$19 | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$44 | FY26-era central (FX @ FY26) |  | 
 | Structural reconciliation gap (bottom-up vs top-down) |  |  | ='Historical_Sizing'!$F$45 |  | Structural - foodservice + industrial + own-use/institutional |  | 
 | Aurora volume share - working anchor (bottom-up basis) |  |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 |  | vs ~22-23% retail-channel share (lens difference) |  | 
 | Aurora FY24A revenue |  |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$126*'Assumptions'!$D$17 | ='Assumptions'!$D$126 |  |  | 
1.  TOP-DOWN - RETAIL LENS  (population x per-capita x average shelf price, backed to wholesale by the markup factor - the Antipodean / deal-team method) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |  |  | Source / notes
 | NZ population | M people | ='Assumptions'!$D$29/(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30) | ='Assumptions'!$D$29 | ='Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30) |  |  | Treasury baseline 5.22M FY24, +0.9% pa (Assumptions C)
 | Per-capita consumption | eggs/person/yr | ='Assumptions'!$D$31 | ='Assumptions'!$D$32 | ='Assumptions'!$D$33 |  |  | ACII Wave 11 actuals (FY23 = deal-team estimate)
 | Total consumption | B eggs | =D13*D14/1000 | =E13*E14/1000 | =F13*F14/1000 |  |  | 
 | Total consumption | M dozen | =D15*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =E15*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =F15*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 |  |  | 
 | Average retail shelf price (pack-weighted) | NZ$/dozen | ='Assumptions'!$D$89 | ='Assumptions'!$D$90 | ='Assumptions'!$D$91 |  |  | Calibration inputs - FY24 reproduces the NZ$455M anchor; refresh from scan data
 | Retail shelf value (GMV) at retail pricing | NZ$M | =D16*D17 | =E16*E17 | =F16*F17 |  |  | All consumption volume priced at retail shelf (method scope - see reconciliation)
 | Shelf-over-gate markup factor | x | ='Assumptions'!$D$88 | ='Assumptions'!$D$88 | ='Assumptions'!$D$88 |  |  | Divide by 1.33-1.54; never subtract a flat % (standards s.2.3)
 | TOP-DOWN retail market size (wholesale-equivalent) | NZ$M | =D18/D19 | =E18/E19 | =F18/F19 |  |  | FY24 ~NZ$455M = Antipodean Agri Research published top-down
 |   growth YoY | % |  | =E20/D20-1 | =F20/E20-1 |  |  | Contested: Antipodean tracks revenue ~-0.7% pa 2025-26 (production-volume-led) vs Marsden "revenue growing modestly on mix" - surfaced, not resolved; price path is a calibration
 | NZD/USD (FY-aligned) | USD/NZD | ='Assumptions'!$D$16 | ='Assumptions'!$D$17 | ='Assumptions'!$D$18 |  |  | halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx
 | TOP-DOWN retail market size | US$M | =D20*D22 | =E20*E22 | =F20*F22 |  |  | USD headline per firm convention
2.  BOTTOM-UP - PRODUCTION LENS  (national flock x lay rate x utilisation x blended producer gate - the Calthorpe method) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |  |  | Source / notes
 | National layer flock (insider-consistent estimates) | M hens | ='Assumptions'!$D$46 | ='Assumptions'!$D$47 | ='Assumptions'!$D$48 |  |  | Deal-team interpolation: census 3.45M (Dec-22) -> insider 3.75M (FY26); official MPI 3.4-3.5M is stale
 | Eggs per layer per year | eggs | ='Assumptions'!$D$50 | ='Assumptions'!$D$50 | ='Assumptions'!$D$50 |  |  | Calthorpe Part 3 / EPF 290-305
 | Utilisation | % | ='Assumptions'!$D$51 | ='Assumptions'!$D$51 | ='Assumptions'!$D$51 |  |  | 
 | Production | B eggs | =D27*D28*D29/1000 | =E27*E28*E29/1000 | =F27*F28*F29/1000 |  |  | 
 | Production | M dozen | =D30*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =E30*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =F30*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 |  |  | 
 | Blended producer gate - all channels | NZ$/dozen | ='Assumptions'!$D$109 | ='Assumptions'!$D$109 | ='Assumptions'!$D$109 |  |  | Calibration anchor NZ$6.40 (implied by insider NZ$535-545M); Aurora realised NZ$6.46/doz corroborates
 | BOTTOM-UP producer-side market size | NZ$M | =D31*D32 | =E31*E32 | =F31*F32 |  |  | 
 |   growth YoY | % |  | =E33/D33-1 | =F33/E33-1 |  |  | 
 | NZD/USD (FY-aligned) | USD/NZD | ='Assumptions'!$D$16 | ='Assumptions'!$D$17 | ='Assumptions'!$D$18 |  |  | 
 | BOTTOM-UP producer-side market size | US$M | =D33*D35 | =E33*E35 | =F33*F35 |  |  | 
 | Cross-check: channel-gate build (Part 4 transaction-price evidence) | NZ$/dozen |  | =('Assumptions'!$D$97*'Assumptions'!$D$103+'Assumptions'!$D$98*'Assumptions'!$D$102+'Assumptions'!$D$99*'Assumptions'!$D$101+'Assumptions'!$D$100*'Assumptions'!$D$108)*'Assumptions'!$D$83+'Assumptions'!$D$84*'Assumptions'!$D$104+'Assumptions'!$D$85*'Assumptions'!$D$105+'Assumptions'!$D$86*'Assumptions'!$D$106+'Assumptions'!$D$87*'Assumptions'!$D$107 |  |  |  | Retail gate weighted by scan tier mix, then channel-weighted. Lands ~NZ$5.1/doz.
 | Cross-check: implied producer revenue at channel-gate build (FY24 volume) | NZ$M |  | =E31*'Historical_Sizing'!$E$38 |  |  |  | SPREAD SURFACED: channel-gate evidence supports ~NZ$425-440M vs the NZ$6.40-blend headline ~NZ$533M (FY24). Working anchor stays the insider blend per Slack 8 May; the ~20% pricing spread is a named confirmatory question (blended realisation incl. premium/direct/PL mix). Levels scale linearly with the blend input; growth and scenario deltas are robust.
3.  TOP-DOWN vs BOTTOM-UP RECONCILIATION  (standards s.2.1: state preferred method per question; explain the structural gap; do NOT normalise it away) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Canonical anchor comparison (as run by the deal team + Calthorpe Part 3): |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Top-down, FY24 (retail lens) | NZ$M |  | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$20 |  |  |  | Pop 5.22M x 229-227 eggs x avg shelf / 1.435 markup = ~NZ$455M (Antipodean Q3-2025 published the same build)
 | Bottom-up, current-era central (production lens) | NZ$M |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41*1000*'Assumptions'!$D$109/1000 |  |  |  | 3.75M hens x 300 eggs x 90% / 12 x NZ$6.40 = ~NZ$540M (Calthorpe Part 3 [00:01:54]: "NZ$535-545M")
 | Reconciliation gap (bottom-up over top-down) | NZ$M / % |  | =E44-E43 | =E44/E43-1 |  |  | Structural ~19% gap - "the answer to what is missing from a retail-only sizing" (Calthorpe Part 3 [00:05:22])
 | Gap closure - value flowing through channels invisible to retail pricing (sums the channel mix back per Calthorpe Part 3 [00:06:14]): |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Channel | % natl volume | M dozen | Gate NZ$/doz | Value NZ$M |  |  | 
 | Foodservice (Bidfood / Gilmours wholesale) | ='Assumptions'!$D$84 | ='Assumptions'!$D$84*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$104 | =D49*E49 |  |  | 
 | Industrial / processor (bakeries, mayo, breakers) | ='Assumptions'!$D$85 | ='Assumptions'!$D$85*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$105 | =D50*E50 |  |  | 
 | Own-use / institutional (schools, prisons, hospitals, defence) | ='Assumptions'!$D$86 | ='Assumptions'!$D$86*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$106 | =D51*E51 |  |  | 
 | Total non-retail-priced value (ex direct) | ='Assumptions'!$D$84+'Assumptions'!$D$85+'Assumptions'!$D$86 | =SUM(D49:D51) |  | =SUM(F49:F51) |  |  | 
 | Residual vs observed gap |  |  |  | =E45-F52 |  |  | Residual ~NZ$0.2M - the gap closes on the three structural channels. Direct/DTC (2.5%) prices at/above retail so it does not widen the gap; a residual is acceptable and informative (standards s.2.1).
 | Which method for which question (standards s.2.1(c)): |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - VOLUME SHARES: use BOTTOM-UP. Aurora = 18% of national volume (Calthorpe central). |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - RETAIL-CHANNEL SHARES: use TOP-DOWN. Aurora = ~22-23% of retail-channel volume - looks bigger through the retail lens because its 72% retail mix exceeds the ~70% industry average; the reverse holds for industrial-heavy Heyden. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | - Structural sources of the gap: (1) channel scope - foodservice / industrial / own-use never touch a retail price; (2) flock vintage - insider 3.75M vs official census 3.4-3.5M (+~7%); (3) price lens - producer blended gate NZ$6.40 vs retail-wholesale-equivalent ~NZ$4.61 (=6.61/1.435). |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Definitional spread also surfaced: consumption volume vs production volume |  | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$16 | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$31 | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$16/'Historical_Sizing'!$E$31-1 |  |  | Consumption-implied ~99M doz (FY24) runs ~19% above flock-implied shell production ~83M doz: per-capita 229 includes egg-product equivalents (liquid/processed, partly imported) and the registered flock under-counts. CONFIRMATORY ITEM - do not force the two to match.
4.  PRODUCER ROSTER - BOTTOM-UP BY PRODUCER (FY26 current-era central; Aurora is ADDITIVE to the public roster - tracked producers are not shrunk to fit) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Producer | % natl volume | Hens (M, share-implied) | Volume (M doz) | Est. FY24 revenue (NZ$M) | Cage-free % of flock |  | Shares: Calthorpe Part 2 central (8 May 2026). Revenue: Hartley Pearce Exhibit 1 (28 Mar 2026); Aurora = IM FY24A. Cage-free %: Calthorpe Part 2 [00:32:10].
 | Mainland Poultry (PEP) | ='Assumptions'!$D$58 | ='Assumptions'!$D$58*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$58*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$65 | ='Assumptions'!$D$71 |  | 
 | AURORA EGGS (additive; privately held) | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 | ='Assumptions'!$D$59*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$59*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$126 | ='Assumptions'!$D$76 |  | 
 | Heyden Farms | ='Assumptions'!$D$60 | ='Assumptions'!$D$60*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$60*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$66 | ='Assumptions'!$D$72 |  | 
 | Better Eggs | ='Assumptions'!$D$61 | ='Assumptions'!$D$61*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$61*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$67 | ='Assumptions'!$D$73 |  | 
 | Zeagold Foods (Mainland/PEP eggs division) | ='Assumptions'!$D$62 | ='Assumptions'!$D$62*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$62*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$68 | ='Assumptions'!$D$74 |  | 
 | Henergy Cage Free | ='Assumptions'!$D$63 | ='Assumptions'!$D$63*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$63*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$69 | ='Assumptions'!$D$75 |  | 
 | Long tail / specialty (>30 operators) | ='Assumptions'!$D$64 | ='Assumptions'!$D$64*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$64*('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41) | ='Assumptions'!$D$70 |  |  | HP est. NZ$280-330M - premium/direct-skewed pricing in the specialty cohort; mid carried.
 | Total - national | =SUM(C63:C69) | =SUM(D63:D69) | =SUM(E63:E69) |  |  |  | Sums to 100% / 3.75M hens / ~84.4M doz - roster is MECE with Aurora layered on top of the tracked five.
 | Top-3 combined share (Mainland + Aurora + Heyden) | ='Assumptions'!$D$58+'Assumptions'!$D$59+'Assumptions'!$D$60 |  |  |  |  |  | Antipodean "top 3-4 ~50-55%" refers to the PUBLIC roster (excl. Aurora): Mainland+Heyden+Better+Zeagold = 56% - consistent once Aurora is added on top.
 | HHI - named six producers (long tail excluded) | =('Assumptions'!$D$58^2+'Assumptions'!$D$59^2+'Assumptions'!$D$60^2+'Assumptions'!$D$61^2+'Assumptions'!$D$62^2+'Assumptions'!$D$63^2)*10000 |  |  |  |  |  | ~1,390 points - moderately concentrated; Phase 2 capital pressure concentrates it further (6-10 long-tail exits expected by FY28).
5.  AURORA EGGS - REPORTED HISTORICALS & SHARE TRIANGULATION  (management accounts via IM draft; unaudited) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A |  |  | Source / notes
 | Revenue | NZ$M | ='Assumptions'!$D$124 | ='Assumptions'!$D$125 | ='Assumptions'!$D$126 |  |  | IM s.2
 | NZD/USD (FY-aligned) | USD/NZD | ='Assumptions'!$D$15 | ='Assumptions'!$D$16 | ='Assumptions'!$D$17 |  |  | 
 | Revenue | US$M | =D76*D77 | =E76*E77 | =F76*F77 |  |  | USD headline
 | EBITDA (reported) | NZ$M | ='Assumptions'!$D$127 | ='Assumptions'!$D$128 | ='Assumptions'!$D$129 |  |  | 
 | EBITDA (reported) | US$M | =D79*D77 | =E79*E77 | =F79*F77 |  |  | 
 | EBITDA margin | % | =D79/D76 | =E79/E76 | =F79/F76 |  |  | 12.8% FY24 = high side of industry 8-15% (cluster 10-12%, Pacific Agri)
 | Volume | M dozen | ='Assumptions'!$D$131 | ='Assumptions'!$D$132 | ='Assumptions'!$D$133 |  |  | 
 | Realised price | NZ$/dozen | =D76/D82 | =E76/E82 | =F76/F82 |  |  | FY24 NZ$6.46/doz ~= the NZ$6.40 market blended gate - corroborates the bottom-up calibration
 | FY24 "Adjusted" EBITDA (sell-side basis) | NZ$M |  |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$130 |  |  | NZ$12.6M / 14.9% - unaudited addbacks; >13% margins must be examined (Pacific Agri). Model carries reported NZ$10.8M; bridge = confirmatory request.
 | Share triangulation (Aurora is invisible in public coverage - recovered by triangulating): |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Flock-implied share (610k / 3.75M national) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$120/1000000/'Assumptions'!$D$49 |  |  |  |  | Lower bound of the triangle.
 | Volume-implied share (13.1M doz / FY24 production) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$133/'Historical_Sizing'!$E$31 |  |  |  |  | 
 | Insider producer-by-producer estimate (Calthorpe) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 |  |  |  |  | Part 1 range 17-19% -> Part 2 central 18%.
 | WORKING ANCHOR - Aurora volume share |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 |  |  |  |  | Triangulation spread 16-18% is surfaced, not averaged: working anchor 18% per deal-team lock (Slack 8 May). Audited volumes in confirmatory resolve it.
 | Aurora realisation factor vs market blend (FY24) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$126/('Historical_Sizing'!$E$33*'Assumptions'!$D$59) |  |  |  |  | Aurora FY24 revenue / (bottom-up FY24 x 18% share) = ~0.88 - carries the share-vs-volume spread + Aurora 50/50 brand/PL mix into the forecast; refresh on audited volumes.

## 工作表：Forecast_FY26_30

NZ SHELL-EGG MARKET - FIVE-YEAR FORECAST (FY2026 - FY2030) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Demand = population x per-capita with dietary-mix drift (standards s.2.2 - flat per-capita not permitted as central). Market revenue priced bottom-up (production lens) under three named transition scenarios with the price response modelled (s.3.1). USD headline / NZD side-by-side; FX by year from the house forecast. All inputs live on Assumptions (green = cross-tab). No recommendation - scenario surface for IC. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
HEADLINE OUTPUTS (central case = S1 Managed Conversion) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Market revenue FY2030 - central (S1) |  |  | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$43 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40 |  |  | 
 | Market revenue FY2030 - scenario span (S3 low / S2 high) |  |  | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$81 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$62 |  |  | 
 | Category volume CAGR FY25-FY30 (consumption) |  |  | =('Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$17/('Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)*'Assumptions'!$D$33*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41/1000))^(1/5)-1 |  |  |  | 
 | Market revenue CAGR FY26-FY30 - central (NZD / USD) |  |  | =('Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$40)^0.25-1 | =('Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$43/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$43)^0.25-1 |  |  | 
 | Aurora FY2030 EBITDA - central (S1, pre-transition-slippage) |  |  | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$89*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$89 |  |  | 
 | FR premium path (central): 18% FY26 -> 14% FY27 -> 12% FY28 (vs 30%+ broker claim - contested). Slippage and cost-side EBITDA stresses: Transition tab. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
1.  DEMAND DRIVERS - CENTRAL  (population x ACII per-capita path; drift = dietary-mix shift + demographic-cuisine compounding) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | Source / notes
 | NZ population | M people | ='Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)^2 | ='Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)^3 | ='Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)^4 | ='Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)^5 | ='Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)^6 | Treasury baseline, +0.9% pa
 | Per-capita consumption - ACII central | eggs/person/yr | ='Assumptions'!$D$34 | ='Assumptions'!$E$34 | ='Assumptions'!$F$34 | ='Assumptions'!$G$34 | ='Assumptions'!$H$34 | ACII Wave 11 Table 3 projection (230->235); supersedes EPF-flat 229 as central per standards s.2.2
 | National consumption | B eggs | =D14*D15/1000 | =E14*E15/1000 | =F14*F15/1000 | =G14*G15/1000 | =H14*H15/1000 | 
 | National consumption | M dozen | =D16*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =E16*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =F16*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =G16*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =H16*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | 
 |   consumption growth YoY | % | =D17/('Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)*'Assumptions'!$D$33*1000/'Assumptions'!$D$41/1000)-1 | =E17/D17-1 | =F17/E17-1 | =G17/F17-1 | =H17/G17-1 | ~+1.3-1.5% pa = population +0.9% + per-capita drift +0.4-0.5% (Vivian / Theo Slack 5 May; ACII)
2.  PRODUCTION VOLUME - CENTRAL  (bottom-up basis; supply tracks demand in the central case) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | Source / notes
 | National production | M dozen | ='Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =D22*(1+E18) | =E22*(1+F18) | =F22*(1+G18) | =G22*(1+H18) | FY26 = 3.75M hens x 300 eggs x 90% /12 = ~84.4M doz; grown at consumption growth (Phase 2 adds birds at lower stocking density - Part 2 [00:26:48]).
3.  THREE NAMED TRANSITION SCENARIOS - PRICED  (driver + consequence + breakeven per standards s.3.1; parameters in Assumptions s.H; breakevens on Transition tab) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | S1  MANAGED CONVERSION  (central) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | DRIVER: consents + DOC + equipment land on schedule; ~95% of colony cohort converted by 31 Dec 2027; long-tail exits redistribute share. CONSEQUENCE: mix shifts colony->barn/FR; FR premium compresses 18->14->12; category value grows on mix uplift. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | Source / notes
 | System mix - colony | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$174 | ='Assumptions'!$E$174 | ='Assumptions'!$F$174 | ='Assumptions'!$G$174 | ='Assumptions'!$H$174 | Assumptions s.H
 | System mix - barn | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$175 | ='Assumptions'!$E$175 | ='Assumptions'!$F$175 | ='Assumptions'!$G$175 | ='Assumptions'!$H$175 | 
 | System mix - free-range | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$176 | ='Assumptions'!$E$176 | ='Assumptions'!$F$176 | ='Assumptions'!$G$176 | ='Assumptions'!$H$176 | 
 |   mix check (must = 100%) | % | =D28+D29+D30 | =E28+E29+E30 | =F28+F29+F30 | =G28+G29+G30 | =H28+H29+H30 | MECE check
 | Colony gate | NZ$/doz | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^0 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^1 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^2 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^3 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^4 | Indexed at commodity-gate inflation
 | Barn gate (incl. scenario adjustment) | NZ$/doz | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^0*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$178) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^1*(1+'Assumptions'!$E$178) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^2*(1+'Assumptions'!$F$178) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^3*(1+'Assumptions'!$G$178) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^4*(1+'Assumptions'!$H$178) | Price response to the supply scenario - NOT held flat (standards s.3.1)
 | FR premium over barn | % | ='Assumptions'!$D$177 | ='Assumptions'!$E$177 | ='Assumptions'!$F$177 | ='Assumptions'!$G$177 | ='Assumptions'!$H$177 | Calthorpe Part 3 trajectory family
 | Free-range gate | NZ$/doz | =D33*(1+D34) | =E33*(1+E34) | =F33*(1+F34) | =G33*(1+G34) | =H33*(1+H34) | 
 | Mix-weighted system gate | NZ$/doz | =D28*D32+D29*D33+D30*D35 | =E28*E32+E29*E33+E30*E35 | =F28*F32+F29*F33+F30*F35 | =G28*G32+G29*G33+G30*G35 | =H28*H32+H29*H33+H30*H35 | 
 | Calibration factor K (premium-tier / direct / channel uplift) | x | ='Assumptions'!$D$109/D36 |  |  |  |  | K = FY26 blended gate NZ$6.40 / FY26 mix-weighted system gate; holds constant across years and scenarios. Carries the blended-gate calibration caveat (Assumptions).
 | Blended producer gate (all channels) | NZ$/doz | =D36*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =E36*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =F36*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =G36*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =H36*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | Mix-weighted gate x K
 | Volume sold (incl. supply adjustment) | M dozen | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$179) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$E$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$E$179) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$F$179) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$G$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$G$179) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$H$179) | 
 | MARKET REVENUE (producer-side) | NZ$M | =D39*D38 | =E39*E38 | =F39*F38 | =G39*G38 | =H39*H38 | 
 |   growth YoY | % |  | =E40/D40-1 | =F40/E40-1 | =G40/F40-1 | =H40/G40-1 | Mix-driven value uplift as the colony (cheapest) tier exits retail
 | NZD/USD (house forecast by year) | USD/NZD | ='Assumptions'!$D$19 | ='Assumptions'!$D$20 | ='Assumptions'!$D$21 | ='Assumptions'!$D$22 | ='Assumptions'!$D$23 | 
 | MARKET REVENUE (producer-side) | US$M | =D40*D42 | =E40*E42 | =F40*F42 | =G40*G42 | =H40*H42 | USD headline
 | S2  CAPACITY GAP  (supply-tight; imports partially backfill) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | DRIVER: DOC waitlists re-tighten to 6-9 mo, notified consents run 9-12 mo, equipment queue binds; only ~75% converted at deadline. CONSEQUENCE: 12-18 months of elevated cage-free wholesale (+8% FY27-28), supply -3/-4%, AU barn imports at the value end; premium holds ~14.5%; stranded colony volume hits laggards (Aurora block, Transition tab). |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | Source / notes
 | System mix - colony | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$180 | ='Assumptions'!$E$180 | ='Assumptions'!$F$180 | ='Assumptions'!$G$180 | ='Assumptions'!$H$180 | Assumptions s.H
 | System mix - barn | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$181 | ='Assumptions'!$E$181 | ='Assumptions'!$F$181 | ='Assumptions'!$G$181 | ='Assumptions'!$H$181 | 
 | System mix - free-range | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$182 | ='Assumptions'!$E$182 | ='Assumptions'!$F$182 | ='Assumptions'!$G$182 | ='Assumptions'!$H$182 | 
 |   mix check (must = 100%) | % | =D48+D49+D50 | =E48+E49+E50 | =F48+F49+F50 | =G48+G49+G50 | =H48+H49+H50 | MECE check
 | Colony gate | NZ$/doz | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^0 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^1 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^2 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^3 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^4 | Indexed at commodity-gate inflation
 | Barn gate (incl. scenario adjustment) | NZ$/doz | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^0*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$184) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^1*(1+'Assumptions'!$E$184) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^2*(1+'Assumptions'!$F$184) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^3*(1+'Assumptions'!$G$184) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^4*(1+'Assumptions'!$H$184) | Price response to the supply scenario - NOT held flat (standards s.3.1)
 | FR premium over barn | % | ='Assumptions'!$D$183 | ='Assumptions'!$E$183 | ='Assumptions'!$F$183 | ='Assumptions'!$G$183 | ='Assumptions'!$H$183 | Calthorpe Part 3 trajectory family
 | Free-range gate | NZ$/doz | =D53*(1+D54) | =E53*(1+E54) | =F53*(1+F54) | =G53*(1+G54) | =H53*(1+H54) | 
 | Mix-weighted system gate | NZ$/doz | =D48*D52+D49*D53+D50*D55 | =E48*E52+E49*E53+E50*E55 | =F48*F52+F49*F53+F50*F55 | =G48*G52+G49*G53+G50*G55 | =H48*H52+H49*H53+H50*H55 | 
 | Blended producer gate (all channels) | NZ$/doz | =D56*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =E56*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =F56*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =G56*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =H56*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | Mix-weighted gate x K
 | Volume sold (incl. supply adjustment) | M dozen | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$185) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$E$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$E$185) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$F$185) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$G$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$G$185) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$H$185) | 
 | MARKET REVENUE (producer-side) | NZ$M | =D58*D57 | =E58*E57 | =F58*F57 | =G58*G57 | =H58*H57 | 
 |   growth YoY | % |  | =E59/D59-1 | =F59/E59-1 | =G59/F59-1 | =H59/G59-1 | Mix-driven value uplift as the colony (cheapest) tier exits retail
 | NZD/USD (house forecast by year) | USD/NZD | ='Assumptions'!$D$19 | ='Assumptions'!$D$20 | ='Assumptions'!$D$21 | ='Assumptions'!$D$22 | ='Assumptions'!$D$23 | 
 | MARKET REVENUE (producer-side) | US$M | =D59*D61 | =E59*E61 | =F59*F61 | =G59*G61 | =H59*H61 | USD headline
 | S3  PREMIUM COLLAPSE  (oversupply) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | DRIVER: conversion overshoots into barn just as cost-of-living trade-down peaks (20-25% of FR buyers flip; barn<->FR cross-elasticity 0.62-0.71). CONSEQUENCE: FR premium falls to ~9% by FY28, barn gate -4%; category revenue compresses vs central. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | Source / notes
 | System mix - colony | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$186 | ='Assumptions'!$E$186 | ='Assumptions'!$F$186 | ='Assumptions'!$G$186 | ='Assumptions'!$H$186 | Assumptions s.H
 | System mix - barn | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$187 | ='Assumptions'!$E$187 | ='Assumptions'!$F$187 | ='Assumptions'!$G$187 | ='Assumptions'!$H$187 | 
 | System mix - free-range | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$188 | ='Assumptions'!$E$188 | ='Assumptions'!$F$188 | ='Assumptions'!$G$188 | ='Assumptions'!$H$188 | 
 |   mix check (must = 100%) | % | =D67+D68+D69 | =E67+E68+E69 | =F67+F68+F69 | =G67+G68+G69 | =H67+H68+H69 | MECE check
 | Colony gate | NZ$/doz | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^0 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^1 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^2 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^3 | ='Assumptions'!$D$103*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^4 | Indexed at commodity-gate inflation
 | Barn gate (incl. scenario adjustment) | NZ$/doz | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^0*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$190) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^1*(1+'Assumptions'!$E$190) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^2*(1+'Assumptions'!$F$190) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^3*(1+'Assumptions'!$G$190) | ='Assumptions'!$D$102*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$110)^4*(1+'Assumptions'!$H$190) | Price response to the supply scenario - NOT held flat (standards s.3.1)
 | FR premium over barn | % | ='Assumptions'!$D$189 | ='Assumptions'!$E$189 | ='Assumptions'!$F$189 | ='Assumptions'!$G$189 | ='Assumptions'!$H$189 | Calthorpe Part 3 trajectory family
 | Free-range gate | NZ$/doz | =D72*(1+D73) | =E72*(1+E73) | =F72*(1+F73) | =G72*(1+G73) | =H72*(1+H73) | 
 | Mix-weighted system gate | NZ$/doz | =D67*D71+D68*D72+D69*D74 | =E67*E71+E68*E72+E69*E74 | =F67*F71+F68*F72+F69*F74 | =G67*G71+G68*G72+G69*G74 | =H67*H71+H68*H72+H69*H74 | 
 | Blended producer gate (all channels) | NZ$/doz | =D75*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =E75*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =F75*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =G75*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | =H75*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37 | Mix-weighted gate x K
 | Volume sold (incl. supply adjustment) | M dozen | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$191) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$E$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$E$191) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$F$191) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$G$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$G$191) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$22*(1+'Assumptions'!$H$191) | 
 | MARKET REVENUE (producer-side) | NZ$M | =D77*D76 | =E77*E76 | =F77*F76 | =G77*G76 | =H77*H76 | 
 |   growth YoY | % |  | =E78/D78-1 | =F78/E78-1 | =G78/F78-1 | =H78/G78-1 | Mix-driven value uplift as the colony (cheapest) tier exits retail
 | NZD/USD (house forecast by year) | USD/NZD | ='Assumptions'!$D$19 | ='Assumptions'!$D$20 | ='Assumptions'!$D$21 | ='Assumptions'!$D$22 | ='Assumptions'!$D$23 | 
 | MARKET REVENUE (producer-side) | US$M | =D78*D80 | =E78*E80 | =F78*F80 | =G78*G80 | =H78*H80 | USD headline
4.  AURORA OVERLAY - CENTRAL CASE (S1)  (preliminary outside-in; refresh on audited financials) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | Source / notes
 | Aurora volume share (working anchor, held flat) | % | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 | ='Assumptions'!$D$59 | Share-capture upside shown below as the broker-claim sensitivity, not central
 | Realisation factor vs market blend | x | ='Historical_Sizing'!$D$91 | ='Historical_Sizing'!$D$91 | ='Historical_Sizing'!$D$91 | ='Historical_Sizing'!$D$91 | ='Historical_Sizing'!$D$91 | From Historical tab (FY24 calibration ~0.88; carries PL exposure + share/volume spread)
 | Aurora revenue - central | NZ$M | =D40*D85*D86 | =E40*E85*E86 | =F40*F85*F86 | =G40*G85*G86 | =H40*H85*H86 | 
 | Aurora EBITDA margin path - central | % | ='Assumptions'!$D$152 | ='Assumptions'!$E$152 | ='Assumptions'!$F$152 | ='Assumptions'!$G$152 | ='Assumptions'!$H$152 | 12.8% FY24A less premium-compression drag (30% FR book; partial pass-through) - deal-team estimate
 | Aurora EBITDA - central | NZ$M | =D87*D88 | =E87*E88 | =F87*F88 | =G87*G88 | =H87*H88 | 
 | Aurora EBITDA - central | US$M | =D89*'Assumptions'!$D$19 | =E89*'Assumptions'!$D$20 | =F89*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =G89*'Assumptions'!$D$22 | =H89*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | USD headline
 | Broker / IM revenue trajectory (+7% pa) - for reference | NZ$M | ='Assumptions'!$D$126*1.07^2 | ='Assumptions'!$D$126*1.07^3 | ='Assumptions'!$D$126*1.07^4 | ='Assumptions'!$D$126*1.07^5 | ='Assumptions'!$D$126*1.07^6 | IM s.3 forecast
 |   model central vs IM trajectory | % | =D87/D91-1 | =E87/E91-1 | =F87/F91-1 | =G87/G91-1 | =H87/H91-1 | Model central runs ~11-17% below the IM line - the IM volume claims are not supported by ACII / expert evidence (see supersession log)
 | Share-capture upside (broker claim, phased +0.5pp/yr) | NZ$M | =D40*('Assumptions'!$D$59+'Assumptions'!$D$153*1/5)*D86-D87 | =E40*('Assumptions'!$D$59+'Assumptions'!$D$153*2/5)*E86-E87 | =F40*('Assumptions'!$D$59+'Assumptions'!$D$153*3/5)*F86-F87 | =G40*('Assumptions'!$D$59+'Assumptions'!$D$153*4/5)*G86-G87 | =H40*('Assumptions'!$D$59+'Assumptions'!$D$153*5/5)*H86-H87 | Incremental revenue if Aurora captures +2-3pp from long-tail exits by FY30 (IM s.3(c)) - carried as sensitivity only
5.  RETAIL-LENS CONTINUITY (top-down forward - for retail-channel share work only) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Line | Unit | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | Source / notes
 | Top-down retail market size (wholesale-equivalent) | NZ$M | =D17*'Assumptions'!$D$91*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$92)^1/'Assumptions'!$D$88 | =E17*'Assumptions'!$D$91*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$92)^2/'Assumptions'!$D$88 | =F17*'Assumptions'!$D$91*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$92)^3/'Assumptions'!$D$88 | =G17*'Assumptions'!$D$91*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$92)^4/'Assumptions'!$D$88 | =H17*'Assumptions'!$D$91*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$92)^5/'Assumptions'!$D$88 | Consumption x shelf path / markup; use for retail-channel shares (standards s.2.1(c)) - NOT additive to the bottom-up view
 | Top-down retail market size | US$M | =D97*'Assumptions'!$D$19 | =E97*'Assumptions'!$D$20 | =F97*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =G97*'Assumptions'!$D$22 | =H97*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | 
6.  CONSUMER-DEMAND SENSITIVITY  (per-capita path / plant-based displacement / cost-of-living trade-down; 3 cases + breakeven each) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | 6a.  Per-capita consumption path (FY30 outputs at S1 pricing) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Case |  | Per-capita FY30 | Consumption FY30 (M doz) | Market rev FY30 (NZ$M) | Market rev FY30 (US$M) | vs central | 
 | Conservative - EPF flat (lagging stats page) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$35 | =D103*'Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)^6/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =E103/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$17*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40 | =F103*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | =F103/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40-1 | EPF 229 held flat - the association page lags 2-4 years; conservative bound
 | CENTRAL - ACII Wave 11 projection |  | ='Assumptions'!$H$34 | =D104*'Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)^6/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =E104/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$17*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40 | =F104*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | =F104/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40-1 | Dietary-mix drift +0.4-0.5% pa (flexitarian 21.4% and rising; eggs net beneficiary)
 | Broker / IM claim (+1.5-2.0% pa) - NOT SUPPORTED |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$33*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$36)^5 | =D105*'Assumptions'!$D$29*(1+'Assumptions'!$D$30)^6/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =E105/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$17*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40 | =F105*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | =F105/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40-1 | IM s.3(b); ~4-5x the survey-supported drift
 | Breakeven - per-capita growth required to validate the broker +7% pa revenue case |  | =(1.07/(('Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$38/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$38)^0.25))-1-'Assumptions'!$D$30 |  |  |  |  | Given the central price/mix path, the +7% pa revenue trajectory needs ~+2.2% pa per-capita growth - ~5x the ACII-supported +0.4-0.5%. The broker demand case fails this breakeven; surfaced for IC.
 | 6b.  Plant-based egg substitution (phased FY28-30; trigger = chilled plant-based SKU on the egg shelf at a major) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Case |  | Displacement by FY30 | Volume FY30 (M doz) | Market rev FY30 (NZ$M) | US$M | vs central | 
 | No displacement (current state: <1% of category) |  | =0 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$39*(1-D110) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40*(1-D110) | =F110*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | =-D110 | Plant-based <1% of NZ egg-equivalent demand today; trial-to-regular conversion ~1%
 | ACII low (-1.5% of volume by FY30) |  | ='Assumptions'!$E$39 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$39*(1-D111) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40*(1-D111) | =F111*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | =-D111 | NZ lags AU assortment by 18-30 months
 | ACII high (-2.5% of volume by FY30) |  | ='Assumptions'!$F$39 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$39*(1-D112) | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$40*(1-D112) | =F112*'Assumptions'!$D$23 | =-D112 | Watch-signal risk case; concentrated in the flexitarian cohort
 | Breakeven / trigger |  | Assortment event |  |  |  |  | Displacement stays near zero until Foodstuffs or Woolworths NZ ranges a chilled plant-based egg on the shell-egg shelf (Calthorpe Part 5 [00:06:02]); NZ-Made provenance (#2 purchase driver) partially shields the category. Monitor quarterly.
 | 6c.  Cost-of-living trade-down (FR -> barn mix stress at FY28, S1 pricing) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Stress: 5pp of system volume shifts FR -> barn in FY28 (revenue effect) |  | =-0.05*('Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33*(1+'Assumptions'!$F$177)-'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33)*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$39 |  |  |  |  | NZ$M revenue reduction: 21% of FR buyers actually switch under a NZ$30/wk budget squeeze (ACII addendum s.2) - modelled as a partial-incidence 5pp mix stress; mix-down also drags the achievable premium (reinforces S3).
 |   as % of FY28 central market revenue |  | =D116/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$40 |  |  |  |  | Modest at market level (~-0.6%) but concentrated on FR-long producers; Aurora FR book = 30% of flock at the cost-of-living-exposed commodity tier.

## 工作表：Transition_Scenarios

CAGE-BAN TRANSITION - COLONY COHORT SCENARIOS TO END-2027 & SENSITIVITIES |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
The end-2027 deadline is FIXED - a retailer-led commitment by Foodstuffs (NI+SI) and Woolworths NZ covering ~70-80% of grocery volume, not a regulation; it cannot slip without both groups publicly walking back (Vivian, Slack 4 May). Scenarios therefore vary HOW the colony cohort moves, never the date. No grace period: colony product is de-listed from packaged shelves on 1 Jan 2028 (Calthorpe Part 3 [00:30:38]). USD headline / NZD side-by-side. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
HEADLINE OUTPUTS |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Colony cohort - hens that must move by end-2027 |  |  | ='Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 | ='Assumptions'!$D$56 |  |  | 
 | Aurora colony exposure |  |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$120*'Assumptions'!$D$121/1000 | ='Assumptions'!$D$120*'Assumptions'!$D$121/('Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$56)/1000000 |  |  | 
 | Aurora conversion capex - expert-anchored (vs broker NZ$8-10M) |  |  | ='Transition_Scenarios'!$D$47*'Assumptions'!$E$141/1000000 | ='Transition_Scenarios'!$D$47*'Assumptions'!$F$141/1000000 |  |  | 
 | Aurora EBITDA-at-risk per year of slippage |  |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$149 | ='Assumptions'!$D$149*'Assumptions'!$D$21 |  |  | 
 | FY28 market revenue span across scenarios (S3 low / S2 high) |  |  | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$81 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$62 |  |  | 
 | Deadline fixed at 31 Dec 2027 (retailer pledge); 19 months out at model date. Breakeven lodgement window has already closed on a start-now basis (T3). |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
A.  THE COLONY COHORT - WHO MUST MOVE BY END-2027 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | National layer flock, FY26 central | M hens | ='Assumptions'!$D$49 |  |  |  |  | 
 | Colony share of flock, FY26 current-era | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$D$56 |  |  |  |  | 40% current-era (Calthorpe P1) vs 33% stale Dec-2022 census - supersession log on Assumptions.
 | COLONY COHORT - hens that must convert or exit | M hens | ='Assumptions'!$D$49*'Assumptions'!$D$56 |  |  |  |  | ~1.5M hens. Phase 2 queues ~2.5 years of conversion demand into an 18-month window (Part 2 [00:05:18]).
 | Colony production at risk of de-listing | M dozen / NZ$M | ='Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15*'Assumptions'!$D$50*'Assumptions'!$D$51/'Assumptions'!$D$41 | =D16*'Assumptions'!$D$103 |  |  |  | ~33.8M doz; ~NZ$115M at colony gate - the volume that must re-house into barn/FR economics (or exit).
 | Colony exposure by producer (FY26): |  | Hens (M) | Cage-free % | Colony hens (M) | % of cohort |  | 
 | Mainland Poultry (PEP) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$58*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$71 | =D19*(1-E19) | =F19/'Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 |  | 
 | AURORA EGGS |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$120/1000000 | ='Assumptions'!$D$76 | =D20*(1-E20) | =F20/'Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 |  | Actual flock 610k used (broker); share-implied would be 675k - triangulation spread surfaced on Historical tab. Largest single colony block of the named six.
 | Heyden Farms |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$60*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$72 | =D21*(1-E21) | =F21/'Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 |  | 
 | Better Eggs |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$61*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$73 | =D22*(1-E22) | =F22/'Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 |  | 
 | Zeagold Foods |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$62*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$74 | =D23*(1-E23) | =F23/'Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 |  | 
 | Henergy Cage Free |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$63*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | ='Assumptions'!$D$75 | =D24*(1-E24) | =F24/'Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 |  | 
 | Long tail / specialty (residual) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$64*'Assumptions'!$D$49 | =1-F25/D25 | ='Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15-SUM(F19:F24) | =F25/'Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 |  | Residual ~0.65M colony hens across ~25-30 sub-50k operators (~25k avg - matches Marsden / Part 2 exactly) + specialty FR cohort 150-200k birds. Capex does not pencil sub-50k: 6-10 exits expected by FY28 -> share redistributes to converters.
 | Total colony cohort |  |  |  | =SUM(F19:F25) | =F26/'Transition_Scenarios'!$D$15 |  | 
B.  THREE NAMED SCENARIOS - SUMMARY, CONSEQUENCES & BREAKEVEN BOUNDARIES  (full pricing mechanics on Forecast tab s.3) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Metric |  | S1 MANAGED CONVERSION (central) | S2 CAPACITY GAP | S3 PREMIUM COLLAPSE |  |  | Scenario architecture per Vivian (Slack 4 May): deadline fixed; the colony cohort path varies.
 | Driver (mechanic that differs) |  | Consents, DOC supply and equipment land on schedule; long-tail exits orderly. | DOC waitlists re-tighten to 6-9 mo; notified consents 9-12 mo; equipment queue binds; conversions lag the deadline. | Conversion overshoots into barn; cost-of-living trade-down (21% of FR buyers switch) lands at the same time. |  |  | 
 | Colony cohort converted by 31 Dec 2027 | % cohort | ='Assumptions'!$D$192 | ='Assumptions'!$D$193 | ='Assumptions'!$D$194 |  |  | 
 | Colony share of flock, FY28 | % flock | ='Assumptions'!$F$174 | ='Assumptions'!$F$180 | ='Assumptions'!$F$186 |  |  | 
 | FR premium over barn, FY28 | % | ='Assumptions'!$F$177 | ='Assumptions'!$F$183 | ='Assumptions'!$F$189 |  |  | 
 | Cage-free gate adjustment, FY28 | % | ='Assumptions'!$F$178 | ='Assumptions'!$F$184 | ='Assumptions'!$F$190 |  |  | 
 | Supply adjustment, FY28 | % volume | ='Assumptions'!$F$179 | ='Assumptions'!$F$185 | ='Assumptions'!$F$191 |  |  | 
 | Market revenue FY28 | NZ$M | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$40 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$59 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$78 |  |  | 
 | Market revenue FY28 | US$M | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$43 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$62 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$81 |  |  | 
 | Market revenue FY30 | US$M | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$43 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$62 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$H$81 |  |  | 
 | FY28 revenue vs central | % | =0 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$59/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$40-1 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$78/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$40-1 |  |  | 
 | Consequence (what changes) |  | Category value grows on mix uplift as the cheapest tier exits retail; converters (incl. Aurora, if on time) hold share; premium settles ~12%. | Market revenue holds UP on tight pricing (+8% cage-free gates, 12-18 mo) but laggards eat the downside: stranded colony volume to industrial clearance at ~NZ$0.30/egg; AU imports take the value tier; premium holds ~14.5%. | Category revenue ~5% below central by FY28; FR-long producers (Aurora: 30% FR book at commodity tier) bear margin compression; colony+FR two-sided squeeze. |  |  | 
 | Breakeven boundaries (what flips the scenario): |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | S1 -> S2 boundary: cohort conversion completed by deadline falls below ~90% |  | =('Assumptions'!$D$192+'Assumptions'!$D$193)/2 |  |  |  |  | Binding constraints: consents lodged by ~Q2 2026 (non-notified path - see block C) AND DOC ordered >=7.5 months ahead AND equipment slot held. Any one failing tips the named-producer laggards (Aurora, Heyden) into the gap.
 | S1 -> S3 boundary: barn net additions overrun colony withdrawal + demand growth (~+1.4% pa) |  | =('Assumptions'!$F$177+'Assumptions'!$F$189)/2 |  |  |  |  | FY28 premium below ~10.5% signals collapse territory. The central 12% holds ONLY because 6-10 long-tail exits remove marginal supply - without that, FY28 premium would print 9-10% (Calthorpe Part 3 [00:31:58]). Track quarterly via scan-data FR-vs-barn shelf spread / 1.435.
C.  AURORA COLONY-TO-BARN PROGRAMME - CAPEX & TIMELINE BRIDGE  (the deal-defining variable; Vivian must-test #2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Aurora colony birds to convert | birds | ='Assumptions'!$D$120*'Assumptions'!$D$121 |  |  |  |  | 610k x 40% = ~244k birds (Calthorpe worked 240-244k).
 | Conversion capex - expert-anchored range | NZ$M | ='Transition_Scenarios'!$D$47*'Assumptions'!$E$141/1000000 | ='Transition_Scenarios'!$D$47*'Assumptions'!$D$141/1000000 | ='Transition_Scenarios'!$D$47*'Assumptions'!$F$141/1000000 | low / mid / high |  | NZ$45-65/bird all-in (Part 2; EPF corroborates); Aurora expected mid-range NZ$52-58 given late-2010s shed envelopes.
 | Conversion capex - mid case | US$M | =E48*'Assumptions'!$D$20 |  |  |  |  | At FY27 house FX (capex lands FY26-27).
 | Broker / IM capex claim | NZ$M | ='Assumptions'!$E$142 | ='Assumptions'!$D$142 | ='Assumptions'!$F$142 | =E48/'Assumptions'!$D$142-1 |  | CONTESTED: IM NZ$8-10M implies NZ$33-41/bird - below any expert/industry anchor. Expert mid sits ~49% above the broker mid. Capex bridge = confirmatory request.
 | Capex mid as multiple of FY24 reported EBITDA | x | =E48/'Assumptions'!$D$129 |  |  |  |  | ~1.2x EBITDA - fundable (family unlevered, self-funded posture per Part 2 [00:39:24]); the binding constraint is TIME, not capital. Return = continued retail access, not incremental margin - bundle with automation for uplift.
 | Timeline bridge to 31 Dec 2027: |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Months remaining (from model date 31 May 2026) |  | =ROUND((DATE(2027,12,31)-DATE(2026,5,31))/30.44,0) |  |  |  |  | 19 months.
 | Runway needed - consents non-notified + build (DOC in parallel) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$144+'Assumptions'!$D$143 |  |  |  |  | 5 + 15 = 20 months; DOC 6-9 mo and equipment 9-14 mo sit inside the build window only if ordered at consent grant.
 | Runway needed - consents publicly notified + build |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$145+'Assumptions'!$D$143 |  |  |  |  | ~25.5 months.
 | Slack vs deadline (non-notified / notified) |  | =D54-D55 | =D54-D56 |  |  |  | NEGATIVE on both paths if consents are only being lodged now - a start-today programme cannot complete by end-2027 (Calthorpe: P=~0%). Only a pre-existing (private/pre-lodgement) consent position keeps end-2027 alive at ~50/50.
 | Consent-lodgement scenarios: |  | Completion date | Slippage (months) | P(on time) | EBITDA impact (NZ$M) |  | 
 | (a) Lodged on/before Q4 2025 (not visible in public register) |  | =DATE(2027,11,30) | =0 | ='Assumptions'!$D$150 | =MAX(0,E60)/12*'Assumptions'!$D$149 |  | IM claims "consents in active progress; build from Q3 2026" - consistent with (a) but unverified; no lodgement found in Selwyn or Waikato registers as of 11 May 2026.
 | (b) Lodge June 2026, non-notified, best case |  | =EDATE(DATE(2026,6,1),'Assumptions'!$D$144+'Assumptions'!$D$143) | =('Assumptions'!$D$144+'Assumptions'!$D$143)-D54 | ='Assumptions'!$D$151 | =MAX(0,E61)/12*'Assumptions'!$D$149 |  | Feb 2028 at best -> ~1-2 months stranded; assumes zero DOC / equipment queue - optimistic.
 | (c) Lodge June 2026, realistic (DOC tight + equipment queue) |  | =EDATE(DATE(2026,6,1),24) | =24-D54 | ='Assumptions'!$D$151 | =MAX(0,E62)/12*'Assumptions'!$D$149 |  | Calthorpe end-to-end 24-30 months -> mid-to-late 2028; 5-11 months of stranded colony volume.
 | EBITDA-at-risk per year of slippage (stranded-volume math) | NZ$M/yr | ='Assumptions'!$E$149 | ='Assumptions'!$D$149 | ='Assumptions'!$F$149 | ='Assumptions'!$D$149/'Assumptions'!$D$129 |  | 244k birds ~70M eggs; retail gate ~NZ$0.50/egg -> industrial clearance ~NZ$0.30 = ~NZ$14M revenue, NZ$3-4M EBITDA = ~32% of FY24 EBITDA per slip-year. FS/industrial cannot absorb the displaced volume (Marsden [00:40:20]).
D.  MANDATORY SENSITIVITY TABLES  (standards s.3.2: FX / price tier / transition timing - 3 cases + explicit breakeven each; plus cost-side & supply-side stresses) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | T1.  FX - NZD/USD at FY28 (USD-reported outputs) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Case |  | NZD/USD | Market rev FY28 (US$M) | Aurora EBITDA FY28 (US$M) | vs central |  | 
 | NZD weak |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$195 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$40*D68 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89*D68 | =D68/'Assumptions'!$D$21-1 |  | 
 | Central (house FY28 forecast) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$21 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$40*D69 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89*D69 | =D69/'Assumptions'!$D$21-1 |  | 
 | NZD strong |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$196 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$40*D70 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89*D70 | =D70/'Assumptions'!$D$21-1 |  | 
 | BREAKEVEN: rate at which FY28 market revenue (US$) merely matches FY24 actual (US$) |  | ='Historical_Sizing'!$E$33*'Assumptions'!$D$17/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$40 |  |  |  |  | ~0.52 - i.e. ~16% below the house FY28 forecast of 0.620. Above ~0.52 the USD-reported market grows vs FY24; NZD depreciation is the channel through which an NZD-stable market shrinks in USD terms (it did FY23-FY25).
 | T2.  PRICE TIER - FR premium over barn at FY28 (S1 mechanics, premium isolated) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Case |  | FY28 premium | Market rev FY28 (NZ$M) | US$M | Aurora EBITDA FY28 (NZ$M) |  | 
 | Collapse (Calthorpe downside 8-10%) |  | ='Assumptions'!$F$189 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$22*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37*('Assumptions'!$F$174*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$32+'Assumptions'!$F$175*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33+'Assumptions'!$F$176*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33*(1+D75)) | =E75*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89+(D75-'Assumptions'!$F$177)*('Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$39*'Assumptions'!$D$59*'Assumptions'!$D$123)*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33 |  | 
 | Central (trajectory 18->14->12) |  | ='Assumptions'!$F$177 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$22*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37*('Assumptions'!$F$174*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$32+'Assumptions'!$F$175*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33+'Assumptions'!$F$176*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33*(1+D76)) | =E76*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89+(D76-'Assumptions'!$F$177)*('Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$39*'Assumptions'!$D$59*'Assumptions'!$D$123)*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33 |  | 
 | Tight supply (upside 14-15%) |  | ='Assumptions'!$F$183 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$22*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37*('Assumptions'!$F$174*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$32+'Assumptions'!$F$175*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33+'Assumptions'!$F$176*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33*(1+D77)) | =E77*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89+(D77-'Assumptions'!$F$177)*('Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$39*'Assumptions'!$D$59*'Assumptions'!$D$123)*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33 |  | 
 | Sensitivity per premium point: market / Aurora EBITDA |  |  | =0.01*'Assumptions'!$F$176*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$D$37*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$22 |  | =0.01*('Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$39*'Assumptions'!$D$59*'Assumptions'!$D$123)*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33 |  | ~NZ$3M market / ~NZ$0.2M Aurora EBITDA per premium point.
 | BREAKEVEN: premium at which Aurora FY28 EBITDA margin hits the 8% industry floor |  | ='Assumptions'!$F$177-('Assumptions'!$F$152-0.08)*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$87/(('Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$39*'Assumptions'!$D$59*'Assumptions'!$D$123)*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$33) |  |  |  |  | Lands deeply negative (~-6%): premium compression ALONE cannot push Aurora to the industry floor - it is a ~NZ$0.2M/pp drag, not a solvency event. The EBITDA-defining variable is transition timing (T3) - premium risk compounds it but does not substitute for it.
 | T3.  TRANSITION TIMING - months of slippage past 1 Jan 2028 (Aurora) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Case |  | Slippage (months) | Aurora EBITDA FY28 (NZ$M) | US$M | % of plan |  | 
 | On time (converted by 31 Dec 2027) |  | =0 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89-D83/12*'Assumptions'!$D$149 | =E83*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =E83/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 |  | 
 | 6-month slip (early-2028 completion) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$197 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89-D84/12*'Assumptions'!$D$149 | =E84*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =E84/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 |  | 
 | 12-month slip (start-now realistic case) |  | ='Assumptions'!$D$198 | ='Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89-D85/12*'Assumptions'!$D$149 | =E85*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =E85/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 |  | 
 | BREAKEVEN: latest consent-lodgement consistent with on-time completion |  | =EDATE(DATE(2027,12,31),-('Assumptions'!$D$144+'Assumptions'!$D$143)) |  |  |  |  | Apr 2026 on the best-case non-notified path - already passed at model date. End-2027 stays live ONLY if consents were lodged/pre-lodged before now (P=~50% per Calthorpe); starting now -> 2028 (P=~0%). THE single highest-value confirmatory question: one day of council-register work + one direct question to management.
 | T4.  INPUT-COST & SUPPLY-SIDE STRESSES (Aurora FY28 EBITDA deltas; carried for the underwriting horizon) |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | Stress |  | Delta (NZ$M) | Delta (US$M) | % of plan EBITDA | Recurring? |  | 
 | Feed +10% spot spike (2-quarter pass-through lag) |  | =-'Assumptions'!$D$161/10000*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$87*0.5 | =D90*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =D90/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 | episodic |  | Feed = 55-65% of variable cost; 80-110bps gross-margin hit for 1-2 quarters before Foodstuffs/Woolworths contract reviews catch up; no NZ grain futures hedge exists; Aurora holds 4-6 wks inventory vs Mainland captive 8-10 wks. Trigger precedent: 2023 dry summer / AU import tightness (wheat >NZ$540/t).
 | Electricity re-tariff step-up at late-2027 renewal (FY28 onward) |  | =-'Assumptions'!$D$164/10000*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$87*(1-'Assumptions'!$D$123) | =D91*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =D91/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 | recurring |  | Aurora renewed pre-spike in 2024; re-tariffs into the post-2025 price level (~+18-20% cumulative CY24-26) right as the new barn footprint lifts load. 150-220bps on the ~70% non-FR (climate-controlled) book. Lands with the new owner.
 | ETS re-inclusion of agriculture (downside; 2026 election trigger) |  | =-'Assumptions'!$D$167 | =D92*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =D92/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 | recurring if enacted |  | Currently NIL (removed 2024) but reversibly so; NZ$0.5-1.5M pa = 5-15% of FY24 EBITDA depending on scoping/free allocation. Downside scenario from FY28, not central.
 | Biosecurity event on one Aurora site (one-off) |  | =-'Assumptions'!$D$168 | =D93*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =D93/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 | one-off |  | H7N6-cleanout actuals NZ$2.8-3.4M (cull, clean, repopulate, interruption) = 25-35% of EBITDA in the impact year; two-site footprint halves but does not remove single-site concentration; insurance hardened +25-35% post-2024.
 | DOC supply re-tightening adds 2 quarters to conversion |  | =-0.5*'Assumptions'!$D$149 | =D94*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =D94/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 | episodic |  | Waitlist normalised to 4-5 months by mid-2026 but re-tightens if big producers hit the order book together into 2027 (EW Group controls ~75-80% of global layer genetics; NZ runs through Northern Hylines). Equivalent to 6 months of T3 slippage.
 | Combined recurring downside (feed annualised + electricity + ETS) |  | =-'Assumptions'!$D$161/10000*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$87-'Assumptions'!$D$164/10000*'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$87*(1-'Assumptions'!$D$123)-'Assumptions'!$D$167 | =D95*'Assumptions'!$D$21 | =D95/'Forecast_FY26_30'!$F$89 |  |  | Order ~-NZ$3M = ~-25% of plan FY28 EBITDA if all three recur unmitigated - before any T3 slippage. Offsets in base: manure offtake +NZ$0.3-0.45M pa already inside reported EBITDA. Mitigants (post-close): feed-mill integration, multi-site tariff bundling, pass-through renegotiation.
E.  CONFIRMATORY-DD DATA REQUESTS THAT REFRESH THIS MODEL  (open questions - the IC owns the verdict) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | 1. Consent lodgement evidence - Selwyn + Waikato registers and any pre-lodgement engagement with council planners (resolves T3; Calthorpe: "Mark would know within 30 seconds"). |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | 2. Audited top-10 customer breakdown incl. Foodstuffs NI-vs-SI split - the 60-70% top-3 concentration figure is directional, not a model input of record. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | 3. FY24 adjusted-EBITDA bridge (NZ$10.8M reported vs NZ$12.6M adjusted) and audited volumes - resolves the 16-18% share triangulation spread. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | 4. Equipment order confirmation (Big Dutchman tranche, commissioning slot) + DOC order status vs the 9-14 month lead time. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | 5. Supply-agreement terms with Foodstuffs / Woolworths NZ - duration, notice, any cage-free clauses already inserted; PL-vs-branded gate spreads. |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
 | 6. Electricity contract terms and re-tariff exposure at late-2027 renewal; feed-supply terms (Farmlands / NRM) and pass-through mechanics. |  |  |  |  |  |  |