# halberd_internal_aurora_brief_scanned.pdf 中文翻译

- 原始文件：`source_repo/source_files/week/halberd_internal_aurora_brief_scanned.pdf`
- 页数：1 页

## 原文第 1 页

HALBERD CAPITAL PARTNERS · INTERNAL · Project Albatross　　　　　　　　 V. Holst · internal screening · 4 May 2026

# Halberd Capital Partners Internal - Aurora eggs preliminary DD brief

From: V. Holst (Sector Partner - Consumer & Agri)  
To: Aurora deal team  
Project: Project Albatross  
Date: 4 May 2026

## Background

卖方接洽于 4 月 20 日从 Tasman Mercantile（N. Chen）收到。Aurora Eggs - 新西兰带壳蛋生产商，由家族控制（第三代 McKenna），二级市场 NZ volume（约为新西兰总量的 ~17-19%），总部位于 Mainland Poultry。Headline financials：NZ$84.6M revenue，NZ$10.8M FY24 EBITDA（12.8% margin），2 sites，约 610k layer hens，40-30-30 colony / barn / free-range mix。

## Why we're looking at this

先判断该单位经济性是否能在 post colony-risk haircut 后成立。Aurora 的主要商业压力是 Phase 2 retailer-driven cage-free deadline（end-2027）对其约 40% colony exposure 的影响。因此，核心问题是 deal-defining diligence question。

## Must-test hypotheses (we falsify or confirm in the prelim work)

1. Free-range premium 30%+ durable forward - broker says yes；全球 cage-free transition data 和近期新西兰零售价格对话表明，压缩正在发生。Push for transaction-price evidence, not shelf data。
2. Aurora colony-to-barn complete by end-2027 - broker says clear path；capex magnitude、DOC supply lead times、planning consent timing all push back。Pressure-test the bridge：they have lodged consents? When does build start?
3. Aurora #2 by NZ volume（~17-19% share），behind Mainland and ahead of Heyden - public reports don't show them；expert calls anchor positioning。Treat them as additive to the public roster（Mainland，Heyden，Better Eggs，Zeagold，Henergy）- don't shrink real producers' shares to fit Aurora in。

## Valuation

Broker asking 12-14x FY24 EBITDA = NZ$130-150M EV。Expect colony-risk haircut：model 8-10x = NZ$80-110M fair value range。Comp set：Cal-Maine（US，~50x scale，haircut accordingly）+ AU/NZ poultry adjacency（Inghams broker - adjust for product mix）+ Navis Capital → Mainland Poultry / Zeagold（April 2017 - only true NZ-scale precedent）。

## #1 confirmatory-DD priority

Customer concentration。Insider read：top 3 retailers ~70% of Aurora revenue（heavy on Foodstuffs + Woolworths NZ）。Get audited top-10 in confirmatory。

## Reminders

- Treat Aurora as additive to public producer roster。
- MPI 33/33/34 production-mix figure is from 2022 - Phase 2 has shifted things; cross-check against current commentary。
- NO recommendations at this stage。Findings + risks + open questions only。The IC decides。

- V.H.

页脚：page 1 · Halberd internal · not for distribution