# market_model.xlsx 中文阅读版

- 原始文件：`source_repo/submissions/claude-4-opus-thinking/w1_t2/submission/market_model.xlsx`
- 处理方式：本地提取原文并添加中文结构说明
- 阅读提示：这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 中文结构说明

这是源项目中的结构化资料。中文阅读版保留可提取的原始内容，并在开头说明其在评测中的用途；数值、文件名、专有名词和公式不做擅自改写。

## 原文提取

## 工作表：Executive Summary

NEW ZEALAND EGG MARKET MODEL |  | 
Halberd Capital Partners - Project Albatross |  | 
Preliminary Commercial Due Diligence |  | 
KEY MARKET METRICS |  | 
Total NZ Layer Flock (M hens) | 3.75 | Industry expert consensus
Annual Production FY26 (M dozens) | 195 | At 52 dozen/hen/year
Market Value FY26 (NZ) | 810 | At NZ.15/dozen wholesale
5-yr Market CAGR (FY24-29) | 5.8% | Volume + price growth
AURORA POSITION |  | 
Volume Share | 17-19% | Based on 610k birds
FY24 Revenue (NZ) | 84.6 | Per IM
FY24 Adj EBITDA (NZ) | 12.6 | Per IM
EBITDA Margin | 14.9% | Above industry avg
Production Mix | 50% colony / 20% barn / 30% FR | 305k colony birds
CAGE-BAN ECONOMICS |  | 
Colony Conversion Requirement | 305,000 birds | By end-2027
Capex Required (NZ) | 13.7-16.8 | At 5-55/bird
Capex/EBITDA Multiple | 1.1-1.3x | Material but manageable
SOURCES & METHODOLOGY |  | 
• Market size: Industry expert interviews, NZ Egg Producers Federation data |  | 
• Aurora data: Information Memorandum, management projections |  | 
• Pricing: Retail scan data Q1 2026, industry benchmarks |  | 
• Assumptions: Halberd Capital central planning assumptions |  | 
• Model date: Week 1 preliminary CDD |  | 

## 工作表：Market Sizing

NEW ZEALAND EGG MARKET - HISTORICAL & FORECAST |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28
VOLUME METRICS |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
National Flock (M hens) | 3.65 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.76 | 3.82 | 3.86 | 3.89 | 3.92
Productivity (doz/hen/yr) | 50.0 | 51.0 | 51.5 | 52.0 | 52.0 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 53.0
Total Production (M doz) | 182.5 | 188.2 | 191.1 | 195.5 | 198.6 | 202.7 | 204.2 | 207.8
PRICING |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Avg Wholesale (NZ$/doz) | 3.80 | 3.95 | 4.05 | 4.15 | 4.20 | 4.35 | 4.45 | 4.55
MARKET VALUE |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Total Value (NZ) | 694 | 743 | 774 | 811 | 834 | 882 | 909 | 945
CHANNEL SPLIT (NZ) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Retail (72.5%) | 503 | 539 | 561 | 588 | 605 | 639 | 659 | 685
Foodservice (15%) | 104 | 112 | 116 | 122 | 125 | 132 | 136 | 142
Industrial (10%) | 69 | 74 | 77 | 81 | 83 | 88 | 91 | 95
Direct (2.5%) | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24
GROWTH DECOMPOSITION |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Component | FY24-29 CAGR | Contribution |  |  |  |  |  | 
Volume Growth | 2.4% | 40% |  |  |  |  |  | 
Price Growth | 3.3% | 60% |  |  |  |  |  | 
Total Market Growth | 5.8% | 100% |  |  |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Production Mix

PRODUCTION SYSTEM MIX |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
System | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28
% OF NATIONAL FLOCK |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Colony Cage | 25 | 30 | 40 | 38 | 35 | 30 | 10 | 0
Barn | 35 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 45 | 60 | 65
Free-Range | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 35
Conventional | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
VOLUME BY SYSTEM (M doz) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
Colony Cage | 45.6 | 56.5 | 76.4 | 74.3 | 69.5 | 60.8 | 20.4 | 0.0
Barn | 63.9 | 65.9 | 66.9 | 72.3 | 79.5 | 91.2 | 122.5 | 135.0
Free-Range | 45.6 | 47.0 | 47.8 | 48.9 | 49.7 | 50.7 | 61.3 | 72.7

## 工作表：Aurora Position

AURORA EGGS - COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS |  |  |  |  |  | 
FINANCIAL FORECAST |  |  |  |  |  | 
Metric | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E
Revenue (NZ) | 84.6 | 90.5 | 96.8 | 103.5 | 110.7 | 118.4
YoY Growth % |  | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0%
EBITDA (NZ) | 12.6 | 13.6 | 14.5 | 13.8 | 16.6 | 18.4
EBITDA Margin % | 14.9% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 15.5%
EBITDA Growth % |  | 7.9% | 6.6% | -4.8% | 20.3% | 10.8%
Capex (NZ) | 2.5 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3.5 | 3
Capex % Revenue | 3.0% | 3.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 2.5%
PRODUCTION METRICS |  |  |  |  |  | 
Volume (M dozens) | 13.1 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17.1 | 18.3
Implied price/dozen | 6.46 | 6.46 | 6.45 | 6.47 | 6.47 | 6.47
SYSTEM MIX EVOLUTION |  |  |  |  |  | 
Colony % | 50% | 50% | 45% | 20% | 0% | 0%
Barn % | 20% | 20% | 25% | 50% | 65% | 65%
Free-Range % | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 35% | 35%
COLONY CONVERSION ANALYSIS |  |  |  |  |  | 
Parameter | Value | Notes |  |  |  | 
Current colony birds | 305,000 | 50% of flock |  |  |  | 
Target completion | End-2027 | Retailer deadline |  |  |  | 
Capex per bird | NZ0 | Base case |  |  |  | 
Total capex | NZ5.3M | Before contingency |  |  |  | 
Contingency (10%) | NZ.5M | Standard allowance |  |  |  | 
Total with contingency | NZ6.8M |  |  |  |  | 
Financing assumptions |  |  |  |  |  | 
Debt funding | 70% | NZ1.8M |  |  |  | 
Equity/Cash | 30% | NZ.0M |  |  |  | 
Interest rate | 7.5% | NZ corporate |  |  |  | 
Annual debt service | NZ/bin/bash.9M | Interest only |  |  |  | 

## 工作表：Cage-Ban Scenarios

CAGE-BAN TRANSITION SCENARIOS |  |  |  | 
SCENARIO ANALYSIS - COLONY TO BARN CONVERSION |  |  |  | 
Scenario | Base Case | Accelerated | Delayed | Notes
TIMING |  |  |  | 
Conversion Start | Q2 FY26 | Q4 FY25 | Q4 FY26 | Permit/DOC availability
Conversion Complete | Q2 FY28 | Q4 FY27 | Q4 FY28 | Must meet 2027 deadline
Duration (months) | 24 | 18 | 24 | 
CAPEX (NZ) |  |  |  | 
Per Bird | 0 | 5 | 5 | Rush premium vs efficiency
Total Aurora | 15.3 | 16.8 | 13.7 | Based on 305k birds
% of FY26 Revenue | 15.8% | 17.4% | 14.1% | 
OPERATIONAL IMPACT |  |  |  | 
Production disruption | 5-8% | 8-12% | 3-5% | Of affected capacity
Transition flock mortality | 2-3% | 3-4% | 1-2% | Industry benchmarks
FINANCIAL IMPACT |  |  |  | 
EBITDA impact FY27 | -8% | -12% | -5% | Disruption + financing
EBITDA recovery FY28 | Full | Full | Partial | 
Market share risk | Low | Medium | High | Retailer compliance

## 工作表：Sensitivities

KEY SENSITIVITIES & RISK ANALYSIS |  |  |  | 
INPUT COST SENSITIVITIES |  |  |  | 
Factor | Base Case | % of Costs | Impact of ±10% Change | EBITDA Impact
Feed Costs | NZ80/tonne | 60-65% | ±6.0% on costs | ±6-7% EBITDA
Labour | NZ8/hour | 15-18% | ±1.5% on costs | ±1.5-2% EBITDA
Energy | 26c/kWh | 8-10% | ±0.9% on costs | ±1% EBITDA
Packaging | Index 100 | 5-6% | ±0.5% on costs | ±0.5% EBITDA
DEMAND SENSITIVITIES |  |  |  | 
Factor | Current State | FY28-30 Risk | Volume Impact | Revenue Impact
Free-Range Premium | 25-30% over barn | 15-20% compression | -2% volume shift | -5% revenue/mix
Plant Substitutes | <1% share | 1.5-2.5% share | -2% volume | -2% revenue
Cost of Living | Moderate | High sensitivity | -3% premium volume | -4% revenue
Export Competition | Limited | Growing | -1% local price | -1% revenue
OPERATIONAL RISKS |  |  |  | 
Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation | Cost
HPAI Outbreak | Medium | High | Biosecurity upgrade | 3-5% opex
Feed Supply Shock | Low | High | Multiple suppliers | Included
Regulatory Change | Low | Medium | Industry engagement | Minimal
Key Customer Loss | Low | High | Diversification | Commercial

## 工作表：Assumptions

KEY ASSUMPTIONS & METHODOLOGY |  |  | 
MARKET SIZING ASSUMPTIONS |  |  | 
Parameter | Value/Range | Source | Notes
National Flock Size | 3.75M hens | Industry expert | MPI reports 3.4-3.5M conservatively
Productivity | 52 doz/hen/yr | Industry standard | Modern systems average
Market Growth | 1.5-2% volume CAGR | Historical + outlook | Population + consumption
Price Growth | 2.5-3% CAGR | CPI + premium shift | Weighted average basis
PRODUCTION MIX ASSUMPTIONS |  |  | 
Conventional phase-out | Complete by 2023 | Regulation | Animal welfare code
Colony phase-out | By end-2027 | Retailer pledge | Major chains commitment
Barn growth | 35% to 65% share | Capacity planning | Fills colony exit gap
Free-range stable | 25-35% band | Consumer segment | Premium positioning
AURORA-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS |  |  | 
Total flock | 610,000 birds | Expert validation | 17-19% national share
Colony exposure | 50% (305k birds) | Management estimate | Requiring conversion
Conversion capex | NZ5-55/bird | Industry benchmark | Like-for-like basis
Conversion timeline | 18-24 months | Operational reality | Permits + construction
FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS |  |  | 
NZD/USD FX | 0.585-0.625 | Halberd central | For USD reporting
WACC | 10.5% | Halberd NZ rate | Risk-adjusted
Terminal growth | 2.5% | Long-term CPI | Conservative