Delivered-To: deal-team-albatross@halberd.com Received: by mail-prv-eu-1.halberd.com with SMTP id 9f5e1c; Mon, 04 May 2026 11:42:18 -0400 (EDT) From: Daniel Reyes To: Vivian Holst Cc: deal-team-albatross@halberd.com Subject: Re: Project Albatross - Vivian's must-test list Date: Mon, 04 May 2026 11:42:16 -0400 Message-ID: References: In-Reply-To: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Got it. Iris will lock in the expert calls today (industry association plus the insider you flagged); first findings sync on Wednesday. Will keep an eye on the comp-haircut and customer-concentration items specifically. - Daniel > On 4 May 2026, at 10:38, Vivian Holst wrote: > > Daniel - agreed on logistics. Let me put down what I actually want this > deal team to falsify or confirm before Friday. Three hypotheses, in > order of how much they move the needle: > > 1. The free-range premium has been ~30%+ historically and continues at > that level forward. Broker says yes. My read of the global cage-free > transition data is that compression is happening; Australia and the > EU markets show the premium narrowing as barn supply scales up. We > need the insider's view on what NZ retailers are actually paying right > now versus headline shelf prices. Push for transaction-price evidence, > not just retail shelf data. > > 2. Aurora's colony-to-barn transition will be complete by end-2027. The > broker is breezy about this. Our Operating Partners are sceptical - > Marcus reckons a colony-to-barn build cycle is 12-18 months once > consents are in hand, plus DOC supply lead times. Pressure-test the > bridge to 2027 specifically. If the McKennas haven't started planning > consents yet, the timeline is mathematically tight. > > 3. Aurora is the #2 NZ producer at ~17-19% of national volume, behind > Mainland and ahead of Heyden, Better Eggs, Zeagold, and Henergy. They > don't show up in analyst coverage because they're family-controlled > and don't disclose, so we have to triangulate. Treat them as additive > to the public producer roster - Mainland, Heyden, Better Eggs, > Zeagold, Henergy - don't shrink any of those to fit Aurora in. The > insider should know everyone's numbers; insist on producer-by- > producer estimates. > > A few process / framing things I want everyone to remember: > > - Cal-Maine is at roughly 50x our target's scale and they're a US > commodity producer. Haircut benchmarks accordingly. Inghams is > broiler not layer; product mix differs. The only NZ-scale comp we > have is Navis Capital's Mainland Poultry / Zeagold acquisition from > 2017 - that's the most useful precedent we have. > > - Customer concentration is my number one priority for confirmatory > DD. The insider can give us a directional read but we need the > audited top-10 from management. If the top three retailers are 70%+ > of revenue (which is what I suspect from how this market is > structured) it materially changes the deal. > > - The MPI 33/33/34 production-mix figure is from 2022. Phase 2 has > shifted things and the insider can give us a current-era read. > Don't anchor on the official baseline if it's stale. > > - On valuation, the broker asking is 12-14x FY24 EBITDA. We should > model what we believe fair value is post-haircut for the colony > exposure - my expectation is more like 8-10x. The deck doesn't have > to land on a specific number, but it should make the haircut > argument legible. > > Send draft outputs Wednesday, final by Friday morning. > > - Vivian > > >> On 4 May 2026, at 09:51, Daniel Reyes wrote: >> >> Vivian - kickoff email is out. Two-week sprint to indicative bid, >> standard pre-LOI brief, four workstreams in parallel. Wednesday checkpoint >> with you. Iris is on the expert-call slate, Theo on the model, Maya on the >> deck, I'll own the briefing video. >> >> What do you want us to specifically pressure-test? >> >> - Daniel >> >> >>> On 3 May 2026, at 17:14, Vivian Holst wrote: >>> >>> Deal team - copying you on the sell-side outreach Nicholas Chen sent >>> me last week. Project Albatross - NZ shell egg producer, family- >>> controlled, #2 by volume behind Mainland. Looks tractable as a tuck-in for >>> the agri platform if the unit economics hold up. >>> >>> Daniel - let's screen this. Standard preliminary outside-in CDD, >>> two-week sprint, indicative bid in four weeks. >>> >>> - Vivian Daniel Reyes Principal, Halberd Capital Partners